TT Lossbeater/Challenger Series TT
Challenger Series TTMatch #11913429
Played May 21Finished
Jaime Lama
Home
2.10
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
911119171512141012
Luis Kraus
Away
1.67
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
How it is goingJaime Lama above · Luis Kraus below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 17-15
Set 4 · 12-14
Set 5 · 10-12
Point 120 set 5, 10-12
120 points played in total.
H2H Jaime Lama 5–4 Luis Kraus Luis Kraus has won 4 of their 9 meetings.
Signal confidence: 55% — Coin-flip (leans Kraus)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Lama form (20%) is below what odds imply (48%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsLama 2.10 / Kraus 1.67
Signal prob.45% / 55%
Edge (Kraus)-1.0pp
Challenger Series TT · #11913429
Lama2.10
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
10%takes the first set · 1 of 10
Kraus1.67
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 9 meetings
HomeLama5wins
AwayKraus4wins
4 of 9 to a deciderLama leads 5–4, and 4 of those 9 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeLama75%3 of 4
AwayKraus60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 9 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Lama4Kraus5n = 9Kraus took 5 of 9
S2Lama5Kraus4n = 9Lama took 5 of 9
S3Lama4Kraus5n = 9Kraus took 5 of 9
S4Lama3Kraus4n = 7Kraus took 4 of 7
S5Lama3Kraus1n = 4Lama took 3 of 4
How those 9 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 9 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home111%
3–1Four sets, home111%
3–2Decider, home333%
2–3Decider, away111%
1–3Four sets, away222%
0–3Straight, away111%
These 9 meetings
MetricLamaKrausL − KBasisWins54+1in 9 meetingsFirst set45−1of 9Avg pointsper match38.739.1−0.4per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricLamaKrausBasisWin rate · lifetime82 / 213 vs 64 / 18138.5%35.4%82 / 213 vs 64 / 181Avg sets wonper match1.71.5per matchAvg pointsper match34.131.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KrausLama 2.10/Kraus 1.67
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54.8%
Kraus · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Kraus won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record9
WMay 18 · 07:00J. Lama—3L. Kraus—2
LApr 27 · 15:00J. Lama—1L. Kraus—3
WMar 19 · 12:30J. Lama—3L. Kraus—2
LFeb 12 · 18:00J. Lama—0L. Kraus—3
WJan 15 · 11:30J. Lama—3L. Kraus—0
WDec 15 · 14:00J. Lama—3L. Kraus—1
LOct 20 · 07:00J. Lama—1L. Kraus—3
LAug 25 · 08:30J. Lama—2L. Kraus—3
WAug 19 · 08:00J. Lama—3L. Kraus—2
J. Lama10
WMay 22 · 08:00J. Lama1.53911111113S. Happek2.3811911462LMay 21 · 17:00J. Lama10.008590M. Danzer1.031111113WMay 21 · 14:00J. Lama1.10119911113A. Moreno6.5081111682WMay 21 · 10:30J. Lama1.3391111113D. Zech3.25114791LMay 21 · 08:30J. Lama10.005131181R. Turrini1.0311156113LMay 21 · 06:30J. Lama6.0068100D. Rinderer1.111111123LMay 19 · 08:30J. Lama7.0010790M. Hollo1.081211113LMay 19 · 06:30J. Lama8.001512681K. Fadeev1.06171011113LMay 18 · 16:00J. Lama2.6391141172J. Loffler1.44116118113LMay 18 · 12:30J. Lama8.505760I. Bertrand1.051111113
L. Kraus10
WAug 7 · 10:30L. Kraus6.5011119113K. Fadeev1.10891191LAug 7 · 09:16A. Mino1.201111113L. Kraus4.008530LAug 7 · 06:30A. Mino1.171181011113L. Kraus4.5081112822LAug 6 · 16:30D. Zech3.00811411113L. Kraus1.3611911432LAug 6 · 15:00K. Fadeev1.14717115133L. Kraus5.001115711112LAug 6 · 13:30L. Kraus2.5087111152K. Zimmermann1.50111188113WAug 6 · 11:30L. Kraus2.151161110113T. Saltzer1.6351171272WAug 6 · 10:00L. Kraus1.251111113T. Freund3.758730WAug 6 · 08:00S. Happek2.50681181L. Kraus1.5011119113WAug 4 · 06:30J. Willeke2.63661141L. Kraus1.4411117113
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