TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #12434400
Played Aug 16Finished
Miroslav Novotny
Home
2.10
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
115811911911––
Karel Bartak
Away
1.67
At publish
Lost last 4Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:11 and never touched — 57.8% is still 57.8%
Graded at full timeKarel Bartak to win
57.8%
57.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMiroslav Novotny above · Karel Bartak below
Set 1 · 11-5
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 9-11
Point 75 set 4, 9-11 — our read held Karel Bartak at 57.8%
75 points played in total.
H2H Miroslav Novotny 9–8 Karel Bartak Karel Bartak has won 8 of their 17 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 14:11What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Bartak
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
9-8 in 17
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Novotny 1307 vs Bartak 1340
Bartak
Correct
both rated, 32 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Novotny 40% vs Bartak 20%
Novotny
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Novotny 40% vs Bartak 30%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Novotny -2 · Bartak -4
Bartak
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 58% — Slight lean (leans Bartak)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Bartak form (20%) is below what odds imply (60%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsNovotny 2.10 / Bartak 1.67
Signal prob.42% / 58%
Edge (Bartak)+2.0pp
Czech Liga Pro · #12434400
Novotny2.10
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog43% won 13 of 30
Down 0–1, comes back13% 2 of 15
Down 0–2, comes back9% 1 of 11
Bartak1.67
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 4
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite47% won 9 of 19
Up 2–0, closes it100% 6 of 6
Up 1–0, closes it78% 7 of 9
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeNovotny6wins
AwayBartak4wins
4 of 10 to a deciderNovotny leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeNovotny66.7%2 of 3
AwayBartak42.9%3 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Novotny3Bartak7n = 10Bartak took 7 of 10
S2Novotny4Bartak6n = 10Bartak took 6 of 10
S3Novotny7Bartak3n = 10Novotny took 7 of 10
S4Novotny3Bartak3n = 6split evenly
S5Novotny3Bartak1n = 4Novotny took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricNovotnyBartakN − BBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match36.633.6+3.0per matchSweeps13−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricNovotnyBartakBasisWin rate · lifetime156 / 330 vs 95 / 17747.3%53.7%156 / 330 vs 95 / 177Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.635.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
BartakNovotny 2.10/Bartak 1.67
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
57.8%
Bartak · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Bartak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LJul 28 · 24:30M. Novotny—5670K. Bartak—1111113
WJan 5 · 23:30M. Novotny—811117113K. Bartak—11331152
LNov 9 · 24:30M. Novotny—11511252K. Bartak—911511113
WOct 25 · 22:00M. Novotny—11811113K. Bartak—311741
WOct 12 · 03:06M. Novotny—1012118113K. Bartak—121021172
WOct 12 · 01:30M. Novotny—991111113K. Bartak—11117542
LSep 12 · 21:30M. Novotny—7850K. Bartak—1111113
WSep 12 · 19:30M. Novotny—101111113K. Bartak—129641
LSep 12 · 15:00M. Novotny—91160K. Bartak—1113113
WSep 6 · 03:00M. Novotny—1111113K. Bartak—9730
M. Novotny10
LSep 6 · 03:30M. Ulrych1.36111111113M. Novotny3.00613161WSep 6 · 02:00M. Novotny1.3311119123J. Strnad3.259811101WSep 6 · 01:00M. Novotny1.7361111113P. Berdych2.00112821WSep 6 · 24:00V. Kosar2.00981191M. Novotny1.7311114113LSep 5 · 22:30M. Ulrych1.831111113M. Novotny1.839580LAug 28 · 21:00D. Priesol1.2531111113M. Novotny3.75117861LAug 28 · 20:30J. Framberk1.805131111113M. Novotny1.91111113552LAug 28 · 19:30M. Novotny1.4412511101M. Barta2.63101113123LAug 28 · 18:30D. Priesol1.401111113M. Novotny2.756650WAug 28 · 17:30M. Novotny2.50111011113J. Framberk1.50412451
K. Bartak10
LAug 16 · 24:30K. Bartak2.252990M. Necas1.571111113LAug 15 · 23:00K. Bartak1.7313612372V. Dolezal2.001111101193LAug 15 · 22:00R. Urban1.501111113K. Bartak2.503860LJul 28 · 03:28J. Didi1.6711911113K. Bartak2.10711831WJul 28 · 01:30K. Bartak1.571111113V. Kosar2.256750WJul 28 · 24:30M. Novotny1.675670K. Bartak2.101111113LJul 27 · 23:30J. Didi2.001111113K. Bartak1.739650WJul 27 · 22:30K. Bartak1.731111113P. Stuchlik2.002950LJul 27 · 17:00M. Syroha1.401111711143K. Bartak2.75134118122LJul 27 · 16:00M. Barta2.101111113K. Bartak1.678590
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.