Jindrich Vrba vs Jaromir Cernik 3-2

TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro

Czech Liga ProMatch #12471295

Played Aug 21Finished

Jindrich Vrba

Home

1.52

At publish

Won last 3

Form at publish

6–4Last 10Won last 3

Final

3 – 2

Set by set

1149111210611108

Jaromir Cernik

Away

2.35

At publish

Won last 2

Form at publish

5–5Last 10Won last 2

The read, and what happenedsealed at 17:16 and never touched — 55.0% is still 55.0%

Graded at full time

Jaromir Cernik to win

55.0%

Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.

Read

Wrong

no pick shipped

How it is goingJindrich Vrba above · Jaromir Cernik below

Set 1 · 11-4

Set 2 · 9-11

Set 3 · 12-10

Set 4 · 6-11

Set 5 · 10-8

Point 92 set 5, 10-8 — our read held Jaromir Cernik at 55.0%

92 points played in total.

H2H Jindrich Vrba 8–12 Jaromir Cernik Jindrich Vrba has won 8 of their 20 meetings.

Last 10 · 4–6Same sideHead to head

The pickNo pick published

Sealed 17:16

What took a side1 for · 3 against · 2 silent

SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way

Market

1.52 (61%)

Vrba

Correct

no bar to clear — a priced side always votes

H2H

8-12 in 20

Cernik

Wrong

gap of 4 in 20, over the gap of 2

Rating (G2)

Vrba 1214 vs Cernik 1153

Vrba

Correct

both rated, 61 points apart — no bar to clear

Form (L5)

Vrba 60% vs Cernik 60%

—

Too close

0pp gap, under the 15pp bar

Form (L10)

Vrba 60% vs Cernik 50%

—

Too close

10pp gap, under the 15pp bar

Streak

Vrba +3 · Cernik +2

Vrba

Correct

one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not

Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.

This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.

1 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.

Signal confidence: 60% — Slight lean (leans Vrba) · live re-read · sealed at 45% before the first serve

Decision Summary

Why this prediction

Cernik form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (43%)

Market vs Signals

Market oddsVrba 1.52 / Cernik 2.35

Signal prob.60% / 40%

Edge (Vrba)-1.0pp (anti-value)

Czech Liga Pro · #12471295

Vrba1.52

60%won 6 of 10 · last 10

Won last 3

oldest → newest

50%takes the first set · 5 of 10

As favourite71% won 25 of 35

Up 2–0, closes it100% 16 of 16

Up 1–0, closes it88% 22 of 25

Cernik2.35

50%won 5 of 10 · last 10

Won last 2

oldest → newest

70%takes the first set · 7 of 10

As underdog29% won 43 of 149

Down 0–1, comes back18% 16 of 89

Down 0–2, comes back11% 7 of 62

Head to head

H2H window

The recordacross 10 meetings

HomeVrba4wins

AwayCernik6wins

4 of 10 to a deciderCernik leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.

First set to match win · in this matchup

HomeVrba66.7%4 of 6

AwayCernik100%4 of 4

Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one

S1Vrba6Cernik4n = 10Vrba took 6 of 10

S2Vrba2Cernik8n = 10Cernik took 8 of 10

S3Vrba4Cernik6n = 10Cernik took 6 of 10

S4Vrba1Cernik5n = 6Cernik took 5 of 6

S5Vrba3Cernik1n = 4Vrba took 3 of 4

How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code

3–0Straight, home110%

3–1Four sets, home00%

3–2Decider, home330%

2–3Decider, away110%

1–3Four sets, away220%

0–3Straight, away330%

These 10 meetings

MetricVrbaCernikV − CBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match36.338.3−2.0per matchSweeps13−23–0 or 0–3

Career, not this matchup

MetricVrbaCernikBasisWin rate · lifetime74 / 156 vs 371 / 79847.4%46.5%74 / 156 vs 371 / 798Avg sets wonper match1.91.9per matchAvg pointsper match35.436.7per match

Deep Dive by Market

Each market builds on the overview above

Forecast

History

Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction

Match Winner

Vrba

Vrba 1.52/Cernik 2.35

Read onlywould have hit

What we said

59.7%

Vrba · sealed before the serve

What happened

3–2

Vrba won

Recent Results

H2H · no odds on record10

WAug 21 · 17:30J. Vrba—119126103J. Cernik—411101182

WAug 21 · 14:00J. Vrba—1111113J. Cernik—3970

WJun 30 · 07:30J. Vrba—118911113J. Cernik—21111792

LJun 11 · 22:30J. Vrba—510110J. Cernik—1112133

LJun 9 · 06:00J. Vrba—111390J. Cernik—1315113

LMay 7 · 11:00J. Vrba—7370J. Cernik—1111113

LApr 16 · 06:30J. Vrba—991371J. Cernik—111111113

LMar 5 · 14:29J. Vrba—115571J. Cernik—51111113

WMar 5 · 13:00J. Vrba—116119113J. Cernik—71171172

LNov 14 · 07:30J. Vrba—11116772J. Cernik—591111113

J. Vrba10

WAug 21 · 16:30J. Vrba1.258111111113A. Tkachenko3.7511771382 WAug 21 · 15:00J. Vrba1.6711115113V. Stach2.10791161 WAug 21 · 14:00J. Cernik1.503970J. Vrba2.501111113 LAug 10 · 17:00L. Havrda1.2891111113J. Vrba3.50116731 LAug 10 · 16:00J. Hyrsl1.801111123J. Vrba1.9169100 LAug 10 · 15:00J. Svec1.831411112123J. Vrba1.831211814102 LAug 10 · 14:30J. Vrba3.00611741L. Havrda1.3611511113 WAug 5 · 09:29J. Vrba1.61611811113V. Stach2.2011511862 WAug 5 · 08:00J. Vrba1.9111119113V. Stach1.80671191 WAug 5 · 07:30M. Hubka2.2078100J. Vrba1.611111123

J. Cernik10

LSep 4 · 03:01A. Hejduk1.631112113J. Cernik2.1341030 WSep 4 · 02:00J. Strnad3.00161013972J. Cernik1.3614121111113 LSep 4 · 24:30J. Cernik3.4081310J. Grohsgott1.301115113 LSep 3 · 23:00J. Cernik1.915770A. Hejduk1.801111113 LSep 3 · 22:00M. Vaclavik1.401111133J. Cernik2.7585110 LSep 1 · 13:30Z. Kasinski1.401111113J. Cernik2.759670 WSep 1 · 12:00C. Havrda2.509540J. Cernik1.501111113 LSep 1 · 11:00Z. Kasinski1.801111113J. Cernik1.918860 WSep 1 · 10:30J. Cernik2.001611113A. Hejduk1.7314850 LAug 21 · 14:00J. Cernik1.503970J. Vrba2.501111113

Event Chatroom

This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.