TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13036457
Played Aug 30Finished
Jiri Grohsgott
Home
1.67
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
511811611––––
Leos Havrda
Away
2.10
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:29 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeLeos Havrda to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingJiri Grohsgott above · Leos Havrda below
Set 1 · 5-11
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 6-11
Point 52 set 3, 6-11 — our read held Leos Havrda at 54.0%
52 points played in total.
H2H Jiri Grohsgott 45–34 Leos Havrda Leos Havrda has won 34 of their 79 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 14:29What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Grohsgott
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
45-34 in 79
Grohsgott
Wrong
gap of 11 in 79, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Grohsgott 1128 vs Havrda 1235
Havrda
Correct
both rated, 106 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Grohsgott 40% vs Havrda 60%
Havrda
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Grohsgott 40% vs Havrda 60%
Havrda
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Grohsgott +1 · Havrda -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Grohsgott) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Havrda form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (48%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsGrohsgott 1.67 / Havrda 2.10
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Havrda)+1.8pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13036457
Grohsgott1.67
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite64% won 154 of 240
Up 2–0, closes it97% 85 of 88
Up 1–0, closes it83% 114 of 138
Havrda2.10
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog35% won 43 of 123
Down 0–1, comes back13% 7 of 56
Down 0–2, comes back6% 2 of 33
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeGrohsgott7wins
AwayHavrda3wins
2 of 10 to a deciderGrohsgott leads 7–3, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeGrohsgott66.7%4 of 6
AwayHavrda25%1 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Grohsgott6Havrda4n = 10Grohsgott took 6 of 10
S2Grohsgott6Havrda4n = 10Grohsgott took 6 of 10
S3Grohsgott6Havrda4n = 10Grohsgott took 6 of 10
S4Grohsgott5Havrda1n = 6Grohsgott took 5 of 6
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricGrohsgottHavrdaG − HBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match36.632.7+3.9per matchSweeps31+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricGrohsgottHavrdaBasisWin rate · lifetime744 / 1540 vs 221 / 49248.3%44.9%744 / 1540 vs 221 / 492Avg sets wonper match1.91.9per matchAvg pointsper match36.237.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
GrohsgottGrohsgott 1.67/Havrda 2.10
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Grohsgott · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Havrda won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LJun 24 · 15:30J. Grohsgott—116391L. Havrda—81111113
WJun 13 · 01:00J. Grohsgott—11118123L. Havrda—8811101
WJun 7 · 17:12J. Grohsgott—1111113L. Havrda—8760
WJun 7 · 14:00J. Grohsgott—1111113L. Havrda—4250
WJun 3 · 17:30J. Grohsgott—71111113L. Havrda—115871
WJun 3 · 16:30J. Grohsgott—1112113L. Havrda—71070
WMay 25 · 17:30J. Grohsgott—81111113L. Havrda—116881
WMay 25 · 14:30J. Grohsgott—7101111113L. Havrda—11126792
LMay 24 · 09:00J. Grohsgott—9750L. Havrda—1111113
LMay 24 · 06:00J. Grohsgott—115511112L. Havrda—711119133
J. Grohsgott10
LSep 5 · 17:30J. Grohsgott3.00101511642M. Regner1.341213811113LSep 5 · 16:30M. Regner1.25812118113J. Grohsgott3.75111071172WSep 5 · 15:30J. Grohsgott1.671111133V. Stach2.1038110WSep 5 · 14:30M. Syroha1.91911111092J. Grohsgott1.80113912113LSep 5 · 13:00J. Grohsgott1.959530L. Havrda1.751111113LSep 5 · 12:30L. Havrda1.831111113J. Grohsgott1.838750LSep 5 · 11:30J. Grohsgott1.809119111M. Syroha1.9111811133WSep 5 · 10:30V. Stach2.1011470J. Grohsgott1.671311113LSep 4 · 03:30J. Grohsgott2.1091111862M. Vaclavik1.65119911113WSep 4 · 01:30J. Grohsgott1.671111113A. Hejduk2.106880
L. Havrda10
WSep 5 · 13:00J. Grohsgott1.959530L. Havrda1.751111113WSep 5 · 12:30L. Havrda1.831111113J. Grohsgott1.838750LSep 5 · 11:00L. Havrda1.5728100V. Stach2.251111123LSep 5 · 10:00M. Syroha1.221211113L. Havrda4.0010860WAug 30 · 03:30L. Havrda1.851111113V. Stach1.856380WAug 30 · 02:30J. Pelikan1.619140L. Havrda2.201111113LAug 29 · 23:30L. Havrda2.25991391D. Mutl1.57111111113WAug 29 · 22:00L. Havrda2.1071111113V. Stach1.67113581LAug 23 · 09:30L. Havrda1.22161111842J. Martinek4.00189611113WAug 23 · 08:00L. Havrda1.611111113J. Cernik2.202770
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