TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #12390922
Played Aug 10Finished
Jindrich Vrba
Home
3.00
At publish
Won last 4Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 4
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
611115711411––
Leos Havrda
Away
1.36
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 17:13 and never touched — 68.2% is still 68.2%
Graded at full timeLeos Havrda to win
68.2%
68.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingJindrich Vrba above · Leos Havrda below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 11-5
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 4-11
Point 66 set 4, 4-11 — our read held Leos Havrda at 68.2%
66 points played in total.
H2H Jindrich Vrba 0–5 Leos Havrda Jindrich Vrba has won 0 of their 5 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 17:13What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.36 (69%)
Havrda
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
0-5 in 5
Havrda
Correct
gap of 5 in 5, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Vrba 1200 vs Havrda 1142
Vrba
Wrong
both rated, 58 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Vrba 80% vs Havrda 60%
Vrba
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Vrba 70% vs Havrda 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Vrba +4 · Havrda +1
Vrba
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 72% — Strong (leans Havrda) · live re-read · sealed at 68% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Havrda form (60%) is below what odds imply (73%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsVrba 3.00 / Havrda 1.36
Signal prob.28% / 72%
Edge (Havrda)+3.0pp
Czech Liga Pro · #12390922
Vrba3.00
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 4
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog33% won 14 of 43
Down 0–1, comes back20% 6 of 30
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 19
Havrda1.36
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite63% won 41 of 65
Up 2–0, closes it93% 26 of 28
Up 1–0, closes it82% 32 of 39
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 5 meetings
HomeVrba0wins
AwayHavrda5wins
2 of 5 to a deciderHavrda leads 5–0, and 2 of those 5 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeVrba0%0 of 3
AwayHavrdan = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 5 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Vrba3Havrda2n = 5Vrba took 3 of 5
S2Vrba1Havrda4n = 5Havrda took 4 of 5
S3Vrba1Havrda4n = 5Havrda took 4 of 5
S4Vrba0Havrda3n = 3Havrda took 3 of 3
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 5 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 5 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away240%
1–3Four sets, away120%
0–3Straight, away240%
These 5 meetings
MetricVrbaHavrdaV − HBasisWins05−5in 5 meetingsFirst set32+1of 5Avg pointsper match31.242.0−10.8per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricVrbaHavrdaBasisWin rate · lifetime73 / 152 vs 219 / 50048%43.8%73 / 152 vs 219 / 500Avg sets wonper match1.91.9per matchAvg pointsper match35.336.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
HavrdaVrba 3.00/Havrda 1.36
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
71.8%
Havrda · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Havrda won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record5
LAug 24 · 07:30J. Vrba—13110372L. Havrda—1171111113
LMay 27 · 17:05J. Vrba—121011782L. Havrda—1012511113
LMay 27 · 15:00J. Vrba—11105121L. Havrda—61211143
LFeb 13 · 18:02J. Vrba—4940L. Havrda—1111113
LFeb 13 · 15:00J. Vrba—63100L. Havrda—1111123
J. Vrba10
WAug 21 · 17:30J. Vrba1.52119126103J. Cernik2.35411101182WAug 21 · 16:30J. Vrba1.258111111113A. Tkachenko3.7511771382WAug 21 · 15:00J. Vrba1.6711115113V. Stach2.10791161WAug 21 · 14:00J. Cernik1.503970J. Vrba2.501111113LAug 10 · 17:00L. Havrda1.2891111113J. Vrba3.50116731LAug 10 · 16:00J. Hyrsl1.801111123J. Vrba1.9169100LAug 10 · 15:00J. Svec1.831411112123J. Vrba1.831211814102WAug 5 · 09:29J. Vrba1.61611811113V. Stach2.2011511862WAug 5 · 08:00J. Vrba1.9111119113V. Stach1.80671191WAug 5 · 07:30M. Hubka2.2078100J. Vrba1.611111123
L. Havrda10
WSep 5 · 13:00J. Grohsgott1.959530L. Havrda1.751111113WSep 5 · 12:30L. Havrda1.831111113J. Grohsgott1.838750LSep 5 · 11:00L. Havrda1.5728100V. Stach2.251111123LSep 5 · 10:00M. Syroha1.221211113L. Havrda4.0010860WAug 30 · 03:30L. Havrda1.851111113V. Stach1.856380WAug 30 · 02:30J. Pelikan1.619140L. Havrda2.201111113WAug 30 · 01:00J. Grohsgott1.675860L. Havrda2.101111113LAug 29 · 23:30L. Havrda2.25991391D. Mutl1.57111111113WAug 29 · 22:00L. Havrda2.1071111113V. Stach1.67113581WAug 10 · 17:00L. Havrda1.2891111113J. Vrba3.50116731
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