TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #12314652
Played Jul 28Finished
Milan Flesar
Home
1.80
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
911911811––––
Martin Jirasek
Away
1.91
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:46 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMilan Flesar to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingMilan Flesar above · Martin Jirasek below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 8-11
Point 59 set 3, 8-11 — our read held Milan Flesar at 54.0%
59 points played in total.
H2H Milan Flesar 5–7 Martin Jirasek Milan Flesar has won 5 of their 12 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 12:46What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Flesar
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
5-7 in 12
Jirasek
Correct
gap of 2 in 12, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Flesar 1554 vs Jirasek 1482
Flesar
Wrong
both rated, 71 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Flesar 60% vs Jirasek 20%
Flesar
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Flesar 60% vs Jirasek 30%
Flesar
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Flesar +2 · Jirasek +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Flesar)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Jirasek form (20%) is below what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsFlesar 1.80 / Jirasek 1.91
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Flesar)+2.5pp
TT Cup · #12314652
Flesar1.80
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite61% won 73 of 120
Up 2–0, closes it96% 48 of 50
Up 1–0, closes it79% 62 of 79
Jirasek1.91
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog37% won 31 of 83
Down 0–1, comes back18% 8 of 44
Down 0–2, comes back3% 1 of 30
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeFlesar4wins
AwayJirasek6wins
4 of 10 to a deciderJirasek leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeFlesarn = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayJirasek62.5%5 of 8
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Flesar2Jirasek8n = 10Jirasek took 8 of 10
S2Flesar5Jirasek5n = 10split evenly
S3Flesar3Jirasek7n = 10Jirasek took 7 of 10
S4Flesar3Jirasek3n = 6split evenly
S5Flesar3Jirasek1n = 4Flesar took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricFlesarJirasekF − JBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set28−6of 10Avg pointsper match35.738.3−2.6per matchSweeps13−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricFlesarJirasekBasisWin rate · lifetime172 / 316 vs 138 / 27954.4%49.5%172 / 316 vs 138 / 279Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.337.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
FlesarFlesar 1.80/Jirasek 1.91
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Flesar · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Jirasek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LJul 12 · 19:05M. Flesar—4550M. Jirasek—1111113
LJun 14 · 19:35M. Flesar—8990M. Jirasek—1111113
WJun 13 · 19:35M. Flesar—991211113M. Jirasek—111110772
LJun 6 · 21:35M. Flesar—8780M. Jirasek—1111113
WJun 6 · 18:35M. Flesar—611511113M. Jirasek—11611382
LJun 6 · 16:35M. Flesar—51261472M. Jirasek—11101112113
WMay 31 · 14:35M. Flesar—6111110113M. Jirasek—11291292
LApr 30 · 21:40M. Flesar—311791M. Jirasek—11811113
WApr 30 · 19:05M. Flesar—1111133M. Jirasek—51110
LApr 20 · 19:05M. Flesar—11101091M. Jirasek—81212113
M. Flesar10
WSep 10 · 18:35M. Flesar1.801118113T. Krcil1.9121670LSep 9 · 21:35J. Martin1.4011119113M. Flesar2.75551181WSep 9 · 20:05M. Flesar2.0011911113J. Vidourek1.73811881WSep 9 · 19:05M. Flesar2.1091211113D. Hons1.671110641LSep 9 · 18:05M. Flesar2.256230J. Martin1.571111113LSep 8 · 21:33M. Flesar2.0051111942L. Vosyka1.73119411113WSep 8 · 20:05R. Neterda1.44811761M. Flesar2.6311411113LSep 8 · 19:35L. Vosyka1.8331111113M. Flesar1.83118691WSep 8 · 18:35M. Flesar2.001111113J. Vidourek1.737880LSep 6 · 09:05J. Martin1.671111163M. Flesar2.1088140
M. Jirasek10
LAug 1 · 13:40M. Jirasek—11711792J. Lovl—511411113LAug 1 · 12:35R. Fitl1.8311118113M. Jirasek1.83991151WAug 1 · 11:35M. Jirasek2.6311811113D. Hons1.44711851WAug 1 · 10:05J. Lovl1.619190M. Jirasek2.201111113WJul 31 · 17:35M. Jirasek1.9111714113M. Holub1.785111241LJul 31 · 16:35M. Jirasek1.919880R. Fitl1.801111113WJul 31 · 15:05M. Holub1.5094111162M. Jirasek2.50111179113WJul 31 · 14:35P. Chvatal1.309118101M. Jirasek3.4011611123WJul 28 · 21:35M. Jirasek2.2812119123R. Vosyka1.5110811101WJul 28 · 19:35M. Jirasek1.731113163M. Sokol2.00611140
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