TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13041078
Played Aug 29Finished
Bartolomej Jonas
Home
1.91
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1113115119118––
Richard Jancak
Away
1.80
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:44 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeRichard Jancak to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingBartolomej Jonas above · Richard Jancak below
Set 1 · 11-13
Set 2 · 11-5
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 11-8
Point 79 set 4, 11-8 — our read held Richard Jancak at 54.0%
79 points played in total.
H2H Bartolomej Jonas 2–2 Richard Jancak Dead even across their 4 meetings.
Last 4 · 2–2Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 10:44What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Jancak
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-2 in 4
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Jonas 1308 vs Jancak 1430
Jancak
Wrong
both rated, 122 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Jonas 60% vs Jancak 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Jonas 40% vs Jancak 60%
Jancak
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Jonas -2 · Jancak -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Jancak)
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsJonas 1.91 / Jancak 1.80
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Jancak)+2.5pp
TT Cup · #13041078
Jonas1.91
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog37% won 10 of 27
Down 0–1, comes back33% 6 of 18
Down 0–2, comes back17% 1 of 6
Jancak1.80
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite57% won 60 of 106
Up 2–0, closes it100% 20 of 20
Up 1–0, closes it66% 35 of 53
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 4 meetings
HomeJonas2wins
AwayJancak2wins
3 of 4 to a deciderLevel at 2–2, and 3 of those 4 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeJonasn = 1, below the 3 needed
AwayJancak66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 4 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Jonas1Jancak3n = 4Jancak took 3 of 4
S2Jonas3Jancak1n = 4Jonas took 3 of 4
S3Jonas2Jancak2n = 4split evenly
S4Jonas1Jancak3n = 4Jancak took 3 of 4
S5Jonas2Jancak1n = 3Jonas took 2 of 3
How those 4 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 4 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home250%
2–3Decider, away125%
1–3Four sets, away125%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 4 meetings
MetricJonasJancakJonas − JancakBasisWins220in 4 meetingsFirst set13−2of 4Avg pointsper match44.045.0−1.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricJonasJancakBasisWin rate · lifetime32 / 77 vs 126 / 24741.6%51%32 / 77 vs 126 / 247Avg sets wonper match1.92.1per matchAvg pointsper match40.039.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
JancakJonas 1.91/Jancak 1.80
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Jancak · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Jonas won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record4
LAug 8 · 21:15B. Jonas—81112982R. Jancak—1171011113
LAug 8 · 19:40B. Jonas—811751R. Jancak—11911113
WMar 22 · 09:55B. Jonas—914511113R. Jancak—111211932
WMar 22 · 09:15B. Jonas—117117113R. Jancak—41181182
B. Jonas10
WAug 30 · 20:44B. Jonas1.8081111113R. Jancak1.91119681WAug 30 · 19:40B. Jonas1.83111111143R. Jancak1.836137121LAug 30 · 18:40B. Jonas1.73111011782M. Dolezal2.00812611113LAug 30 · 17:40B. Jonas1.67711121192J. Oleksik2.10115146113WAug 29 · 17:15F. Mandrysz1.7711951292B. Jonas1.877111110113LAug 29 · 15:40P. Chlad1.6113613113B. Jonas2.2011111191WAug 29 · 15:10F. Mandrysz2.10881171B. Jonas1.6711113113LAug 8 · 21:15B. Jonas1.8381112982R. Jancak1.831171011113LAug 8 · 19:40B. Jonas1.73811751R. Jancak2.0011911113WAug 8 · 18:40B. Jonas1.83158911113I. Jemelka1.83131111492
R. Jancak10
LSep 6 · 20:49R. Jancak1.53611991L. Jr2.3811611113WSep 6 · 19:45L. Jr2.2511931182R. Jancak1.57811119113LSep 6 · 19:15J. Oleksik2.00111169113R. Jancak1.7356111152LSep 6 · 18:15R. Jancak1.8364111192M. Dolezal1.83111197113LSep 6 · 16:50F. Mandrysz1.5111119123R. Jancak2.378311101LSep 6 · 16:15R. Jancak2.20311651F. Mandrysz1.6111911113LAug 30 · 20:44B. Jonas1.8081111113R. Jancak1.91119681LAug 30 · 19:40B. Jonas1.83111111143R. Jancak1.836137121WAug 8 · 21:15B. Jonas1.8381112982R. Jancak1.831171011113WAug 8 · 19:40B. Jonas1.73811751R. Jancak2.0011911113
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