TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #12457052
Played Aug 19Finished
Serhii Kiilo
Home
5.00
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 2
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
5111012811––––
Roman Horokh
Away
1.14
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:05 and never touched — 95.0% is still 95.0%
Graded at full timeRoman Horokh to win
95.0%
95.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingSerhii Kiilo above · Roman Horokh below
Set 1 · 5-11
Set 2 · 10-12
Set 3 · 8-11
Point 57 set 3, 8-11 — our read held Roman Horokh at 95.0%
57 points played in total.
H2H Serhii Kiilo 9–83 Roman Horokh Serhii Kiilo has won 9 of their 92 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:05What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.14 (81%)
Horokh
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
9-83 in 92
Horokh
Correct
gap of 74 in 92, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kiilo 1720 vs Horokh 1936
Horokh
Correct
both rated, 216 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kiilo 60% vs Horokh 20%
Kiilo
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kiilo 30% vs Horokh 30%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Kiilo +2 · Horokh -3
Horokh
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 95% — Strong (leans Horokh)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Horokh form (20%) is below what odds imply (88%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKiilo 5.00 / Horokh 1.14
Signal prob.5% / 95%
Edge (Horokh)+13.6pp
Setka Cup · #12457052
Kiilo5.00
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog19% won 31 of 166
Down 0–1, comes back11% 14 of 128
Down 0–2, comes back4% 3 of 84
Horokh1.14
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite64% won 291 of 456
Up 2–0, closes it95% 155 of 163
Up 1–0, closes it80% 223 of 280
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKiilo2wins
AwayHorokh8wins
2 of 10 to a deciderHorokh leads 8–2, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKiilon = 0, below the 3 needed
AwayHorokh80%8 of 10
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kiilo0Horokh10n = 10Horokh took 10 of 10
S2Kiilo5Horokh5n = 10split evenly
S3Kiilo4Horokh6n = 10Horokh took 6 of 10
S4Kiilo4Horokh3n = 7Kiilo took 4 of 7
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricKiiloHorokhK − HBasisWins28−6in 10 meetingsFirst set010−10of 10Avg pointsper match33.238.7−5.5per matchSweeps03−33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKiiloHorokhBasisWin rate · lifetime104 / 387 vs 701 / 126126.9%55.6%104 / 387 vs 701 / 1261Avg sets wonper match1.42.1per matchAvg pointsper match34.637.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
HorokhKiilo 5.00/Horokh 1.14
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
95%
Horokh · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Horokh won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LJul 24 · 07:30S. Kiilo—5690R. Horokh—1111113
WJul 16 · 12:00S. Kiilo—91111143R. Horokh—1177121
LJul 6 · 11:58S. Kiilo—561291R. Horokh—111110113
LJul 2 · 14:30S. Kiilo—41171162R. Horokh—117117113
LJun 30 · 14:30S. Kiilo—101360R. Horokh—1215113
LJun 29 · 16:58S. Kiilo—1311451R. Horokh—15511113
WJun 29 · 16:00S. Kiilo—71111113R. Horokh—114941
LJun 16 · 12:00S. Kiilo—1111671R. Horokh—13511113
LJun 10 · 16:00S. Kiilo—3760R. Horokh—1111113
LJun 8 · 16:00S. Kiilo—611111142R. Horokh—111392113
S. Kiilo10
LSep 8 · 12:00S. Kiilo5.0011961162R. Horokh1.14911118113LSep 2 · 17:05S. Kushnirenko1.368111511113S. Kiilo3.00119131382LSep 2 · 16:30D. Kryshtal1.2512912113S. Kiilo3.7510111021WSep 2 · 15:00S. Kiilo1.611111113M. Levytskii2.208780WSep 2 · 13:30S. Kiilo3.251211113S. Kushnirenko1.3310880LSep 2 · 12:00S. Kiilo5.00141111952R. Horokh1.14167711113WAug 19 · 17:03S. Kiilo3.401181113113S. Kushnirenko1.3071171562WAug 19 · 15:00D. Kryshtal1.2271161152S. Kiilo4.00117114113WAug 19 · 14:00V. Komar1.281110961S. Kiilo3.5031211113LAug 19 · 12:30S. Kushnirenko1.33111011113S. Kiilo3.25712951
R. Horokh10
WSep 8 · 12:00S. Kiilo5.0011961162R. Horokh1.14911118113WSep 2 · 17:33R. Horokh1.501111113D. Kryshtal2.506760WSep 2 · 16:00M. Levytskii6.5079111152R. Horokh1.10111157113LSep 2 · 14:30S. Kushnirenko2.751011811113R. Horokh1.4012511572WSep 2 · 13:00D. Kryshtal2.25101190R. Horokh1.571213113WSep 2 · 12:00S. Kiilo5.00141111952R. Horokh1.14167711113LAug 31 · 17:14R. Horokh1.402101191S. Kushnirenko2.7511127113WAug 31 · 16:00D. Yurkov2.2061160R. Horokh1.611113113WAug 31 · 14:30S. Kushnirenko2.759111091R. Horokh1.4011912113WAug 31 · 13:00D. Kryshtal2.509101181R. Horokh1.5011128113
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