TT Lossbeater/Challenger Series TT
Challenger Series TTMatch #11913430
Played May 21Finished
Jaime Lama
Home
1.10
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
118911911116118
Alex Moreno
Away
6.50
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
2–8Last 10Won last 1
How it is goingJaime Lama above · Alex Moreno below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 11-6
Set 5 · 11-8
Point 95 set 5, 11-8
95 points played in total.
H2H Jaime Lama 3–1 Alex Moreno Alex Moreno has won 1 of their 4 meetings.
Signal confidence: 86% — Strong (leans Lama)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Lama form (20%) is below what odds imply (91%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsLama 1.10 / Moreno 6.50
Signal prob.86% / 15%
Edge (Lama)-0.0pp
Challenger Series TT · #11913430
Lama1.10
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
10%takes the first set · 1 of 10
Moreno6.50
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 4 meetings
HomeLama3wins
AwayMoreno1wins
1 of 4 to a deciderLama leads 3–1, and 1 of those 4 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeLama75%3 of 4
AwayMorenon = 0, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 4 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Lama4Moreno0n = 4Lama took 4 of 4
S2Lama4Moreno0n = 4Lama took 4 of 4
S3Lama3Moreno1n = 4Lama took 3 of 4
S4
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 4 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 4 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home375%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away125%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 4 meetings
MetricLamaMorenoL − MBasisWins31+2in 4 meetingsFirst set40+4of 4Avg pointsper match37.223.8+13.4per matchSweeps30+33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricLamaMorenoBasisWin rate · lifetime82 / 213 vs 11 / 7938.5%13.9%82 / 213 vs 11 / 79Avg sets wonper match1.70.9per matchAvg pointsper match34.128.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
LamaLama 1.10/Moreno 6.50
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
85.5%
Lama · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Lama won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record4
WApr 7 · 07:00J. Lama—3A. Moreno—0
WMar 20 · 09:30J. Lama—3A. Moreno—0
LMar 9 · 16:30J. Lama—2A. Moreno—3
WJan 12 · 13:30J. Lama—3A. Moreno—0
J. Lama10
WMay 22 · 08:00J. Lama1.53911111113S. Happek2.3811911462LMay 21 · 17:00J. Lama10.008590M. Danzer1.031111113LMay 21 · 15:00J. Lama2.109111712102L. Kraus1.671191514123WMay 21 · 10:30J. Lama1.3391111113D. Zech3.25114791LMay 21 · 08:30J. Lama10.005131181R. Turrini1.0311156113LMay 21 · 06:30J. Lama6.0068100D. Rinderer1.111111123LMay 19 · 08:30J. Lama7.0010790M. Hollo1.081211113LMay 19 · 06:30J. Lama8.001512681K. Fadeev1.06171011113LMay 18 · 16:00J. Lama2.6391141172J. Loffler1.44116118113LMay 18 · 12:30J. Lama8.505760I. Bertrand1.051111113
A. Moreno10
LAug 25 · 08:30A. Moreno1.73511571M. Kupfer2.0011911113WAug 25 · 06:30A. Moreno1.611111113J. Willeke2.208940LAug 24 · 16:00A. Moreno8.506650M. Danzer1.051111113LAug 24 · 12:30A. Moreno6.00811961M. Henninger1.1111611113LAug 24 · 11:00A. Moreno7.507760V. Yefimov1.071111113WAug 24 · 08:30P. Koloidenko1.08167111162A. Moreno7.00181196113LAug 24 · 07:00A. Moreno—861161E. Huzsvar—11115113LAug 21 · 08:15S. Almeida1.401111113A. Moreno2.767590LAug 20 · 16:30E. Huzsvar—11115113A. Moreno—581171LAug 20 · 15:30A. Moreno15.009510D. Rinderer1.011111113
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