TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #12472333
Played Aug 22Finished
Dmytro Tsys
Home
3.00
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
311511411––––
Serhii Bului
Away
1.36
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
2–8Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:07 and never touched — 70.5% is still 70.5%
Graded at full timeSerhii Bului to win
70.5%
70.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingDmytro Tsys above · Serhii Bului below
Set 1 · 3-11
Set 2 · 5-11
Set 3 · 4-11
Point 45 set 3, 4-11 — our read held Serhii Bului at 70.5%
45 points played in total.
H2H Dmytro Tsys 3–13 Serhii Bului Dmytro Tsys has won 3 of their 16 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:07What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.36 (69%)
Bului
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-13 in 16
Bului
Correct
gap of 10 in 16, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Tsys 1625 vs Bului 1715
Bului
Correct
both rated, 90 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Tsys 40% vs Bului 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Tsys 50% vs Bului 20%
Tsys
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Tsys +2 · Bului +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 80% — Strong (leans Bului) · live re-read · sealed at 71% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Bului form (40%) is below what odds imply (73%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsTsys 3.00 / Bului 1.36
Signal prob.20% / 80%
Edge (Bului)+11.0pp
Setka Cup · #12472333
Tsys3.00
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog43% won 29 of 68
Down 0–1, comes back24% 9 of 37
Down 0–2, comes back12% 3 of 25
Bului1.36
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As favourite84% won 47 of 56
Up 2–0, closes it97% 33 of 34
Up 1–0, closes it87% 41 of 47
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeTsys1wins
AwayBului9wins
3 of 10 to a deciderBului leads 9–1, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeTsysn = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayBului100%8 of 8
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Tsys2Bului8n = 10Bului took 8 of 10
S2Tsys4Bului6n = 10Bului took 6 of 10
S3Tsys4Bului6n = 10Bului took 6 of 10
S4Tsys1Bului4n = 5Bului took 4 of 5
S5Tsys0Bului3n = 3Bului took 3 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away440%
These 10 meetings
MetricTsysBuluiT − BBasisWins19−8in 10 meetingsFirst set28−6of 10Avg pointsper match32.439.7−7.3per matchSweeps14−33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricTsysBuluiBasisWin rate · lifetime124 / 245 vs 96 / 20050.6%48%124 / 245 vs 96 / 200Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.935.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
BuluiTsys 3.00/Bului 1.36
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
79.8%
Bului · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Bului won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LJul 31 · 15:30D. Tsys—65100S. Bului—1111123
LJul 5 · 10:28D. Tsys—641191S. Bului—11116113
LJul 5 · 05:00D. Tsys—61090S. Bului—1112113
LJul 4 · 14:30D. Tsys—4380S. Bului—1111113
LMar 15 · 11:08D. Tsys—51561142S. Bului—1113119113
LMar 15 · 10:00D. Tsys—11970S. Bului—1311113
LMar 14 · 15:30D. Tsys—691181S. Bului—11119113
WMar 7 · 09:00D. Tsys—1111113S. Bului—8990
LMar 6 · 18:21D. Tsys—91111782S. Bului—117411113
LMar 6 · 14:00D. Tsys—1113111072S. Bului—8111312113
D. Tsys10
WSep 5 · 10:31M. Pohorilyi4.05105100D. Tsys1.181211123WSep 5 · 09:30N. Priadko2.759290D. Tsys1.401111113LSep 5 · 08:00D. Tsys1.444111071S. Sideltsev2.6311512113WSep 5 · 06:30D. Tsys1.221111113M. Pohorilyi4.006660WSep 5 · 05:00D. Tsys2.0071111113O. Torianyk1.73116951WSep 4 · 17:35D. Tsys1.221211113M. Pohorilyi4.0010590WSep 4 · 16:00D. Tsys1.571111113V. Simchuk2.258470WSep 4 · 15:00I. Dubinin2.6368100D. Tsys1.441111123WSep 4 · 14:00M. Pohorilyi3.75118551D. Tsys1.2561111113LSep 4 · 12:30O. Torianyk1.73911117113D. Tsys2.0011971172
S. Bului10
WAug 22 · 10:39S. Bului1.57127117113M. Levytskii2.25101131162WAug 22 · 07:30O. Torianyk2.00611111192S. Bului1.73115813113WAug 22 · 06:00M. Levytskii2.3811113832S. Bului1.53791111113LAug 22 · 05:00P. Kolesnik3.401111123S. Bului1.3097100LAug 21 · 16:00S. Bului4.3363111272R. Horokh1.201111910113LAug 21 · 15:00S. Balabei1.17111013113S. Bului4.508121191LAug 21 · 14:00I. Shyndel1.251112123S. Bului3.75710100LAug 21 · 12:30D. Kryshtal1.2881111113S. Bului3.50113691LAug 16 · 08:30S. Kushnirenko1.3311114113S. Bului3.25741161LAug 16 · 07:30S. Bului3.00613101162V. Komar1.361111126113
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