TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13117032
Played Sep 12Finished
Mikhail Taranko
Home
2.63
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
5111141513119––
Tomas Kanka
Away
1.44
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:34 and never touched — 66.1% is still 66.1%
Graded at full timeTomas Kanka to win
66.1%
66.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingMikhail Taranko above · Tomas Kanka below
Set 1 · 5-11
Set 2 · 11-4
Set 3 · 15-13
Set 4 · 11-9
Point 79 set 4, 11-9 — our read held Tomas Kanka at 66.1%
79 points played in total.
H2H Mikhail Taranko 6–11 Tomas Kanka Mikhail Taranko has won 6 of their 17 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 21:34What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Kanka
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
6-11 in 17
Kanka
Wrong
gap of 5 in 17, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Taranko 1491 vs Kanka 1580
Kanka
Wrong
both rated, 90 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Taranko 20% vs Kanka 20%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Taranko 50% vs Kanka 50%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Taranko -2 · Kanka +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 66% — Clear lean (leans Kanka)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kanka form (20%) is below what odds imply (69%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsTaranko 2.63 / Kanka 1.44
Signal prob.34% / 66%
Edge (Kanka)+1.6pp
Setka Cup · #13117032
Taranko2.63
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog46% won 22 of 48
Down 0–1, comes back37% 11 of 30
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 14
Kanka1.44
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite58% won 46 of 79
Up 2–0, closes it85% 17 of 20
Up 1–0, closes it78% 31 of 40
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeTaranko1wins
AwayKanka9wins
2 of 10 to a deciderKanka leads 9–1, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeTaranko0%0 of 3
AwayKanka85.7%6 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Taranko3Kanka7n = 10Kanka took 7 of 10
S2Taranko3Kanka7n = 10Kanka took 7 of 10
S3Taranko2Kanka8n = 10Kanka took 8 of 10
S4Taranko1Kanka6n = 7Kanka took 6 of 7
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away550%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricTarankoKankaT − KBasisWins19−8in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match30.240.4−10.2per matchSweeps03−33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricTarankoKankaBasisWin rate · lifetime73 / 152 vs 183 / 37848%48.4%73 / 152 vs 183 / 378Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match39.738.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KankaTaranko 2.63/Kanka 1.44
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
66.1%
Kanka · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Taranko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LJun 27 · 08:14M. Taranko—3690T. Kanka—1111113
LJun 27 · 06:45M. Taranko—115561T. Kanka—81111113
WJun 20 · 08:14M. Taranko—8121012113T. Kanka—1110121092
LJun 20 · 07:15M. Taranko—9750T. Kanka—1111113
LApr 11 · 06:15M. Taranko—511871T. Kanka—11611113
LMar 22 · 06:15M. Taranko—114671T. Kanka—91111113
LJan 31 · 09:19M. Taranko—5620T. Kanka—1111113
LJan 31 · 07:15M. Taranko—4611111T. Kanka—11118133
LNov 9 · 06:15M. Taranko—1184121T. Kanka—51111143
LSep 6 · 05:15M. Taranko—101111662T. Kanka—126711113
M. Taranko10
LSep 6 · 08:29L. Stoces1.221112113M. Taranko4.0051070LSep 6 · 07:15M. Taranko1.917860T. Hanke1.801111113WSep 6 · 06:15M. Taranko2.504111410143L. Stoces1.501191212122LSep 6 · 05:15M. Taranko2.104960D. Brichacek1.671111113LAug 29 · 08:23L. Hendrych2.101611911113M. Taranko1.67146111392WAug 29 · 07:15M. Taranko1.80121299113L. Hendrych1.911010111162WAug 29 · 06:15M. Taranko1.53311114113F. Kubos2.3811771172WAug 29 · 05:15M. Taranko2.101191211123T. Bertho1.67911146102WAug 22 · 08:39J. Snr2.63511991M. Taranko1.4411711113LAug 22 · 07:15M. Taranko1.361111119142J. Snr3.00613811163
T. Kanka10
WSep 8 · 12:14L. Kolman1.5051080T. Kanka2.501112113LSep 8 · 11:15T. Kanka1.911312491M. Svitac1.80111411113LSep 8 · 10:15T. Kanka2.38116651Z. Vasatko1.5361111113LSep 8 · 09:15T. Kanka2.50491111102L. Kolman1.50111175123LAug 30 · 08:58L. Kolman1.501111512113T. Kanka2.50913111092WAug 30 · 07:30T. Kanka1.80711119113A. Pavlik1.9111961192WAug 30 · 06:30T. Kanka1.731111133R. Merkl2.0086110WAug 30 · 05:30T. Kanka2.63111166113L. Kolman1.4496111152LAug 22 · 09:04L. Kolman1.531111113T. Kanka2.3879100WAug 22 · 07:30P. Orlowski1.579740T. Kanka2.251111113
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