TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #12440357
Played Aug 16Finished
Serhii Kushnirenko
Home
1.33
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
117114411116––
Serhii Bului
Away
3.25
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 17:11 and never touched — 60.4% is still 60.4%
Graded at full timeSerhii Kushnirenko to win
60.4%
60.4%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingSerhii Kushnirenko above · Serhii Bului below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 11-4
Set 3 · 4-11
Set 4 · 11-6
Point 65 set 4, 11-6 — our read held Serhii Kushnirenko at 60.4%
65 points played in total.
H2H Serhii Kushnirenko 18–6 Serhii Bului Serhii Bului has won 6 of their 24 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 17:11What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.33 (71%)
Kushnirenko
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
18-6 in 24
Kushnirenko
Correct
gap of 12 in 24, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kushnirenko 1875 vs Bului 1686
Kushnirenko
Correct
both rated, 189 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kushnirenko 40% vs Bului 20%
Kushnirenko
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kushnirenko 40% vs Bului 30%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Kushnirenko +1 · Bului -3
Bului
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 82% — Strong (leans Kushnirenko) · live re-read · sealed at 60% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Bului form (20%) is below what odds imply (31%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKushnirenko 1.33 / Bului 3.25
Signal prob.82% / 18%
Edge (Kushnirenko)+11.0pp
Setka Cup · #12440357
Kushnirenko1.33
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite80% won 56 of 70
Up 2–0, closes it89% 33 of 37
Up 1–0, closes it90% 45 of 50
Bului3.25
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog15% won 10 of 67
Down 0–1, comes back9% 5 of 57
Down 0–2, comes back2% 1 of 41
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKushnirenko9wins
AwayBului1wins
2 of 10 to a deciderKushnirenko leads 9–1, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKushnirenko100%8 of 8
AwayBuluin = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kushnirenko8Bului2n = 10Kushnirenko took 8 of 10
S2Kushnirenko7Bului3n = 10Kushnirenko took 7 of 10
S3Kushnirenko8Bului2n = 10Kushnirenko took 8 of 10
S4Kushnirenko2Bului2n = 4split evenly
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home550%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricKushnirenkoBuluiK − BBasisWins91+8in 10 meetingsFirst set82+6of 10Avg pointsper match37.228.2+9.0per matchSweeps51+43–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKushnirenkoBuluiBasisWin rate · lifetime305 / 744 vs 92 / 19041%48.4%305 / 744 vs 92 / 190Avg sets wonper match1.71.9per matchAvg pointsper match35.535.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KushnirenkoKushnirenko 1.33/Bului 3.25
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
81.9%
Kushnirenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Kushnirenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 9 · 06:00S. Kushnirenko—1111113S. Bului—9460
WAug 1 · 17:28S. Kushnirenko—101111133S. Bului—1285111
WAug 1 · 16:30S. Kushnirenko—119116113S. Bului—21121132
WJul 18 · 06:00S. Kushnirenko—1111113S. Bului—9770
LJun 28 · 07:00S. Kushnirenko—5590S. Bului—1111113
WJun 27 · 16:59S. Kushnirenko—1111113S. Bului—9980
WJun 27 · 14:30S. Kushnirenko—1113113S. Bului—51150
WJun 12 · 16:00S. Kushnirenko—1111109133S. Bului—361211112
WJun 7 · 13:00S. Kushnirenko—11511123S. Bului—7116101
WMay 31 · 09:30S. Kushnirenko—1111113S. Bului—4590
S. Kushnirenko10
WSep 2 · 17:05S. Kushnirenko1.368111511113S. Kiilo3.00119131382LSep 2 · 15:30D. Kryshtal1.6111119153S. Kushnirenko2.208611131WSep 2 · 14:30S. Kushnirenko2.751011811113R. Horokh1.4012511572LSep 2 · 13:30S. Kiilo3.251211113S. Kushnirenko1.3310880WSep 2 · 12:30S. Kushnirenko1.251110313113M. Levytskii3.75712111142WAug 31 · 17:14R. Horokh1.402101191S. Kushnirenko2.7511127113WAug 31 · 15:30D. Kryshtal1.617111091S. Kushnirenko2.2011812113LAug 31 · 14:30S. Kushnirenko2.759111091R. Horokh1.4011912113WAug 31 · 13:30S. Balabei1.3051191192S. Kushnirenko3.40116117113LAug 31 · 12:30S. Kushnirenko2.20101171192D. Yurkov1.61129119113
S. Bului10
WAug 22 · 10:39S. Bului1.57127117113M. Levytskii2.25101131162WAug 22 · 09:00D. Tsys3.003540S. Bului1.361111113WAug 22 · 07:30O. Torianyk2.00611111192S. Bului1.73115813113WAug 22 · 06:00M. Levytskii2.3811113832S. Bului1.53791111113LAug 22 · 05:00P. Kolesnik3.401111123S. Bului1.3097100LAug 21 · 16:00S. Bului4.3363111272R. Horokh1.201111910113LAug 21 · 15:00S. Balabei1.17111013113S. Bului4.508121191LAug 21 · 14:00I. Shyndel1.251112123S. Bului3.75710100LAug 21 · 12:30D. Kryshtal1.2881111113S. Bului3.50113691LAug 16 · 07:30S. Bului3.00613101162V. Komar1.361111126113
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