TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Tomas Kanka vs Adam Pavlik 2-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Sep 25Finished
Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 5
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
1161012117911811
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:16 and never touched — 54.1% is still 54.1%
Graded at full timeTomas Kanka to win
54.1%
54.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingTomas Kanka above · Adam Pavlik below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 10-12
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 9-11
Set 5 · 8-11
Point 96 set 5, 8-11 — our read held Tomas Kanka at 54.1%
96 points played in total.
H2H Tomas Kanka 17–13 Adam Pavlik Adam Pavlik has won 13 of their 30 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 19:16What took a side3 for · 3 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Kanka
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
17-13 in 30
Kanka
Wrong
gap of 4 in 30, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kanka 1509 vs Pavlik 1568
Pavlik
Correct
both rated, 59 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kanka 0% vs Pavlik 40%
Pavlik
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kanka 20% vs Pavlik 40%
Pavlik
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kanka -5 · Pavlik -1
Kanka
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Kanka)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kanka form (0%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKanka 1.73 / Pavlik 2.00
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Kanka)+0.3pp
Setka Cup · #13191124
Kanka1.73
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 5
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite56% won 36 of 64
Up 2–0, closes it80% 12 of 15
Up 1–0, closes it72% 23 of 32
Pavlik2.00
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog50% won 34 of 68
Down 0–1, comes back27% 10 of 37
Down 0–2, comes back14% 3 of 21
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKanka8wins
AwayPavlik2wins
2 of 10 to a deciderKanka leads 8–2, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKanka100%6 of 6
AwayPavlik50%2 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kanka6Pavlik4n = 10Kanka took 6 of 10
S2Kanka4Pavlik6n = 10Pavlik took 6 of 10
S3Kanka7Pavlik3n = 10Kanka took 7 of 10
S4Kanka6Pavlik2n = 8Kanka took 6 of 8
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home550%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricKankaPavlikK − PBasisWins82+6in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match38.735.2+3.5per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKankaPavlikBasisWin rate · lifetime181 / 379 vs 163 / 31847.8%51.3%181 / 379 vs 163 / 318Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.338.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KankaKanka 1.73/Pavlik 2.00
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Kanka · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Pavlik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 30 · 07:30T. Kanka49711119113A. Pavlik4611961192
WJul 17 · 14:45T. Kanka331111113A. Pavlik239860
WJul 1 · 17:03T. Kanka3911116113A. Pavlik34861191
WJul 1 · 15:00T. Kanka4111712113A. Pavlik323111081
WMay 26 · 14:00T. Kanka3911611113A. Pavlik29411681
WApr 25 · 08:16T. Kanka4111811113A. Pavlik32711591
LApr 25 · 07:15T. Kanka2648140A. Pavlik381111163
WApr 10 · 15:30T. Kanka3711411113A. Pavlik35711891
WMar 31 · 14:00T. Kanka49911711113A. Pavlik4211611772
LMar 23 · 17:33T. Kanka33961171A. Pavlik4111118113
T. Kanka10
LSep 25 · 14:15T. Kanka2.631191181P. Provaznik1.4413114103LSep 25 · 13:15T. Kanka2.38116891L. Kolman1.5391111113LSep 20 · 08:33T. Kanka1.73911851D. Brichacek2.0011611113LSep 20 · 08:00T. Kanka2.2048110P. Orlowski1.611111133LSep 20 · 06:30L. Kolman1.50111196113T. Kanka2.5069111182WSep 20 · 06:00D. Brichacek1.6110880T. Kanka2.201211113LSep 12 · 08:24T. Kanka2.2018760Z. Kuksa1.612011113WSep 12 · 07:45D. Brichacek1.57915110T. Kanka2.251117133LSep 12 · 06:45Z. Kuksa1.7311911113T. Kanka2.00711471LSep 12 · 05:15M. Taranko2.6351115113T. Kanka1.441141391
A. Pavlik10
LSep 25 · 14:45A. Pavlik2.10411791L. Kolman1.6711911113WSep 25 · 13:45A. Pavlik2.1011115113P. Provaznik1.67981141WSep 19 · 20:33T. Hucko1.447950A. Pavlik2.631111113LSep 19 · 19:30A. Pavlik2.206990T. Hucko1.611111113LSep 19 · 18:30A. Pavlik2.1091112472L. Kolman1.671191011113WSep 19 · 17:30A. Pavlik2.3871111113M. Svitac1.53116891LSep 11 · 16:34V. Lopata1.80115119113A. Pavlik1.9171191192LSep 11 · 15:30A. Pavlik2.00104100O. Horak1.731211123LSep 11 · 14:30A. Pavlik1.83137110P. Hala1.831511133WSep 11 · 13:30A. Pavlik2.201211113V. Lopata1.6110750
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