TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13140245
Played Sep 16Finished
Libor Smazik
Home
1.83
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
9118111113––––
Leon Kolman
Away
1.83
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 3
How it is goingLibor Smazik above · Leon Kolman below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 11-13
Point 63 set 3, 11-13
63 points played in total.
H2H Libor Smazik 1–2 Leon Kolman Libor Smazik has won 1 of their 3 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 2h before this match
Smazik beat Kolman 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Kolman)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kolman form (20%) is below what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSmazik 1.83 / Kolman 1.83
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Kolman)+4.0pp
Setka Cup · #13140245
Smazik1.83
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
Kolman1.83
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 3 meetings
HomeSmazik1wins
AwayKolman2wins
1 of 3 to a deciderKolman leads 2–1, and 1 of those 3 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 3 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Smazik2Kolman1n = 3Smazik took 2 of 3
S2Smazik1Kolman2n = 3Kolman took 2 of 3
S3Smazik2Kolman1n = 3Smazik took 2 of 3
S4Smazik1Kolman2n = 3Kolman took 2 of 3
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 3 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 3 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home133%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away133%
1–3Four sets, away133%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 3 meetings
MetricSmazikKolmanS − KBasisWins12−1in 3 meetingsFirst set21+1of 3Avg pointsper match40.341.3−1.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSmazikKolmanBasisWin rate · lifetime204 / 407 vs 357 / 68250.1%52.4%204 / 407 vs 357 / 682Avg sets wonper match2.02.2per matchAvg pointsper match37.840.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KolmanSmazik 1.83/Kolman 1.83
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Kolman · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Kolman won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record3
WSep 16 · 10:15L. Smazik4112711113L. Kolman351011681
LSep 10 · 10:45L. Smazik28113861L. Kolman3961111113
LJul 15 · 11:45L. Smazik52121111992L. Kolman50146811113
L. Smazik10
LSep 16 · 11:45L. Smazik1.50119791T. Hrstka2.5091111113WSep 16 · 10:15L. Kolman1.731011681L. Smazik2.0012711113LSep 16 · 09:45Z. Vasatko1.831115113L. Smazik1.8341380WSep 14 · 12:53M. Svitac1.83911491L. Smazik1.8311811113LSep 14 · 11:45L. Smazik1.8311351152M. Svitac1.83511119113LSep 14 · 10:15Z. Vasatko2.101111113L. Smazik1.677290LSep 14 · 09:45M. Hajek1.801111113L. Smazik1.918870LSep 12 · 12:38P. Semrad1.73111193L. Smazik2.005580WSep 12 · 11:30L. Smazik2.0011612113P. Semrad1.738111091LSep 12 · 10:30L. Smazik1.83125741M. Hajek1.83101111113
L. Kolman10
LSep 16 · 11:15L. Kolman1.67126671Z. Vasatko2.10101111113LSep 16 · 10:15L. Kolman1.731011681L. Smazik2.0012711113LSep 16 · 09:15L. Kolman1.50111061192T. Hrstka2.50512117113WSep 13 · 08:35L. Kolman1.8351111113R. Merkl1.83114991LSep 13 · 08:00P. Hala1.83101211113L. Kolman1.831210291LSep 13 · 07:00R. Merkl2.20117118113L. Kolman1.6141191182LSep 13 · 05:30L. Provaznik1.7381111113L. Kolman2.00114991WSep 10 · 12:48L. Kolman2.2011117113M. Svitac1.61761161WSep 10 · 11:45M. Hajek1.831411881L. Kolman1.8316611113WSep 10 · 10:45L. Smazik1.83113861L. Kolman1.8361111113
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L. Kolman
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