TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13155015
Played Sep 19Finished
Adam Pavlik
Home
2.38
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 3
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
711116118119––
Matej Svitac
Away
1.53
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:22 and never touched — 61.2% is still 61.2%
Graded at full timeMatej Svitac to win
61.2%
61.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingAdam Pavlik above · Matej Svitac below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 11-9
Point 74 set 4, 11-9 — our read held Matej Svitac at 61.2%
74 points played in total.
H2H Adam Pavlik 3–4 Matej Svitac Adam Pavlik has won 3 of their 7 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 18:22What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Svitac
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-4 in 7
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Pavlik 1559 vs Svitac 1622
Svitac
Wrong
both rated, 62 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Pavlik 40% vs Svitac 60%
Svitac
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Pavlik 30% vs Svitac 50%
Svitac
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Pavlik -3 · Svitac -1
Pavlik
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 61% — Slight lean (leans Svitac)
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPavlik 2.38 / Svitac 1.53
Signal prob.39% / 61%
Edge (Svitac)+0.4pp
Setka Cup · #13155015
Pavlik2.38
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 8 days ago (Sep 11) · back after a break
Lost last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog51% won 34 of 67
Down 0–1, comes back26% 9 of 35
Down 0–2, comes back14% 3 of 21
Svitac1.53
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 1 day ago (Sep 18)
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite56% won 63 of 113
Up 2–0, closes it91% 31 of 34
Up 1–0, closes it77% 47 of 61
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 7 meetings
HomePavlik3wins
AwaySvitac4wins
2 of 7 to a deciderSvitac leads 4–3, and 2 of those 7 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePavlikn = 2, below the 3 needed
AwaySvitac60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 7 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Pavlik2Svitac5n = 7Svitac took 5 of 7
S2Pavlik4Svitac3n = 7Pavlik took 4 of 7
S3Pavlik3Svitac4n = 7Svitac took 4 of 7
S4Pavlik3Svitac2n = 5Pavlik took 3 of 5
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 7 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 7 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home114%
3–1Four sets, home114%
3–2Decider, home114%
2–3Decider, away114%
1–3Four sets, away229%
0–3Straight, away114%
These 7 meetings
MetricPavlikSvitacP − SBasisWins34−1in 7 meetingsFirst set25−3of 7Avg pointsper match36.137.6−1.5per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPavlikSvitacBasisWin rate · lifetime168 / 328 vs 218 / 39951.2%54.6%168 / 328 vs 218 / 399Avg sets wonper match2.12.2per matchAvg pointsper match38.638.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SvitacPavlik 2.38/Svitac 1.53
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
61.2%
Svitac · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Pavlik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record7
LSep 6 · 20:23A. Pavlik2671090M. Svitac341112113
LSep 6 · 18:15A. Pavlik25113471M. Svitac4291111113
LAug 15 · 10:15A. Pavlik31511961M. Svitac4011711113
WJul 19 · 09:15A. Pavlik341111123M. Svitac1624100
WDec 23 · 16:15A. Pavlik48961111113M. Svitac4211118482
WJul 16 · 18:45A. Pavlik43101111113M. Svitac38129891
LJun 15 · 19:00A. Pavlik4671171292M. Svitac511181110113
A. Pavlik10
LSep 19 · 18:30A. Pavlik2.1091112472L. Kolman1.671191011113LSep 11 · 16:34V. Lopata1.80115119113A. Pavlik1.9171191192LSep 11 · 15:30A. Pavlik2.00104100O. Horak1.731211123LSep 11 · 14:30A. Pavlik1.83137110P. Hala1.831511133WSep 11 · 13:30A. Pavlik2.201211113V. Lopata1.6110750WSep 7 · 20:29S. Kalensky2.2091211101A. Pavlik1.6111149123WSep 7 · 19:30P. Orlowski1.8085110A. Pavlik1.911111133LSep 7 · 19:00A. Pavlik1.80118691D. Brichacek1.9171111113LSep 7 · 18:00A. Pavlik1.531041481S. Kalensky2.38121112113LSep 6 · 20:23M. Svitac1.731112113A. Pavlik2.0071090
M. Svitac10
LSep 19 · 19:00T. Hucko2.00111011113M. Svitac1.73512951LSep 18 · 12:50M. Svitac1.911112211132P. Oplt1.80914117153WSep 18 · 11:45P. Oplt1.61811991M. Svitac2.2011611113WSep 18 · 10:45J. Simek2.10761171M. Svitac1.6711115113WSep 18 · 09:15T. Hucko1.91981171M. Svitac1.8011118113LSep 14 · 12:53M. Svitac1.83911491L. Smazik1.8311811113WSep 14 · 11:45L. Smazik1.8311351152M. Svitac1.83511119113LSep 14 · 10:45M. Hajek1.6111149113M. Svitac2.205121141LSep 14 · 09:15Z. Vasatko1.731111113M. Svitac2.007650WSep 6 · 20:23M. Svitac1.731112113A. Pavlik2.0071090
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