TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #12342605
Played Aug 1Finished
Martin Jirasek
Home
2.63
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
117811118115––
David Hons
Away
1.44
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:43 and never touched — 66.5% is still 66.5%
Graded at full timeDavid Hons to win
66.5%
66.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingMartin Jirasek above · David Hons below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 11-5
Point 72 set 4, 11-5 — our read held David Hons at 66.5%
72 points played in total.
H2H Martin Jirasek 9–14 David Hons Martin Jirasek has won 9 of their 23 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 21:43What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Hons
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
9-14 in 23
Hons
Wrong
gap of 5 in 23, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Jirasek 1573 vs Hons 1525
Jirasek
Correct
both rated, 48 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Jirasek 80% vs Hons 40%
Jirasek
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Jirasek 70% vs Hons 50%
Jirasek
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Jirasek +2 · Hons -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 61% — Slight lean (leans Hons) · live re-read · sealed at 67% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Hons form (40%) is below what odds imply (69%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsJirasek 2.63 / Hons 1.44
Signal prob.39% / 61%
Edge (Hons)-3.5pp (anti-value)
TT Cup · #12342605
Jirasek2.63
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog40% won 36 of 90
Down 0–1, comes back17% 8 of 46
Down 0–2, comes back3% 1 of 32
Hons1.44
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite64% won 50 of 78
Up 2–0, closes it100% 21 of 21
Up 1–0, closes it76% 35 of 46
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeJirasek3wins
AwayHons7wins
3 of 10 to a deciderHons leads 7–3, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeJirasek40%2 of 5
AwayHons80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Jirasek5Hons5n = 10split evenly
S2Jirasek5Hons5n = 10split evenly
S3Jirasek5Hons5n = 10split evenly
S4Jirasek0Hons6n = 6Hons took 6 of 6
S5Jirasek1Hons2n = 3Hons took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricJirasekHonsJ − HBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match35.438.5−3.1per matchSweeps2203–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricJirasekHonsBasisWin rate · lifetime144 / 286 vs 212 / 42350.4%50.1%144 / 286 vs 212 / 423Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.637.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
HonsJirasek 2.63/Hons 1.44
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
61%
Hons · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Jirasek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WJul 22 · 17:33M. Jirasek—611119113D. Hons—11751172
LJul 22 · 15:05M. Jirasek—91060D. Hons—1112113
LJul 14 · 13:10M. Jirasek—9940D. Hons—1111113
LJul 14 · 12:35M. Jirasek—7114111D. Hons—11811133
WJul 10 · 19:05M. Jirasek—1111113D. Hons—7790
LJun 6 · 17:45M. Jirasek—116111462D. Hons—711616113
LJun 6 · 15:35M. Jirasek—781131D. Hons—11118113
WApr 10 · 18:05M. Jirasek—1112113D. Hons—71060
LMar 31 · 19:05M. Jirasek—121131192D. Hons—1081113113
LMar 3 · 14:15M. Jirasek—129691D. Hons—101111113
M. Jirasek10
LAug 1 · 13:40M. Jirasek—11711792J. Lovl—511411113LAug 1 · 12:35R. Fitl1.8311118113M. Jirasek1.83991151WAug 1 · 10:05J. Lovl1.619190M. Jirasek2.201111113WJul 31 · 17:35M. Jirasek1.9111714113M. Holub1.785111241LJul 31 · 16:35M. Jirasek1.919880R. Fitl1.801111113WJul 31 · 15:05M. Holub1.5094111162M. Jirasek2.50111179113WJul 31 · 14:35P. Chvatal1.309118101M. Jirasek3.4011611123WJul 28 · 21:35M. Jirasek2.2812119123R. Vosyka1.5110811101WJul 28 · 20:35M. Flesar1.809980M. Jirasek1.911111113WJul 28 · 19:35M. Jirasek1.731113163M. Sokol2.00611140
D. Hons10
WSep 9 · 21:05J. Vidourek1.539970D. Hons2.381111113WSep 9 · 20:35D. Hons2.0013311113J. Martin1.731111461LSep 9 · 19:05M. Flesar2.1091211113D. Hons1.671110641LSep 9 · 18:35J. Vidourek1.571213117113D. Hons2.25141151172WSep 8 · 17:10T. Krcil1.8351191142D. Hons1.83119118113LSep 8 · 16:35D. Hons1.7311118842T. Krcil2.00461111113LSep 8 · 15:05R. Vosyka1.501111113D. Hons2.507670LSep 8 · 14:35R. Fitl1.4412119113D. Hons2.631091161WSep 7 · 17:09D. Hons2.201111113L. Vosyka1.618280WSep 7 · 16:35D. Hons2.0081112113L. Vosyka1.731151071
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