TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #12432924
Played Aug 15Finished
Karel Bartak
Home
1.73
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
1311611121031179
Vaclav Dolezal
Away
2.00
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
9–1Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:21 and never touched — 56.4% is still 56.4%
Graded at full timeKarel Bartak to win
56.4%
56.4%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingKarel Bartak above · Vaclav Dolezal below
Set 1 · 13-11
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 12-10
Set 4 · 3-11
Set 5 · 7-9
Point 93 set 5, 7-9 — our read held Karel Bartak at 56.4%
93 points played in total.
H2H Karel Bartak 6–2 Vaclav Dolezal Vaclav Dolezal has won 2 of their 8 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 10:21What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Bartak
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
6-2 in 8
Bartak
Wrong
gap of 4 in 8, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Bartak 1359 vs Dolezal 1476
Dolezal
Correct
both rated, 117 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Bartak 40% vs Dolezal 80%
Dolezal
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Bartak 40% vs Dolezal 90%
Dolezal
Correct
50pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Bartak -2 · Dolezal +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 58% — Slight lean (leans Bartak) · live re-read · sealed at 56% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Dolezal form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (50%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBartak 1.73 / Dolezal 2.00
Signal prob.58% / 42%
Edge (Bartak)+4.0pp
Czech Liga Pro · #12432924
Bartak1.73
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite47% won 9 of 19
Up 2–0, closes it100% 6 of 6
Up 1–0, closes it78% 7 of 9
Dolezal2.00
90%won 9 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As underdog35% won 45 of 130
Down 0–1, comes back22% 17 of 77
Down 0–2, comes back14% 7 of 51
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 8 meetings
HomeBartak6wins
AwayDolezal2wins
1 of 8 to a deciderBartak leads 6–2, and 1 of those 8 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeBartak85.7%6 of 7
AwayDolezaln = 1, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 8 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Bartak7Dolezal1n = 8Bartak took 7 of 8
S2Bartak3Dolezal5n = 8Dolezal took 5 of 8
S3Bartak6Dolezal2n = 8Bartak took 6 of 8
S4Bartak4Dolezal1n = 5Bartak took 4 of 5
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 8 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 8 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home225%
3–1Four sets, home450%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away113%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away113%
These 8 meetings
MetricBartakDolezalB − DBasisWins62+4in 8 meetingsFirst set71+6of 8Avg pointsper match38.034.9+3.1per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBartakDolezalBasisWin rate · lifetime95 / 175 vs 353 / 71554.3%49.4%95 / 175 vs 353 / 715Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match35.338.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
BartakBartak 1.73/Dolezal 2.00
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
57.7%
Bartak · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Dolezal won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record8
LNov 9 · 02:00K. Bartak—11511452V. Dolezal—611911113
WNov 1 · 04:00K. Bartak—11911173V. Dolezal—5116151
WOct 31 · 23:00K. Bartak—131116113V. Dolezal—1171891
LOct 26 · 02:30K. Bartak—2780V. Dolezal—1111113
WJun 27 · 01:00K. Bartak—1111113V. Dolezal—8880
WJun 25 · 20:30K. Bartak—111111113V. Dolezal—613771
WMar 1 · 01:30K. Bartak—11511133V. Dolezal—8119111
WJan 27 · 23:30K. Bartak—1111133V. Dolezal—45110
K. Bartak10
WAug 16 · 02:00M. Novotny2.10118991K. Bartak1.6751111113LAug 16 · 24:30K. Bartak2.252990M. Necas1.571111113LAug 15 · 22:00R. Urban1.501111113K. Bartak2.503860LJul 28 · 03:28J. Didi1.6711911113K. Bartak2.10711831WJul 28 · 01:30K. Bartak1.571111113V. Kosar2.256750WJul 28 · 24:30M. Novotny1.675670K. Bartak2.101111113LJul 27 · 23:30J. Didi2.001111113K. Bartak1.739650WJul 27 · 22:30K. Bartak1.731111113P. Stuchlik2.002950LJul 27 · 17:00M. Syroha1.401111711143K. Bartak2.75134118122LJul 27 · 16:00M. Barta2.101111113K. Bartak1.678590
V. Dolezal10
LSep 5 · 02:58A. Svoboda1.61711511113V. Dolezal2.2011611862LSep 5 · 02:30V. Dolezal1.731291171O. Kucirek2.0014113113WSep 5 · 01:30M. Stefek2.00115681V. Dolezal1.7391111113LSep 5 · 24:00V. Dolezal2.00911861A. Svoboda1.7311611113LSep 4 · 23:00R. Urban1.83912118113V. Dolezal1.83111061172WSep 4 · 20:59J. Didi2.109850V. Dolezal1.671111113LSep 4 · 20:30M. Stefek2.201191011123V. Dolezal1.61911129102LSep 4 · 19:30V. Dolezal1.5371114882J. Didi2.381141211113LSep 4 · 18:30A. Svoboda1.839111413123V. Dolezal1.831151611102WSep 3 · 03:04V. Dolezal1.2011139113J. Didi4.335111151
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