TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #12342651
Played Aug 1Finished
Radek Fitl
Home
1.83
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
119119811115––
Martin Jirasek
Away
1.83
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:42 and never touched — 54.2% is still 54.2%
Graded at full timeMartin Jirasek to win
54.2%
54.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingRadek Fitl above · Martin Jirasek below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 11-5
Point 75 set 4, 11-5 — our read held Martin Jirasek at 54.2%
75 points played in total.
H2H Radek Fitl 4–4 Martin Jirasek Dead even across their 8 meetings.
Last 8 · 4–4Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 21:42What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Jirasek
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
4-4 in 8
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Fitl 1543 vs Jirasek 1580
Jirasek
Wrong
both rated, 37 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Fitl 60% vs Jirasek 80%
Jirasek
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Fitl 50% vs Jirasek 80%
Jirasek
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Fitl -1 · Jirasek +3
Jirasek
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Jirasek)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Jirasek form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsFitl 1.83 / Jirasek 1.83
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Jirasek)+4.0pp
TT Cup · #12342651
Fitl1.83
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
Jirasek1.83
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 8 meetings
HomeFitl4wins
AwayJirasek4wins
2 of 8 to a deciderLevel at 4–4, and 2 of those 8 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeFitl60%3 of 5
AwayJirasek66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 8 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Fitl5Jirasek3n = 8Fitl took 5 of 8
S2Fitl3Jirasek5n = 8Jirasek took 5 of 8
S3Fitl4Jirasek4n = 8split evenly
S4Fitl3Jirasek2n = 5Fitl took 3 of 5
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 8 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 8 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home225%
3–1Four sets, home113%
3–2Decider, home113%
2–3Decider, away113%
1–3Four sets, away225%
0–3Straight, away113%
These 8 meetings
MetricFitlJirasekF − JBasisWins440in 8 meetingsFirst set53+2of 8Avg pointsper match36.237.0−0.8per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricFitlJirasekBasisWin rate · lifetime114 / 221 vs 145 / 28751.6%50.5%114 / 221 vs 145 / 287Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.337.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
JirasekFitl 1.83/Jirasek 1.83
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Jirasek · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Fitl won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record8
WJul 31 · 16:35R. Fitl—1111113M. Jirasek—9880
LJun 6 · 19:05R. Fitl—661161M. Jirasek—11114113
LJun 6 · 14:05R. Fitl—11650M. Jirasek—1311113
WJun 1 · 19:35R. Fitl—114713113M. Jirasek—911111192
LMay 30 · 20:05R. Fitl—117511112M. Jirasek—711119133
WMay 20 · 21:45R. Fitl—101112113M. Jirasek—1261081
LMay 20 · 20:05R. Fitl—1169101M. Jirasek—61111123
WMay 6 · 20:35R. Fitl—1113113M. Jirasek—41160
R. Fitl10
WSep 10 · 13:10M. Holub2.00811111162R. Fitl1.73111398113WSep 10 · 12:35R. Vosyka1.83611471R. Fitl1.8311711113LSep 10 · 11:35R. Fitl1.731358101J. Ruzicka2.00111111123LSep 10 · 10:05M. Holub2.00111198113R. Fitl1.7377111172WSep 8 · 17:39R. Fitl2.001211113R. Vosyka1.7310970WSep 8 · 16:05R. Vosyka1.5710121171R. Fitl2.2512147113WSep 8 · 15:35T. Krcil2.63611521R. Fitl1.4411611113WSep 8 · 14:35R. Fitl1.4412119113D. Hons2.631091161WSep 8 · 13:34R. Fitl1.80114911113J. Lovl1.9161111672WSep 8 · 12:05R. Fitl1.8311711113J. Lovl1.83211871
M. Jirasek10
LAug 1 · 13:40M. Jirasek—11711792J. Lovl—511411113WAug 1 · 11:35M. Jirasek2.6311811113D. Hons1.44711851WAug 1 · 10:05J. Lovl1.619190M. Jirasek2.201111113WJul 31 · 17:35M. Jirasek1.9111714113M. Holub1.785111241LJul 31 · 16:35M. Jirasek1.919880R. Fitl1.801111113WJul 31 · 15:05M. Holub1.5094111162M. Jirasek2.50111179113WJul 31 · 14:35P. Chvatal1.309118101M. Jirasek3.4011611123WJul 28 · 21:35M. Jirasek2.2812119123R. Vosyka1.5110811101WJul 28 · 20:35M. Flesar1.809980M. Jirasek1.911111113WJul 28 · 19:35M. Jirasek1.731113163M. Sokol2.00611140
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