TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13143176
Played Sep 16Finished
Leon Kolman
Home
1.83
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
5111168111311811
Lukas Provaznik
Away
1.83
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
How it is goingLeon Kolman above · Lukas Provaznik below
Set 1 · 5-11
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 13-11
Set 5 · 8-11
Point 95 set 5, 8-11
95 points played in total.
H2H Leon Kolman 3–6 Lukas Provaznik Leon Kolman has won 3 of their 9 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 4h before this match
Kolman beat Provaznik 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Provaznik)
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKolman 1.83 / Provaznik 1.83
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Provaznik)+4.0pp
Setka Cup · #13143176
Kolman1.83
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
Provaznik1.83
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 9 meetings
HomeKolman3wins
AwayProvaznik6wins
4 of 9 to a deciderProvaznik leads 6–3, and 4 of those 9 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKolman40%2 of 5
AwayProvaznik75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 9 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kolman5Provaznik4n = 9Kolman took 5 of 9
S2Kolman2Provaznik7n = 9Provaznik took 7 of 9
S3Kolman5Provaznik4n = 9Kolman took 5 of 9
S4Kolman5Provaznik4n = 9Kolman took 5 of 9
S5Kolman1Provaznik3n = 4Provaznik took 3 of 4
How those 9 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 9 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home222%
3–2Decider, home111%
2–3Decider, away333%
1–3Four sets, away333%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 9 meetings
MetricKolmanProvaznikK − PBasisWins36−3in 9 meetingsFirst set54+1of 9Avg pointsper match38.743.2−4.5per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKolmanProvaznikBasisWin rate · lifetime360 / 686 vs 153 / 31352.5%48.9%360 / 686 vs 153 / 313Avg sets wonper match2.22.1per matchAvg pointsper match40.640.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ProvaznikKolman 1.83/Provaznik 1.83
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Provaznik · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Provaznik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record9
WSep 16 · 17:30L. Kolman3811114123L. Provaznik389811101
LSep 13 · 05:30L. Kolman33114991L. Provaznik4181111113
WSep 2 · 14:45L. Kolman3411111113L. Provaznik29511851
LAug 31 · 14:00L. Kolman40102111162L. Provaznik47121158113
WJul 25 · 05:15L. Kolman541171112133L. Provaznik541311910112
LJul 1 · 15:45L. Kolman3913411742L. Provaznik531111911113
LApr 6 · 18:30L. Kolman43111161142L. Provaznik48136117113
LFeb 6 · 20:45L. Kolman397911121L. Provaznik3911113143
LJan 31 · 16:45L. Kolman28116831L. Provaznik4071111113
L. Kolman10
LSep 16 · 20:00P. Hala1.8021611143L. Kolman1.9119118121WSep 16 · 19:00V. Honemann2.10561131L. Kolman1.6711114113WSep 16 · 17:30L. Provaznik1.619811101L. Kolman2.2011114123WSep 16 · 12:19L. Smazik1.8398110L. Kolman1.831111133LSep 16 · 11:15L. Kolman1.67126671Z. Vasatko2.10101111113LSep 16 · 10:15L. Kolman1.731011681L. Smazik2.0012711113LSep 16 · 09:15L. Kolman1.50111061192T. Hrstka2.50512117113WSep 13 · 08:35L. Kolman1.8351111113R. Merkl1.83114991LSep 13 · 08:00P. Hala1.83101211113L. Kolman1.831210291LSep 13 · 07:00R. Merkl2.20117118113L. Kolman1.6141191182
L. Provaznik10
WSep 16 · 19:30L. Provaznik1.731111143V. Honemann2.0098120WSep 16 · 18:30L. Provaznik2.251111113P. Hala1.574990LSep 16 · 17:30L. Provaznik1.619811101L. Kolman2.2011114123LSep 13 · 09:03P. Hala1.5311812113L. Provaznik2.389111081WSep 13 · 07:30L. Provaznik1.401115113R. Merkl2.7541380LSep 13 · 06:30L. Provaznik2.009850P. Hala1.731111113WSep 13 · 05:30L. Provaznik1.7381111113L. Kolman2.00114991LSep 2 · 16:19L. Provaznik2.009460P. Semrad1.731111113WSep 2 · 15:15P. Semrad1.8399111392L. Provaznik1.831111711113LSep 2 · 14:45L. Provaznik1.61511851L. Kolman2.2011111113
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