TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #12342616
Played Aug 1Finished
Jan Lovl
Home
1.62
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
911111911––––
Martin Jirasek
Away
2.20
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:44 and never touched — 57.7% is still 57.7%
Graded at full timeJan Lovl to win
57.7%
57.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingJan Lovl above · Martin Jirasek below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 1-11
Set 3 · 9-11
Point 52 set 3, 9-11 — our read held Jan Lovl at 57.7%
52 points played in total.
H2H Jan Lovl 9–3 Martin Jirasek Martin Jirasek has won 3 of their 12 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 21:44What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Lovl
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
9-3 in 12
Lovl
Wrong
gap of 6 in 12, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Lovl 1563 vs Jirasek 1548
Lovl
Wrong
both rated, 15 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Lovl 60% vs Jirasek 80%
Jirasek
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Lovl 50% vs Jirasek 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Lovl +1 · Jirasek +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 62% — Slight lean (leans Lovl) · live re-read · sealed at 58% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Jirasek form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (45%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsLovl 1.61 / Jirasek 2.20
Signal prob.62% / 38%
Edge (Lovl)+4.0pp
TT Cup · #12342616
Lovl1.61
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite59% won 42 of 71
Up 2–0, closes it96% 25 of 26
Up 1–0, closes it79% 33 of 42
Jirasek2.20
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog40% won 36 of 90
Down 0–1, comes back17% 8 of 46
Down 0–2, comes back3% 1 of 32
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeLovl7wins
AwayJirasek3wins
3 of 10 to a deciderLovl leads 7–3, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeLovl100%5 of 5
AwayJirasek60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Lovl5Jirasek5n = 10split evenly
S2Lovl8Jirasek2n = 10Lovl took 8 of 10
S3Lovl8Jirasek2n = 10Lovl took 8 of 10
S4Lovl1Jirasek3n = 4Jirasek took 3 of 4
S5Lovl2Jirasek1n = 3Lovl took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home550%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricLovlJirasekL − JBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match38.631.1+7.5per matchSweeps51+43–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricLovlJirasekBasisWin rate · lifetime131 / 252 vs 143 / 28552%50.2%131 / 252 vs 143 / 285Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.237.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
LovlLovl 1.61/Jirasek 2.20
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
61.7%
Lovl · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Jirasek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WMay 3 · 11:35J. Lovl—9111110113M. Jirasek—11671212
LApr 21 · 13:25J. Lovl—9960M. Jirasek—1111113
LApr 21 · 10:05J. Lovl—12111114122M. Jirasek—1413812143
WApr 9 · 11:35J. Lovl—1111123M. Jirasek—73100
WApr 2 · 15:35J. Lovl—1111113M. Jirasek—5790
WJan 4 · 14:05J. Lovl—1211113M. Jirasek—10860
WJan 4 · 12:35J. Lovl—1111113M. Jirasek—8420
WJan 1 · 17:05J. Lovl—611119113M. Jirasek—11581142
WDec 31 · 22:35J. Lovl—1111113M. Jirasek—8680
LDec 31 · 21:05J. Lovl—5118111M. Jirasek—11511133
J. Lovl10
WSep 9 · 13:15J. Lovl1.44891111113M. Chmelicek2.6311117962LSep 9 · 12:05R. Neterda2.101111113J. Lovl1.676320WSep 9 · 11:35M. Chmelicek2.2061111101J. Lovl1.6111913123LSep 9 · 10:35J. Lovl1.57114771R. Vavricka2.2581111113LSep 8 · 13:34R. Fitl1.80114911113J. Lovl1.9161111672LSep 8 · 12:05R. Fitl1.8311711113J. Lovl1.83211871WSep 8 · 11:35O. Pros2.7534121162J. Lovl1.401111107113WSep 8 · 10:35J. Lovl1.57111115113R. Vavricka2.25761751LSep 6 · 09:35J. Ruzicka1.83591211113J. Lovl1.83111110472WSep 6 · 08:35J. Lovl1.441111113J. Martin2.639550
M. Jirasek10
LAug 1 · 13:40M. Jirasek—11711792J. Lovl—511411113LAug 1 · 12:35R. Fitl1.8311118113M. Jirasek1.83991151WAug 1 · 11:35M. Jirasek2.6311811113D. Hons1.44711851WJul 31 · 17:35M. Jirasek1.9111714113M. Holub1.785111241LJul 31 · 16:35M. Jirasek1.919880R. Fitl1.801111113WJul 31 · 15:05M. Holub1.5094111162M. Jirasek2.50111179113WJul 31 · 14:35P. Chvatal1.309118101M. Jirasek3.4011611123WJul 28 · 21:35M. Jirasek2.2812119123R. Vosyka1.5110811101WJul 28 · 20:35M. Flesar1.809980M. Jirasek1.911111113WJul 28 · 19:35M. Jirasek1.731113163M. Sokol2.00611140
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