TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Sep 20Finished
Leon Kolman
Home
1.91
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
4111311611911––
Petr Orlowski
Away
1.80
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:14 and never touched — 55.1% is still 55.1%
Graded at full timePetr Orlowski to win
55.1%
55.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingLeon Kolman above · Petr Orlowski below
Set 1 · 4-11
Set 2 · 13-11
Set 3 · 6-11
Set 4 · 9-11
Point 76 set 4, 9-11 — our read held Petr Orlowski at 55.1%
76 points played in total.
H2H Leon Kolman 6–8 Petr Orlowski Leon Kolman has won 6 of their 14 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 19:14What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Orlowski
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
6-8 in 14
Orlowski
Correct
gap of 2 in 14, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kolman 1564 vs Orlowski 1665
Orlowski
Correct
both rated, 102 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kolman 40% vs Orlowski 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kolman 30% vs Orlowski 60%
Orlowski
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kolman +1 · Orlowski -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 55% — Slight lean (leans Orlowski)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Orlowski form (40%) is below what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKolman 1.91 / Orlowski 1.80
Signal prob.45% / 55%
Edge (Orlowski)+3.6pp
Setka Cup · #13160979
Kolman1.91
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog43% won 64 of 149
Down 0–1, comes back21% 15 of 72
Down 0–2, comes back9% 3 of 34
Orlowski1.80
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite58% won 55 of 95
Up 2–0, closes it93% 26 of 28
Up 1–0, closes it76% 41 of 54
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKolman5wins
AwayOrlowski5wins
6 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 6 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKolman80%4 of 5
AwayOrlowski80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kolman5Orlowski5n = 10split evenly
S2Kolman6Orlowski4n = 10Kolman took 6 of 10
S3Kolman4Orlowski6n = 10Orlowski took 6 of 10
S4Kolman2Orlowski7n = 9Orlowski took 7 of 9
S5Kolman4Orlowski2n = 6Kolman took 4 of 6
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home440%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricKolmanOrlowskiK − OBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match39.143.2−4.1per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKolmanOrlowskiBasisWin rate · lifetime362 / 691 vs 190 / 35652.4%53.4%362 / 691 vs 190 / 356Avg sets wonper match2.22.2per matchAvg pointsper match40.640.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
OrlowskiKolman 1.91/Orlowski 1.80
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
55.1%
Orlowski · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Orlowski won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 22 · 05:30L. Kolman4011711113P. Orlowski33411991
WJul 19 · 15:30L. Kolman52118146133P. Orlowski538111211112
LJun 13 · 05:15L. Kolman3711116452P. Orlowski48691111113
LApr 11 · 19:15L. Kolman26341181P. Orlowski3811115113
WApr 7 · 18:00L. Kolman45121165113P. Orlowski47107111182
WApr 3 · 08:48L. Kolman45111139113P. Orlowski4178111142
LApr 3 · 05:45L. Kolman2251160P. Orlowski351113113
WMar 21 · 07:15L. Kolman45411811113P. Orlowski4911911992
LMar 1 · 16:15L. Kolman321211541P. Orlowski4414811113
LFeb 17 · 21:00L. Kolman4781111892P. Orlowski44117411113
L. Kolman10
WSep 20 · 06:30L. Kolman1.50111196113T. Kanka2.5069111182WSep 19 · 21:04M. Svitac1.67911110L. Kolman2.101113133LSep 19 · 20:00L. Kolman2.20710111242M. Svitac1.611112410113WSep 19 · 18:30A. Pavlik2.1091112472L. Kolman1.671191011113LSep 19 · 18:00T. Hucko1.731012911163L. Kolman2.001210118142LSep 18 · 16:51L. Kolman2.50611891M. Hajek1.5011511113WSep 18 · 15:45M. Hajek1.9111751272L. Kolman1.805111110113LSep 18 · 14:45P. Semrad1.611111113L. Kolman2.204860LSep 18 · 13:15D. Marasek1.4013118113L. Kolman2.751181161LSep 16 · 21:08L. Kolman1.8351181382L. Provaznik1.831161111113
P. Orlowski10
LSep 19 · 09:09D. Brichacek1.671111113P. Orlowski2.109880WSep 19 · 07:30L. Stoces1.805470P. Orlowski1.911111113WSep 19 · 07:00P. Orlowski2.1011115113D. Brichacek1.67451181LSep 19 · 06:00P. Orlowski1.911091214152J. Jnr1.8012111012173LSep 17 · 20:44P. Orlowski1.919960D. Brichacek1.801111113WSep 17 · 19:45M. Hajek1.735970P. Orlowski2.001111113LSep 17 · 18:45P. Oplt1.671114611113P. Orlowski2.1091611872WSep 17 · 17:15D. Brichacek1.7311771572P. Orlowski2.008111113113WSep 9 · 20:43J. Jnr1.8311118972P. Orlowski1.83851111113WSep 9 · 19:15J. Gruber2.00311911122P. Orlowski1.73117118143
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