TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #12465809
Played Aug 21Finished
Jaromir Cernik
Home
1.50
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
311911711––––
Jindrich Vrba
Away
2.50
At publish
Lost last 4Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:15 and never touched — 66.5% is still 66.5%
Graded at full timeJaromir Cernik to win
66.5%
66.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingJaromir Cernik above · Jindrich Vrba below
Set 1 · 3-11
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 7-11
Point 52 set 3, 7-11 — our read held Jaromir Cernik at 66.5%
52 points played in total.
H2H Jaromir Cernik 12–6 Jindrich Vrba Jindrich Vrba has won 6 of their 18 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 14:15What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Cernik
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
12-6 in 18
Cernik
Wrong
gap of 6 in 18, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Cernik 1160 vs Vrba 1152
Cernik
Wrong
both rated, 8 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Cernik 40% vs Vrba 20%
Cernik
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Cernik 40% vs Vrba 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Cernik +1 · Vrba -4
Vrba
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 67% — Clear lean (leans Cernik)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Vrba form (20%) is below what odds imply (40%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsCernik 1.50 / Vrba 2.50
Signal prob.67% / 34%
Edge (Cernik)+4.0pp
Czech Liga Pro · #12465809
Cernik1.50
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite60% won 59 of 99
Up 2–0, closes it92% 34 of 37
Up 1–0, closes it75% 43 of 57
Vrba2.50
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 4
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog32% won 14 of 44
Down 0–1, comes back19% 6 of 31
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 19
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeCernik8wins
AwayVrba2wins
3 of 10 to a deciderCernik leads 8–2, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeCernik100%6 of 6
AwayVrba50%2 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Cernik6Vrba4n = 10Cernik took 6 of 10
S2Cernik9Vrba1n = 10Cernik took 9 of 10
S3Cernik7Vrba3n = 10Cernik took 7 of 10
S4Cernik5Vrba1n = 6Cernik took 5 of 6
S5Cernik1Vrba2n = 3Vrba took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home440%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricCernikVrbaC − VBasisWins82+6in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match39.533.6+5.9per matchSweeps40+43–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricCernikVrbaBasisWin rate · lifetime369 / 794 vs 70 / 15246.5%46.1%369 / 794 vs 70 / 152Avg sets wonper match1.91.8per matchAvg pointsper match36.735.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
CernikCernik 1.50/Vrba 2.50
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
66.5%
Cernik · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Vrba won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LJun 30 · 07:30J. Cernik—21111792J. Vrba—118911113
WJun 11 · 22:30J. Cernik—1112133J. Vrba—510110
WJun 9 · 06:00J. Cernik—1315113J. Vrba—111390
WMay 7 · 11:00J. Cernik—1111113J. Vrba—7370
WApr 16 · 06:30J. Cernik—111111113J. Vrba—991371
WMar 5 · 14:29J. Cernik—51111113J. Vrba—115571
LMar 5 · 13:00J. Cernik—71171172J. Vrba—116119113
WNov 14 · 07:30J. Cernik—591111113J. Vrba—11116772
WJun 20 · 13:03J. Cernik—1111113J. Vrba—8970
WJun 20 · 11:30J. Cernik—11119113J. Vrba—781141
J. Cernik10
LSep 4 · 03:01A. Hejduk1.631112113J. Cernik2.1341030WSep 4 · 02:00J. Strnad3.00161013972J. Cernik1.3614121111113LSep 4 · 24:30J. Cernik3.4081310J. Grohsgott1.301115113LSep 3 · 23:00J. Cernik1.915770A. Hejduk1.801111113LSep 3 · 22:00M. Vaclavik1.401111133J. Cernik2.7585110LSep 1 · 13:30Z. Kasinski1.401111113J. Cernik2.759670WSep 1 · 12:00C. Havrda2.509540J. Cernik1.501111113LSep 1 · 11:00Z. Kasinski1.801111113J. Cernik1.918860WSep 1 · 10:30J. Cernik2.001611113A. Hejduk1.7314850WSep 1 · 09:03J. Cernik1.5381111113J. Strnad2.38113891
J. Vrba10
WAug 21 · 17:30J. Vrba1.52119126103J. Cernik2.35411101182WAug 21 · 16:30J. Vrba1.258111111113A. Tkachenko3.7511771382WAug 21 · 15:00J. Vrba1.6711115113V. Stach2.10791161LAug 10 · 17:00L. Havrda1.2891111113J. Vrba3.50116731LAug 10 · 16:00J. Hyrsl1.801111123J. Vrba1.9169100LAug 10 · 15:00J. Svec1.831411112123J. Vrba1.831211814102LAug 10 · 14:30J. Vrba3.00611741L. Havrda1.3611511113WAug 5 · 09:29J. Vrba1.61611811113V. Stach2.2011511862WAug 5 · 08:00J. Vrba1.9111119113V. Stach1.80671191WAug 5 · 07:30M. Hubka2.2078100J. Vrba1.611111123
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