TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #12338810
Played Jul 31Finished
Pavel Chvatal
Home
1.30
At publish
Won last 4Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 4
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
9111168111012––
Martin Jirasek
Away
3.40
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:12 and never touched — 68.1% is still 68.1%
Graded at full timePavel Chvatal to win
68.1%
68.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingPavel Chvatal above · Martin Jirasek below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 10-12
Point 78 set 4, 10-12 — our read held Pavel Chvatal at 68.1%
78 points played in total.
H2H Pavel Chvatal 5–1 Martin Jirasek Martin Jirasek has won 1 of their 6 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 10:12What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.30 (72%)
Chvatal
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
5-1 in 6
Chvatal
Wrong
gap of 4 in 6, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Chvatal 1676 vs Jirasek 1543
Chvatal
Wrong
both rated, 133 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Chvatal 80% vs Jirasek 60%
Chvatal
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Chvatal 60% vs Jirasek 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Chvatal +4 · Jirasek +3
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 82% — Strong (leans Chvatal) · live re-read · sealed at 68% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Jirasek form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (29%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsChvatal 1.30 / Jirasek 3.40
Signal prob.82% / 18%
Edge (Chvatal)+10.0pp
TT Cup · #12338810
Chvatal1.30
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 4
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite56% won 36 of 64
Up 2–0, closes it86% 12 of 14
Up 1–0, closes it73% 27 of 37
Jirasek3.40
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog38% won 33 of 86
Down 0–1, comes back18% 8 of 45
Down 0–2, comes back3% 1 of 31
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 6 meetings
HomeChvatal5wins
AwayJirasek1wins
1 of 6 to a deciderChvatal leads 5–1, and 1 of those 6 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeChvatal100%4 of 4
AwayJirasekn = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 6 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Chvatal4Jirasek2n = 6Chvatal took 4 of 6
S2Chvatal6Jirasek0n = 6Chvatal took 6 of 6
S3Chvatal3Jirasek3n = 6split evenly
S4Chvatal2Jirasek1n = 3Chvatal took 2 of 3
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 6 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 6 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home350%
3–1Four sets, home117%
3–2Decider, home117%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away117%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 6 meetings
MetricChvatalJirasekC − JBasisWins51+4in 6 meetingsFirst set42+2of 6Avg pointsper match38.830.3+8.5per matchSweeps30+33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricChvatalJirasekBasisWin rate · lifetime117 / 212 vs 141 / 28255.2%50%117 / 212 vs 141 / 282Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.637.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ChvatalChvatal 1.30/Jirasek 3.40
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
82.3%
Chvatal · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Jirasek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record6
LJul 31 · 14:35P. Chvatal—9118101M. Jirasek—11611123
WJul 14 · 10:35P. Chvatal—914811113M. Jirasek—111211742
WMar 5 · 12:35P. Chvatal—1111113M. Jirasek—9840
WFeb 19 · 14:10P. Chvatal—13117123M. Jirasek—11511101
WFeb 19 · 11:05P. Chvatal—1111113M. Jirasek—4870
WDec 12 · 12:35P. Chvatal—1111113M. Jirasek—9470
P. Chvatal10
WAug 31 · 13:35M. Holub2.001111481P. Chvatal1.7313511113WAug 31 · 12:35P. Chvatal1.571211113K. Lahodny2.2510880LAug 31 · 11:05M. Holub1.83711811113P. Chvatal1.8311911272WAug 31 · 10:35R. Fitl2.25551261P. Chvatal1.57111110113LAug 28 · 13:40P. Chvatal1.73111031192R. Neterda2.00912115113LAug 28 · 12:05P. Chvatal1.916111110112M. Holub1.80119312133WAug 28 · 11:05P. Chvatal2.00118119143R. Vosyka1.73511711122WAug 28 · 10:05P. Chvatal1.731112137113R. Neterda2.00414111142LAug 27 · 13:09K. Lahodny2.109111110113P. Chvatal1.6711881272WAug 27 · 12:05P. Chvatal2.00991111123R. Vosyka1.73111159102
M. Jirasek10
LAug 1 · 13:40M. Jirasek—11711792J. Lovl—511411113LAug 1 · 12:35R. Fitl1.8311118113M. Jirasek1.83991151WAug 1 · 11:35M. Jirasek2.6311811113D. Hons1.44711851WAug 1 · 10:05J. Lovl1.619190M. Jirasek2.201111113WJul 31 · 17:35M. Jirasek1.9111714113M. Holub1.785111241LJul 31 · 16:35M. Jirasek1.919880R. Fitl1.801111113WJul 31 · 15:05M. Holub1.5094111162M. Jirasek2.50111179113WJul 28 · 21:35M. Jirasek2.2812119123R. Vosyka1.5110811101WJul 28 · 20:35M. Flesar1.809980M. Jirasek1.911111113WJul 28 · 19:35M. Jirasek1.731113163M. Sokol2.00611140
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