TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #12382769
Played Aug 8Finished
Bartolomej Jonas
Home
1.73
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 3
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
811119711511––
Richard Jancak
Away
2.00
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:37 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeBartolomej Jonas to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingBartolomej Jonas above · Richard Jancak below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 5-11
Point 73 set 4, 5-11 — our read held Bartolomej Jonas at 54.0%
73 points played in total.
H2H Bartolomej Jonas 2–1 Richard Jancak Richard Jancak has won 1 of their 3 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 13:37What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Jonas
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-1 in 3
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Jonas 1326 vs Jancak 1394
Jancak
Correct
both rated, 68 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Jonas 60% vs Jancak 20%
Jonas
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Jonas 40% vs Jancak 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Jonas +3 · Jancak -1
Jonas
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Jonas)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Jancak form (20%) is below what odds imply (50%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsJonas 1.73 / Jancak 2.00
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Jonas)+0.3pp
TT Cup · #12382769
Jonas1.73
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite31% won 4 of 13
Jancak2.00
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog45% won 30 of 67
Down 0–1, comes back33% 12 of 36
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 17
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 3 meetings
HomeJonas2wins
AwayJancak1wins
2 of 3 to a deciderJonas leads 2–1, and 2 of those 3 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 3 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Jonas1Jancak2n = 3Jancak took 2 of 3
S2Jonas2Jancak1n = 3Jonas took 2 of 3
S3Jonas1Jancak2n = 3Jancak took 2 of 3
S4Jonas1Jancak2n = 3Jancak took 2 of 3
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 3 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 3 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home267%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away133%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 3 meetings
MetricJonasJancakJonas − JancakBasisWins21+1in 3 meetingsFirst set12−1of 3Avg pointsper match42.743.3−0.6per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricJonasJancakBasisWin rate · lifetime32 / 76 vs 109 / 21442.1%50.9%32 / 76 vs 109 / 214Avg sets wonper match1.92.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.940.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
JonasJonas 1.73/Jancak 2.00
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Jonas · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Jancak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record3
LAug 8 · 19:40B. Jonas—811751R. Jancak—11911113
WMar 22 · 09:55B. Jonas—914511113R. Jancak—111211932
WMar 22 · 09:15B. Jonas—117117113R. Jancak—41181182
B. Jonas10
WAug 30 · 20:44B. Jonas1.8081111113R. Jancak1.91119681WAug 30 · 19:40B. Jonas1.83111111143R. Jancak1.836137121LAug 30 · 18:40B. Jonas1.73111011782M. Dolezal2.00812611113LAug 30 · 17:40B. Jonas1.67711121192J. Oleksik2.10115146113WAug 29 · 17:15F. Mandrysz1.7711951292B. Jonas1.877111110113LAug 29 · 15:40P. Chlad1.6113613113B. Jonas2.2011111191WAug 29 · 15:10F. Mandrysz2.10881171B. Jonas1.6711113113WAug 29 · 14:10B. Jonas1.91111111113R. Jancak1.80135981LAug 8 · 21:15B. Jonas1.8381112982R. Jancak1.831171011113WAug 8 · 18:40B. Jonas1.83158911113I. Jemelka1.83131111492
R. Jancak10
LSep 6 · 20:49R. Jancak1.53611991L. Jr2.3811611113WSep 6 · 19:45L. Jr2.2511931182R. Jancak1.57811119113LSep 6 · 19:15J. Oleksik2.00111169113R. Jancak1.7356111152LSep 6 · 18:15R. Jancak1.8364111192M. Dolezal1.83111197113LSep 6 · 16:50F. Mandrysz1.5111119123R. Jancak2.378311101LSep 6 · 16:15R. Jancak2.20311651F. Mandrysz1.6111911113LAug 30 · 20:44B. Jonas1.8081111113R. Jancak1.91119681LAug 30 · 19:40B. Jonas1.83111111143R. Jancak1.836137121LAug 29 · 14:10B. Jonas1.91111111113R. Jancak1.80135981WAug 8 · 21:15B. Jonas1.8381112982R. Jancak1.831171011113
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