TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13036701
Played Aug 29Finished
Leos Havrda
Home
2.10
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
711113115118––
Vojtech Stach
Away
1.67
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:20 and never touched — 58.9% is still 58.9%
Graded at full timeVojtech Stach to win
58.9%
58.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingLeos Havrda above · Vojtech Stach below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 11-3
Set 3 · 11-5
Set 4 · 11-8
Point 67 set 4, 11-8 — our read held Vojtech Stach at 58.9%
67 points played in total.
H2H Leos Havrda 2–3 Vojtech Stach Leos Havrda has won 2 of their 5 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 15:20What took a side1 for · 2 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Stach
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-3 in 5
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Havrda 1257 vs Stach 1184
Havrda
Correct
both rated, 73 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Havrda 60% vs Stach 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Havrda 70% vs Stach 50%
Havrda
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Havrda -1 · Stach +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 56% — Slight lean (leans Stach) · live re-read · sealed at 59% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Havrda form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (48%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsHavrda 2.10 / Stach 1.67
Signal prob.44% / 56%
Edge (Stach)+0.4pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13036701
Havrda2.10
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As underdog35% won 43 of 123
Down 0–1, comes back13% 7 of 56
Down 0–2, comes back6% 2 of 33
Stach1.67
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As favourite68% won 21 of 31
Up 2–0, closes it100% 11 of 11
Up 1–0, closes it88% 14 of 16
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 5 meetings
HomeHavrda2wins
AwayStach3wins
2 of 5 to a deciderStach leads 3–2, and 2 of those 5 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeHavrda33.3%1 of 3
AwayStachn = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 5 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Havrda3Stach2n = 5Havrda took 3 of 5
S2Havrda3Stach2n = 5Havrda took 3 of 5
S3Havrda3Stach2n = 5Havrda took 3 of 5
S4Havrda2Stach2n = 4split evenly
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 5 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 5 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home120%
3–1Four sets, home120%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away240%
1–3Four sets, away120%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 5 meetings
MetricHavrdaStachH − SBasisWins23−1in 5 meetingsFirst set32+1of 5Avg pointsper match39.435.6+3.8per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricHavrdaStachBasisWin rate · lifetime222 / 492 vs 68 / 13045.1%52.3%222 / 492 vs 68 / 130Avg sets wonper match1.91.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.135.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
StachHavrda 2.10/Stach 1.67
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
56.2%
Stach · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Havrda won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record5
WAug 29 · 22:00L. Havrda—71111113V. Stach—113581
LAug 22 · 03:28L. Havrda—11149722V. Stach—6121111113
LAug 22 · 24:30L. Havrda—11871182V. Stach—511113113
LAug 15 · 12:30L. Havrda—1091161V. Stach—12116113
WAug 23 · 01:00L. Havrda—1111113V. Stach—4780
L. Havrda10
WSep 5 · 13:00J. Grohsgott1.959530L. Havrda1.751111113WSep 5 · 12:30L. Havrda1.831111113J. Grohsgott1.838750LSep 5 · 11:00L. Havrda1.5728100V. Stach2.251111123LSep 5 · 10:00M. Syroha1.221211113L. Havrda4.0010860WAug 30 · 03:30L. Havrda1.851111113V. Stach1.856380WAug 30 · 02:30J. Pelikan1.619140L. Havrda2.201111113WAug 30 · 01:00J. Grohsgott1.675860L. Havrda2.101111113LAug 29 · 23:30L. Havrda2.25991391D. Mutl1.57111111113LAug 23 · 09:30L. Havrda1.22161111842J. Martinek4.00189611113WAug 23 · 08:00L. Havrda1.611111113J. Cernik2.202770
V. Stach10
WSep 5 · 17:03M. Syroha1.514670V. Stach2.401111113WSep 5 · 16:00V. Stach2.6351112123M. Syroha1.4411810101LSep 5 · 15:30J. Grohsgott1.671111133V. Stach2.1038110LSep 5 · 14:00V. Stach2.509790M. Regner1.501111113WSep 5 · 13:30M. Syroha2.2561141182V. Stach1.57118118113LSep 5 · 12:00M. Syroha1.441114126113V. Stach2.63512141112WSep 5 · 11:00L. Havrda1.5728100V. Stach2.251111123LSep 5 · 10:30V. Stach2.1011470J. Grohsgott1.671311113LAug 30 · 03:30L. Havrda1.851111113V. Stach1.856380WAug 30 · 02:00J. Grohsgott1.671411461V. Stach2.1016511113
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