TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #12390989
Played Aug 10Finished
Jiri Svec
Home
1.83
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
141211111812141210
Jindrich Vrba
Away
1.83
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 17:13 and never touched — 59.4% is still 59.4%
Graded at full timeJindrich Vrba to win
59.4%
59.4%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingJiri Svec above · Jindrich Vrba below
Set 1 · 14-12
Set 2 · 1-11
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 12-14
Set 5 · 12-10
Point 105 set 5, 12-10 — our read held Jindrich Vrba at 59.4%
105 points played in total.
H2H Jiri Svec 3–4 Jindrich Vrba Jiri Svec has won 3 of their 7 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 17:13What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Vrba
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-4 in 7
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Svec 1252 vs Vrba 1200
Svec
Correct
both rated, 52 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Svec 40% vs Vrba 80%
Vrba
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Svec 40% vs Vrba 60%
Vrba
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Svec -1 · Vrba -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Vrba) · live re-read · sealed at 59% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Vrba form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSvec 1.83 / Vrba 1.83
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Vrba)+4.0pp
Czech Liga Pro · #12390989
Svec1.83
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
Vrba1.83
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 7 meetings
HomeSvec3wins
AwayVrba4wins
6 of 7 to a deciderVrba leads 4–3, and 6 of those 7 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSvec33.3%1 of 3
AwayVrba50%2 of 4
Set by set, in these 7 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Svec3Vrba4n = 7Vrba took 4 of 7
S2Svec5Vrba2n = 7Svec took 5 of 7
S3Svec4Vrba3n = 7Svec took 4 of 7
S4Svec3Vrba4n = 7Vrba took 4 of 7
S5Svec2Vrba4n = 6Vrba took 4 of 6
How those 7 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 7 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home114%
3–2Decider, home229%
2–3Decider, away457%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 7 meetings
MetricSvecVrbaS − VBasisWins34−1in 7 meetingsFirst set34−1of 7Avg pointsper match47.948.9−1.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSvecVrbaBasisWin rate · lifetime391 / 842 vs 73 / 15346.4%47.7%391 / 842 vs 73 / 153Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.835.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
VrbaSvec 1.83/Vrba 1.83
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Vrba · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Svec won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record7
WJul 10 · 08:59J. Svec—61313143J. Vrba—111111121
LJul 10 · 07:00J. Svec—138118112J. Vrba—1111911133
LJul 11 · 09:30J. Svec—89111192J. Vrba—111158113
LJul 11 · 06:00J. Svec—81151152J. Vrba—118119113
LJun 27 · 09:30J. Svec—11117992J. Vrba—891111113
WJun 27 · 08:00J. Svec—911124113J. Vrba—117101152
WMay 23 · 08:30J. Svec—1213137113J. Vrba—1011151152
J. Svec10
WSep 4 · 09:30J. Svec2.501111113Z. Drabek1.503770LSep 4 · 08:30J. Svec2.5012761182Z. Drabek1.501011115113WSep 4 · 07:00J. Svec3.50711119113P. Sudek1.2811881192WSep 4 · 06:00M. Chalupnicek1.6176111272J. Svec2.201111910113WSep 2 · 09:28L. Forman1.80812117102J. Svec1.911110711123LSep 2 · 08:00J. Svec1.9111117972J. Grohsgott1.80991111113WSep 2 · 07:30L. Forman1.91711118102J. Svec1.80116711123WSep 2 · 06:00J. Svec1.441111143D. Mutl2.6394120LSep 1 · 08:58J. Strnad1.50911118113J. Svec2.5011471162LSep 1 · 08:30J. Svec2.3812780J. Strnad1.531411113
J. Vrba10
WAug 21 · 17:30J. Vrba1.52119126103J. Cernik2.35411101182WAug 21 · 16:30J. Vrba1.258111111113A. Tkachenko3.7511771382WAug 21 · 15:00J. Vrba1.6711115113V. Stach2.10791161WAug 21 · 14:00J. Cernik1.503970J. Vrba2.501111113LAug 10 · 17:00L. Havrda1.2891111113J. Vrba3.50116731LAug 10 · 16:00J. Hyrsl1.801111123J. Vrba1.9169100LAug 10 · 14:30J. Vrba3.00611741L. Havrda1.3611511113WAug 5 · 09:29J. Vrba1.61611811113V. Stach2.2011511862WAug 5 · 08:00J. Vrba1.9111119113V. Stach1.80671191WAug 5 · 07:30M. Hubka2.2078100J. Vrba1.611111123
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