TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Adam Pavlik vs Petr Provaznik 3-1 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Sep 25Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
119118511114––
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:17 and never touched — 57.0% is still 57.0%
Graded at full timePetr Provaznik to win
57.0%
57.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingAdam Pavlik above · Petr Provaznik below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 5-11
Set 4 · 11-4
Point 70 set 4, 11-4 — our read held Petr Provaznik at 57.0%
70 points played in total.
H2H Adam Pavlik 9–15 Petr Provaznik Adam Pavlik has won 9 of their 24 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 19:17What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Provaznik
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
9-15 in 24
Provaznik
Wrong
gap of 6 in 24, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Pavlik 1567 vs Provaznik 1557
Pavlik
Correct
both rated, 10 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Pavlik 40% vs Provaznik 60%
Provaznik
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Pavlik 50% vs Provaznik 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Pavlik +1 · Provaznik +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 57% — Slight lean (leans Provaznik)
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPavlik 2.10 / Provaznik 1.67
Signal prob.43% / 57%
Edge (Provaznik)+1.2pp
Setka Cup · #13191156
Pavlik2.10
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 6 days ago (Sep 19)
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog50% won 34 of 68
Down 0–1, comes back27% 10 of 37
Down 0–2, comes back14% 3 of 21
Provaznik1.67
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 8 days ago (Sep 17) · back after a break
Won last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite53% won 50 of 95
Up 2–0, closes it84% 21 of 25
Up 1–0, closes it65% 32 of 49
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomePavlik3wins
AwayProvaznik7wins
3 of 10 to a deciderProvaznik leads 7–3, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePavlik75%3 of 4
AwayProvaznik100%6 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Pavlik4Provaznik6n = 10Provaznik took 6 of 10
S2Pavlik4Provaznik6n = 10Provaznik took 6 of 10
S3Pavlik5Provaznik5n = 10split evenly
S4Pavlik2Provaznik2n = 4split evenly
S5Pavlik0Provaznik3n = 3Provaznik took 3 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricPavlikProvaznikPavlik − ProvaznikBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match32.037.3−5.3per matchSweeps23−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPavlikProvaznikBasisWin rate · lifetime164 / 320 vs 236 / 49051.3%48.2%164 / 320 vs 236 / 490Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.538.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ProvaznikPavlik 2.10/Provaznik 1.67
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
57%
Provaznik · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Pavlik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record9
LAug 28 · 20:19A. Pavlik259970P. Provaznik331111113
LAug 6 · 16:48A. Pavlik4211771162P. Provaznik49811118113
LAug 6 · 13:15A. Pavlik2041060P. Provaznik341112113
WJul 8 · 15:00A. Pavlik331111113P. Provaznik154560
WJun 29 · 16:48A. Pavlik351113113P. Provaznik2681170
LJun 29 · 14:15A. Pavlik4247111642P. Provaznik551111814113
LApr 15 · 16:28A. Pavlik34871181P. Provaznik3911116113
LApr 15 · 14:30A. Pavlik43111111642P. Provaznik52139811113
LApr 10 · 15:00A. Pavlik148330P. Provaznik331111113
A. Pavlik10
WSep 19 · 20:33T. Hucko1.447950A. Pavlik2.631111113LSep 19 · 19:30A. Pavlik2.206990T. Hucko1.611111113LSep 19 · 18:30A. Pavlik2.1091112472L. Kolman1.671191011113WSep 19 · 17:30A. Pavlik2.3871111113M. Svitac1.53116891LSep 11 · 16:34V. Lopata1.80115119113A. Pavlik1.9171191192LSep 11 · 15:30A. Pavlik2.00104100O. Horak1.731211123LSep 11 · 14:30A. Pavlik1.83137110P. Hala1.831511133WSep 11 · 13:30A. Pavlik2.201211113V. Lopata1.6110750WSep 7 · 20:29S. Kalensky2.2091211101A. Pavlik1.6111149123WSep 7 · 19:30P. Orlowski1.8085110A. Pavlik1.911111133
P. Provaznik10
WSep 25 · 14:15T. Kanka2.631191181P. Provaznik1.4413114103WSep 17 · 16:23R. Merkl1.9111117182P. Provaznik1.80941111113WSep 17 · 15:15P. Provaznik1.83117511113R. Merkl1.8331111682LSep 17 · 14:15P. Provaznik1.738111091V. Lopata2.0011912113WSep 17 · 13:15P. Provaznik2.50111159153P. Hala1.50881111132LSep 16 · 16:14O. Horak1.731111113P. Provaznik2.008860LSep 16 · 15:15T. Bertho2.0011711113P. Provaznik1.73611881LSep 16 · 14:45P. Provaznik1.8011951182J. Juppa1.91711119113WSep 16 · 13:45P. Provaznik2.00116134123O. Horak1.738111111102WSep 10 · 20:20P. Provaznik—7121111113O. Chadima—11148892
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