TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Sep 20Finished
Tomas Kanka
Home
2.20
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
4118111113––––
Petr Orlowski
Away
1.62
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:45 and never touched — 60.9% is still 60.9%
Graded at full timePetr Orlowski to win
60.9%
60.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingTomas Kanka above · Petr Orlowski below
Set 1 · 4-11
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 11-13
Point 58 set 3, 11-13 — our read held Petr Orlowski at 60.9%
58 points played in total.
H2H Tomas Kanka 3–4 Petr Orlowski Tomas Kanka has won 3 of their 7 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 19:45What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Orlowski
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-4 in 7
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kanka 1545 vs Orlowski 1687
Orlowski
Correct
both rated, 142 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kanka 40% vs Orlowski 80%
Orlowski
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kanka 30% vs Orlowski 60%
Orlowski
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kanka -1 · Orlowski +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 61% — Slight lean (leans Orlowski)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Orlowski form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (62%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKanka 2.20 / Orlowski 1.61
Signal prob.39% / 61%
Edge (Orlowski)+3.2pp
Setka Cup · #13161066
Kanka2.20
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog37% won 40 of 108
Down 0–1, comes back24% 16 of 66
Down 0–2, comes back10% 4 of 39
Orlowski1.61
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite58% won 55 of 95
Up 2–0, closes it93% 26 of 28
Up 1–0, closes it76% 41 of 54
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 7 meetings
HomeKanka3wins
AwayOrlowski4wins
2 of 7 to a deciderOrlowski leads 4–3, and 2 of those 7 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKankan = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayOrlowski60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 7 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kanka2Orlowski5n = 7Orlowski took 5 of 7
S2Kanka4Orlowski3n = 7Kanka took 4 of 7
S3Kanka3Orlowski4n = 7Orlowski took 4 of 7
S4Kanka3Orlowski2n = 5Kanka took 3 of 5
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 7 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 7 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home114%
3–1Four sets, home114%
3–2Decider, home114%
2–3Decider, away114%
1–3Four sets, away229%
0–3Straight, away114%
These 7 meetings
MetricKankaOrlowskiK − OBasisWins34−1in 7 meetingsFirst set25−3of 7Avg pointsper match37.137.4−0.3per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKankaOrlowskiBasisWin rate · lifetime181 / 375 vs 192 / 35848.3%53.6%181 / 375 vs 192 / 358Avg sets wonper match2.02.2per matchAvg pointsper match38.340.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
OrlowskiKanka 2.20/Orlowski 1.61
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
60.9%
Orlowski · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Orlowski won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record7
WAug 22 · 07:30T. Kanka331111113P. Orlowski209740
LMar 7 · 07:15T. Kanka4341161392P. Orlowski501161111113
WOct 11 · 09:05T. Kanka3951211113P. Orlowski271110421
WOct 11 · 05:15T. Kanka561611711113P. Orlowski4518911162
LJun 29 · 07:15T. Kanka351151091P. Orlowski4281112113
LMar 27 · 21:19T. Kanka35851481P. Orlowski45111112113
LMar 27 · 20:15T. Kanka194870P. Orlowski331111113
T. Kanka10
LSep 20 · 08:33T. Kanka1.73911851D. Brichacek2.0011611113LSep 20 · 06:30L. Kolman1.50111196113T. Kanka2.5069111182WSep 20 · 06:00D. Brichacek1.6110880T. Kanka2.201211113LSep 12 · 08:24T. Kanka2.2018760Z. Kuksa1.612011113WSep 12 · 07:45D. Brichacek1.57915110T. Kanka2.251117133LSep 12 · 06:45Z. Kuksa1.7311911113T. Kanka2.00711471LSep 12 · 05:15M. Taranko2.6351115113T. Kanka1.441141391WSep 8 · 12:14L. Kolman1.5051080T. Kanka2.501112113LSep 8 · 11:15T. Kanka1.911312491M. Svitac1.80111411113LSep 8 · 10:15T. Kanka2.38116651Z. Vasatko1.5361111113
P. Orlowski10
WSep 20 · 09:03P. Orlowski1.67711912143L. Kolman2.101151110122WSep 20 · 07:00D. Brichacek1.57211841P. Orlowski2.2511511113WSep 20 · 05:30L. Kolman1.91413691P. Orlowski1.80111111113LSep 19 · 09:09D. Brichacek1.671111113P. Orlowski2.109880WSep 19 · 07:30L. Stoces1.805470P. Orlowski1.911111113WSep 19 · 07:00P. Orlowski2.1011115113D. Brichacek1.67451181LSep 19 · 06:00P. Orlowski1.911091214152J. Jnr1.8012111012173LSep 17 · 20:44P. Orlowski1.919960D. Brichacek1.801111113WSep 17 · 19:45M. Hajek1.735970P. Orlowski2.001111113LSep 17 · 18:45P. Oplt1.671114611113P. Orlowski2.1091611872
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