TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #12465813
Played Aug 21Finished
Jindrich Vrba
Home
1.25
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
8111171171113118
Andrii Tkachenko
Away
3.75
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:16 and never touched — 75.0% is still 75.0%
Graded at full timeJindrich Vrba to win
75.0%
75.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingJindrich Vrba above · Andrii Tkachenko below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 11-13
Set 5 · 11-8
Point 98 set 5, 11-8 — our read held Jindrich Vrba at 75.0%
98 points played in total.
H2H Jindrich Vrba 2–0 Andrii Tkachenko Andrii Tkachenko has won 0 of their 2 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 14:16What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.25 (75%)
Vrba
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-0 in 2
—
Too close
2 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Vrba 1214 vs Tkachenko 1064
Vrba
Correct
both rated, 150 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Vrba 40% vs Tkachenko 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Vrba 60% vs Tkachenko 30%
Vrba
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Vrba +2 · Tkachenko -3
Tkachenko
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 75% — Strong (leans Vrba)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Tkachenko form (40%) outperforms what odds imply (27%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsVrba 1.25 / Tkachenko 3.75
Signal prob.75% / 25%
Edge (Vrba)+0.0pp
Czech Liga Pro · #12465813
Vrba1.25
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite71% won 25 of 35
Up 2–0, closes it100% 16 of 16
Up 1–0, closes it88% 22 of 25
Tkachenko3.75
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog40% won 8 of 20
Down 0–1, comes back15% 2 of 13
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 9
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 2 meetings
HomeVrba2wins
AwayTkachenko0wins
1 of 2 to a deciderVrba leads 2–0, and 1 of those 2 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 2 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 2 finishedn = 2, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home1
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home1
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
These 2 meetings
MetricVrbaTkachenkoV − TBasisWins20+2in 2 meetingsFirst set110of 2Avg pointsper match44.036.5+7.5per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricVrbaTkachenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime74 / 156 vs 10 / 2847.4%35.7%74 / 156 vs 10 / 28Avg sets wonper match1.91.5per matchAvg pointsper match35.434.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
VrbaVrba 1.25/Tkachenko 3.75
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
75%
Vrba · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Vrba won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record2
WAug 21 · 16:30J. Vrba—8111111113A. Tkachenko—11771382
WAug 5 · 06:00J. Vrba—1111143A. Tkachenko—87120
J. Vrba10
WAug 21 · 17:30J. Vrba1.52119126103J. Cernik2.35411101182WAug 21 · 15:00J. Vrba1.6711115113V. Stach2.10791161WAug 21 · 14:00J. Cernik1.503970J. Vrba2.501111113LAug 10 · 17:00L. Havrda1.2891111113J. Vrba3.50116731LAug 10 · 16:00J. Hyrsl1.801111123J. Vrba1.9169100LAug 10 · 15:00J. Svec1.831411112123J. Vrba1.831211814102LAug 10 · 14:30J. Vrba3.00611741L. Havrda1.3611511113WAug 5 · 09:29J. Vrba1.61611811113V. Stach2.2011511862WAug 5 · 08:00J. Vrba1.9111119113V. Stach1.80671191WAug 5 · 07:30M. Hubka2.2078100J. Vrba1.611111123
A. Tkachenko10
LAug 28 · 09:30A. Tkachenko1.54511631L. Novotny2.1811911113WAug 28 · 08:00A. Tkachenko3.40101212113J. Cernik1.3012101091WAug 28 · 07:30L. Novotny1.911110891A. Tkachenko1.8081211113WAug 28 · 06:00A. Tkachenko2.001111123V. Kubat1.7397100LAug 27 · 09:28J. Strnad1.831114123A. Tkachenko1.83812100WAug 27 · 08:00A. Tkachenko2.501111113L. Novotny1.506650LAug 27 · 07:30V. Kubat1.831111113A. Tkachenko1.839780WAug 27 · 06:00A. Tkachenko2.10111110113J. Strnad1.67881231WAug 22 · 09:30A. Tkachenko1.6011118113P. Potmesil2.20461151WAug 22 · 08:00A. Tkachenko1.531110129113P. Serak2.38712101172
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