TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #12338920
Played Jul 31Finished
Martin Jirasek
Home
1.91
At publish
Won last 5Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 5
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
911811811––––
Radek Fitl
Away
1.80
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:36 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeRadek Fitl to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMartin Jirasek above · Radek Fitl below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 8-11
Point 58 set 3, 8-11 — our read held Radek Fitl at 54.0%
58 points played in total.
H2H Martin Jirasek 4–3 Radek Fitl Radek Fitl has won 3 of their 7 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 10:36What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Fitl
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
4-3 in 7
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Jirasek 1552 vs Fitl 1542
Jirasek
Wrong
both rated, 10 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Jirasek 100% vs Fitl 60%
Jirasek
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Jirasek 50% vs Fitl 70%
Fitl
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Jirasek +5 · Fitl -2
Jirasek
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Jirasek) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Jirasek form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsJirasek 1.91 / Fitl 1.80
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Jirasek)+5.5pp
TT Cup · #12338920
Jirasek1.91
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 5
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog38% won 33 of 86
Down 0–1, comes back18% 8 of 45
Down 0–2, comes back3% 1 of 31
Fitl1.80
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite70% won 38 of 54
Up 2–0, closes it82% 18 of 22
Up 1–0, closes it88% 28 of 32
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 7 meetings
HomeJirasek4wins
AwayFitl3wins
2 of 7 to a deciderJirasek leads 4–3, and 2 of those 7 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeJirasek66.7%2 of 3
AwayFitl50%2 of 4
Set by set, in these 7 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Jirasek3Fitl4n = 7Fitl took 4 of 7
S2Jirasek5Fitl2n = 7Jirasek took 5 of 7
S3Jirasek4Fitl3n = 7Jirasek took 4 of 7
S4Jirasek2Fitl3n = 5Fitl took 3 of 5
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 7 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 7 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home114%
3–1Four sets, home229%
3–2Decider, home114%
2–3Decider, away114%
1–3Four sets, away114%
0–3Straight, away114%
These 7 meetings
MetricJirasekFitlJ − FBasisWins43+1in 7 meetingsFirst set34−1of 7Avg pointsper match38.736.7+2.0per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricJirasekFitlBasisWin rate · lifetime142 / 283 vs 109 / 21350.2%51.2%142 / 283 vs 109 / 213Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.637.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
JirasekJirasek 1.91/Fitl 1.80
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Jirasek · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Fitl won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record7
WJun 6 · 19:05M. Jirasek—11114113R. Fitl—661161
WJun 6 · 14:05M. Jirasek—1311113R. Fitl—11650
LJun 1 · 19:35M. Jirasek—911111192R. Fitl—114713113
WMay 30 · 20:05M. Jirasek—711119133R. Fitl—117511112
LMay 20 · 21:45M. Jirasek—1261081R. Fitl—101112113
WMay 20 · 20:05M. Jirasek—61111123R. Fitl—1169101
LMay 6 · 20:35M. Jirasek—41160R. Fitl—1113113
M. Jirasek10
LAug 1 · 13:40M. Jirasek—11711792J. Lovl—511411113LAug 1 · 12:35R. Fitl1.8311118113M. Jirasek1.83991151WAug 1 · 11:35M. Jirasek2.6311811113D. Hons1.44711851WAug 1 · 10:05J. Lovl1.619190M. Jirasek2.201111113WJul 31 · 17:35M. Jirasek1.9111714113M. Holub1.785111241WJul 31 · 15:05M. Holub1.5094111162M. Jirasek2.50111179113WJul 31 · 14:35P. Chvatal1.309118101M. Jirasek3.4011611123WJul 28 · 21:35M. Jirasek2.2812119123R. Vosyka1.5110811101WJul 28 · 20:35M. Flesar1.809980M. Jirasek1.911111113WJul 28 · 19:35M. Jirasek1.731113163M. Sokol2.00611140
R. Fitl10
WSep 10 · 13:10M. Holub2.00811111162R. Fitl1.73111398113WSep 10 · 12:35R. Vosyka1.83611471R. Fitl1.8311711113LSep 10 · 11:35R. Fitl1.731358101J. Ruzicka2.00111111123LSep 10 · 10:05M. Holub2.00111198113R. Fitl1.7377111172WSep 8 · 17:39R. Fitl2.001211113R. Vosyka1.7310970WSep 8 · 16:05R. Vosyka1.5710121171R. Fitl2.2512147113WSep 8 · 15:35T. Krcil2.63611521R. Fitl1.4411611113WSep 8 · 14:35R. Fitl1.4412119113D. Hons2.631091161WSep 8 · 13:34R. Fitl1.80114911113J. Lovl1.9161111672WAug 1 · 12:35R. Fitl1.8311118113M. Jirasek1.83991151
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