TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #12398739
Played Aug 11Finished
Dmytro Kryshtal
Home
1.25
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
114115111––––
Serhii Kiilo
Away
3.75
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:22 and never touched — 86.0% is still 86.0%
Graded at full timeDmytro Kryshtal to win
86.0%
86.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingDmytro Kryshtal above · Serhii Kiilo below
Set 1 · 11-4
Set 2 · 11-5
Set 3 · 11-1
Point 43 set 3, 11-1 — our read held Dmytro Kryshtal at 86.0%
43 points played in total.
H2H Dmytro Kryshtal 25–7 Serhii Kiilo Serhii Kiilo has won 7 of their 32 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:22What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.25 (75%)
Kryshtal
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
25-7 in 32
Kryshtal
Correct
gap of 18 in 32, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kryshtal 1888 vs Kiilo 1689
Kryshtal
Correct
both rated, 199 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kryshtal 40% vs Kiilo 20%
Kryshtal
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kryshtal 40% vs Kiilo 30%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Kryshtal +1 · Kiilo +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 86% — Strong (leans Kryshtal)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kryshtal form (40%) is below what odds imply (80%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKryshtal 1.25 / Kiilo 3.75
Signal prob.86% / 14%
Edge (Kryshtal)+11.0pp
Setka Cup · #12398739
Kryshtal1.25
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite57% won 143 of 249
Up 2–0, closes it94% 82 of 87
Up 1–0, closes it76% 114 of 151
Kiilo3.75
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog19% won 30 of 162
Down 0–1, comes back11% 14 of 125
Down 0–2, comes back4% 3 of 82
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKryshtal7wins
AwayKiilo3wins
2 of 10 to a deciderKryshtal leads 7–3, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKryshtal66.7%6 of 9
AwayKiilon = 1, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kryshtal9Kiilo1n = 10Kryshtal took 9 of 10
S2Kryshtal7Kiilo3n = 10Kryshtal took 7 of 10
S3Kryshtal6Kiilo4n = 10Kryshtal took 6 of 10
S4Kryshtal4Kiilo2n = 6Kryshtal took 4 of 6
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home440%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricKryshtalKiiloKryshtal − KiiloBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set91+8of 10Avg pointsper match38.631.9+6.7per matchSweeps40+43–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKryshtalKiiloBasisWin rate · lifetime279 / 655 vs 110 / 40142.6%27.4%279 / 655 vs 110 / 401Avg sets wonper match1.91.4per matchAvg pointsper match36.934.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KryshtalKryshtal 1.25/Kiilo 3.75
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
86%
Kryshtal · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Kryshtal won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 11 · 16:30D. Kryshtal—1111113S. Kiilo—4510
WAug 8 · 15:30D. Kryshtal—1611123S. Kiilo—149100
WAug 3 · 13:00D. Kryshtal—1111113S. Kiilo—6630
LJul 30 · 13:30D. Kryshtal—11671292S. Kiilo—9111110113
WJul 24 · 06:30D. Kryshtal—1311113S. Kiilo—11980
WJul 16 · 16:59D. Kryshtal—81111113S. Kiilo—116261
LJul 16 · 14:30D. Kryshtal—111187102S. Kiilo—731111123
LJul 6 · 13:00D. Kryshtal—119571S. Kiilo—71111113
WJul 2 · 13:30D. Kryshtal—11119113S. Kiilo—791181
WJun 10 · 12:30D. Kryshtal—12411123S. Kiilo—10116101
D. Kryshtal10
LSep 2 · 17:33R. Horokh1.501111113D. Kryshtal2.506760WSep 2 · 16:30D. Kryshtal1.2512912113S. Kiilo3.7510111021WSep 2 · 15:30D. Kryshtal1.6111119153S. Kushnirenko2.208611131LSep 2 · 14:00D. Kryshtal1.5312119882M. Levytskii2.381071111113LSep 2 · 13:00D. Kryshtal2.25101190R. Horokh1.571213113LAug 31 · 17:43S. Balabei1.501111153D. Kryshtal2.5096130WAug 31 · 16:30D. Kryshtal2.501110127133S. Balabei1.508121011112LAug 31 · 15:30D. Kryshtal1.617111091S. Kushnirenko2.2011812113WAug 31 · 14:00D. Kryshtal1.671111113D. Yurkov2.108460LAug 31 · 13:00D. Kryshtal2.509101181R. Horokh1.5011128113
S. Kiilo10
LSep 2 · 17:05S. Kushnirenko1.368111511113S. Kiilo3.00119131382LSep 2 · 16:30D. Kryshtal1.2512912113S. Kiilo3.7510111021WSep 2 · 15:00S. Kiilo1.611111113M. Levytskii2.208780WSep 2 · 13:30S. Kiilo3.251211113S. Kushnirenko1.3310880LSep 2 · 12:00S. Kiilo5.00141111952R. Horokh1.14167711113WAug 19 · 17:03S. Kiilo3.401181113113S. Kushnirenko1.3071171562LAug 19 · 16:00S. Kiilo5.0051080R. Horokh1.141112113WAug 19 · 15:00D. Kryshtal1.2271161152S. Kiilo4.00117114113WAug 19 · 14:00V. Komar1.281110961S. Kiilo3.5031211113LAug 19 · 12:30S. Kushnirenko1.33111011113S. Kiilo3.25712951
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