TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #12384736
Played Aug 8Finished
Bartolomej Jonas
Home
1.83
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
8111171210911811
Richard Jancak
Away
1.83
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:10 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeRichard Jancak to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingBartolomej Jonas above · Richard Jancak below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 12-10
Set 4 · 9-11
Set 5 · 8-11
Point 98 set 5, 8-11 — our read held Richard Jancak at 54.0%
98 points played in total.
H2H Bartolomej Jonas 2–2 Richard Jancak Dead even across their 4 meetings.
Last 4 · 2–2Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 21:10What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Jancak
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-2 in 4
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Jonas 1308 vs Jancak 1412
Jancak
Correct
both rated, 104 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Jonas 60% vs Jancak 40%
Jonas
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Jonas 40% vs Jancak 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Jonas -1 · Jancak +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Jancak)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Jancak form (40%) is below what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsJonas 1.83 / Jancak 1.83
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Jancak)+4.0pp
TT Cup · #12384736
Jonas1.83
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
Jancak1.83
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 4 meetings
HomeJonas2wins
AwayJancak2wins
3 of 4 to a deciderLevel at 2–2, and 3 of those 4 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeJonasn = 1, below the 3 needed
AwayJancak66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 4 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Jonas1Jancak3n = 4Jancak took 3 of 4
S2Jonas3Jancak1n = 4Jonas took 3 of 4
S3Jonas2Jancak2n = 4split evenly
S4Jonas1Jancak3n = 4Jancak took 3 of 4
S5Jonas2Jancak1n = 3Jonas took 2 of 3
How those 4 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 4 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home250%
2–3Decider, away125%
1–3Four sets, away125%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 4 meetings
MetricJonasJancakJonas − JancakBasisWins220in 4 meetingsFirst set13−2of 4Avg pointsper match44.045.0−1.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricJonasJancakBasisWin rate · lifetime32 / 77 vs 110 / 21541.6%51.2%32 / 77 vs 110 / 215Avg sets wonper match1.92.1per matchAvg pointsper match40.040.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
JancakJonas 1.83/Jancak 1.83
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Jancak · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Jancak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record4
LAug 8 · 21:15B. Jonas—81112982R. Jancak—1171011113
LAug 8 · 19:40B. Jonas—811751R. Jancak—11911113
WMar 22 · 09:55B. Jonas—914511113R. Jancak—111211932
WMar 22 · 09:15B. Jonas—117117113R. Jancak—41181182
B. Jonas10
WAug 30 · 20:44B. Jonas1.8081111113R. Jancak1.91119681WAug 30 · 19:40B. Jonas1.83111111143R. Jancak1.836137121LAug 30 · 18:40B. Jonas1.73111011782M. Dolezal2.00812611113LAug 30 · 17:40B. Jonas1.67711121192J. Oleksik2.10115146113WAug 29 · 17:15F. Mandrysz1.7711951292B. Jonas1.877111110113LAug 29 · 15:40P. Chlad1.6113613113B. Jonas2.2011111191WAug 29 · 15:10F. Mandrysz2.10881171B. Jonas1.6711113113WAug 29 · 14:10B. Jonas1.91111111113R. Jancak1.80135981LAug 8 · 19:40B. Jonas1.73811751R. Jancak2.0011911113WAug 8 · 18:40B. Jonas1.83158911113I. Jemelka1.83131111492
R. Jancak10
LSep 6 · 20:49R. Jancak1.53611991L. Jr2.3811611113WSep 6 · 19:45L. Jr2.2511931182R. Jancak1.57811119113LSep 6 · 19:15J. Oleksik2.00111169113R. Jancak1.7356111152LSep 6 · 18:15R. Jancak1.8364111192M. Dolezal1.83111197113LSep 6 · 16:50F. Mandrysz1.5111119123R. Jancak2.378311101LSep 6 · 16:15R. Jancak2.20311651F. Mandrysz1.6111911113LAug 30 · 20:44B. Jonas1.8081111113R. Jancak1.91119681LAug 30 · 19:40B. Jonas1.83111111143R. Jancak1.836137121LAug 29 · 14:10B. Jonas1.91111111113R. Jancak1.80135981WAug 8 · 19:40B. Jonas1.73811751R. Jancak2.0011911113
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