TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #12382720
Played Aug 8Finished
Bartolomej Jonas
Home
1.83
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
1513811911114119
Ivan Jemelka
Away
1.83
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:26 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeIvan Jemelka to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingBartolomej Jonas above · Ivan Jemelka below
Set 1 · 15-13
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 11-4
Set 5 · 11-9
Point 102 set 5, 11-9 — our read held Ivan Jemelka at 54.0%
102 points played in total.
H2H Bartolomej Jonas 1–1 Ivan Jemelka Dead even across their 2 meetings.
Last 2 · 1–1Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 13:26What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Jemelka
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-1 in 2
—
Too close
2 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Jonas 1326 vs Jemelka 1305
Jonas
Correct
both rated, 21 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Jonas 60% vs Jemelka 40%
Jonas
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Jonas 30% vs Jemelka 30%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Jonas +2 · Jemelka -3
Jemelka
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Jonas) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Jemelka form (40%) is below what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsJonas 1.83 / Jemelka 1.83
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Jonas)+4.0pp
TT Cup · #12382720
Jonas1.83
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
Jemelka1.83
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 2 meetings
HomeJonas1wins
AwayJemelka1wins
2 of 2 to a deciderLevel at 1–1, and 2 of those 2 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 2 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 2 finishedn = 2, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home1
2–3Decider, away1
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
These 2 meetings
MetricJonasJemelkaJonas − JemelkaBasisWins110in 2 meetingsFirst set20+2of 2Avg pointsper match53.550.5+3.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricJonasJemelkaBasisWin rate · lifetime32 / 76 vs 25 / 6442.1%39.1%32 / 76 vs 25 / 64Avg sets wonper match1.91.7per matchAvg pointsper match39.935.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
JonasJonas 1.83/Jemelka 1.83
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Jonas · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Jonas won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record2
WAug 8 · 18:40B. Jonas—158911113I. Jemelka—131111492
LJul 10 · 13:40B. Jonas—111391282I. Jemelka—6151110113
B. Jonas10
WAug 30 · 20:44B. Jonas1.8081111113R. Jancak1.91119681WAug 30 · 19:40B. Jonas1.83111111143R. Jancak1.836137121LAug 30 · 18:40B. Jonas1.73111011782M. Dolezal2.00812611113LAug 30 · 17:40B. Jonas1.67711121192J. Oleksik2.10115146113WAug 29 · 17:15F. Mandrysz1.7711951292B. Jonas1.877111110113LAug 29 · 15:40P. Chlad1.6113613113B. Jonas2.2011111191WAug 29 · 15:10F. Mandrysz2.10881171B. Jonas1.6711113113WAug 29 · 14:10B. Jonas1.91111111113R. Jancak1.80135981LAug 8 · 21:15B. Jonas1.8381112982R. Jancak1.831171011113LAug 8 · 19:40B. Jonas1.73811751R. Jancak2.0011911113
I. Jemelka10
WSep 5 · 21:10J. Vanous1.73721113112I. Jemelka1.911111911133WSep 5 · 19:40I. Jemelka2.001112113D. Stefek1.7391090LSep 5 · 18:40I. Jemelka2.38811961J. Vanous1.5311711113WSep 5 · 17:40I. Jemelka2.101812113R. Benesz1.67161070LSep 3 · 20:44I. Jemelka1.8391191192O. Vaclahovsky1.83115116113LSep 3 · 19:40T. Ogrocki1.8031611113I. Jemelka1.911114561LSep 3 · 19:10P. Chvojka2.001110118113I. Jemelka1.7321231152WSep 3 · 18:10I. Jemelka2.101011712113O. Vaclahovsky1.67126111052WAug 26 · 09:13J. Sevecek1.50612451I. Jemelka2.50111011113LAug 26 · 07:40J. Sevecek1.801111113I. Jemelka1.918920
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