TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13037083
Played Aug 29Finished
Leos Havrda
Home
2.25
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
9119111311911––
David Mutl
Away
1.57
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 16:50 and never touched — 58.9% is still 58.9%
Graded at full timeDavid Mutl to win
58.9%
58.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingLeos Havrda above · David Mutl below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 13-11
Set 4 · 9-11
Point 84 set 4, 9-11 — our read held David Mutl at 58.9%
84 points played in total.
H2H Leos Havrda 1–3 David Mutl Leos Havrda has won 1 of their 4 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 16:50What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Mutl
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-3 in 4
Mutl
Correct
gap of 2 in 4, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Havrda 1247 vs Mutl 1218
Havrda
Wrong
both rated, 29 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Havrda 80% vs Mutl 60%
Havrda
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Havrda 70% vs Mutl 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Havrda +1 · Mutl +3
Mutl
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% — Slight lean (leans Mutl)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Havrda form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (44%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsHavrda 2.25 / Mutl 1.57
Signal prob.41% / 59%
Edge (Mutl)+0.0pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13037083
Havrda2.25
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog35% won 43 of 123
Down 0–1, comes back13% 7 of 56
Down 0–2, comes back6% 2 of 33
Mutl1.57
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite70% won 23 of 33
Up 2–0, closes it73% 8 of 11
Up 1–0, closes it74% 14 of 19
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 4 meetings
HomeHavrda1wins
AwayMutl3wins
2 of 4 to a deciderMutl leads 3–1, and 2 of those 4 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeHavrdan = 1, below the 3 needed
AwayMutl66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 4 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Havrda1Mutl3n = 4Mutl took 3 of 4
S2Havrda1Mutl3n = 4Mutl took 3 of 4
S3Havrda1Mutl3n = 4Mutl took 3 of 4
S4Havrda2Mutl1n = 3Havrda took 2 of 3
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 4 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 4 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home125%
2–3Decider, away125%
1–3Four sets, away125%
0–3Straight, away125%
These 4 meetings
MetricHavrdaMutlH − MBasisWins13−2in 4 meetingsFirst set13−2of 4Avg pointsper match41.844.2−2.4per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricHavrdaMutlBasisWin rate · lifetime221 / 492 vs 52 / 10144.9%51.5%221 / 492 vs 52 / 101Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.137.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MutlHavrda 2.25/Mutl 1.57
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
58.9%
Mutl · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Mutl won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record4
WAug 21 · 23:30L. Havrda—991112113D. Mutl—111191092
LJul 1 · 02:00L. Havrda—1110611102D. Mutl—712116123
LJun 27 · 24:30L. Havrda—912971D. Mutl—111011113
LJun 13 · 02:00L. Havrda—12990D. Mutl—1411113
L. Havrda10
WSep 5 · 13:00J. Grohsgott1.959530L. Havrda1.751111113WSep 5 · 12:30L. Havrda1.831111113J. Grohsgott1.838750LSep 5 · 11:00L. Havrda1.5728100V. Stach2.251111123LSep 5 · 10:00M. Syroha1.221211113L. Havrda4.0010860WAug 30 · 03:30L. Havrda1.851111113V. Stach1.856380WAug 30 · 02:30J. Pelikan1.619140L. Havrda2.201111113WAug 30 · 01:00J. Grohsgott1.675860L. Havrda2.101111113WAug 29 · 22:00L. Havrda2.1071111113V. Stach1.67113581LAug 23 · 09:30L. Havrda1.22161111842J. Martinek4.00189611113WAug 23 · 08:00L. Havrda1.611111113J. Cernik2.202770
D. Mutl10
WSep 7 · 08:00D. Mutl1.441211113J. Srba2.6310590WSep 7 · 07:30A. Hejduk2.20117881D. Mutl1.6191111113LSep 7 · 06:00D. Mutl2.200460M. Vrabec1.611111113LSep 2 · 13:28D. Mutl2.1061180M. Regner1.671113113WSep 2 · 12:00M. Vaclavik1.809890D. Mutl1.911111113WSep 2 · 11:00M. Regner1.44811681D. Mutl2.6311311113LSep 2 · 10:30D. Mutl3.25881191J. Grohsgott1.3311116113LSep 2 · 08:59J. Grohsgott1.331311113D. Mutl3.2511780LSep 2 · 08:30D. Mutl1.3055141142L. Forman3.401111129113LSep 2 · 07:00D. Mutl2.636560J. Grohsgott1.441111113
Upcoming Matches
L. Havrda
Nothing scheduled
D. Mutl
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