TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13148586
Played Sep 18Finished
Jakub Simek
Home
2.10
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 2
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
711611115711––
Matej Svitac
Away
1.67
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:23 and never touched — 56.2% is still 56.2%
Graded at full timeMatej Svitac to win
56.2%
56.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingJakub Simek above · Matej Svitac below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 11-5
Set 4 · 7-11
Point 69 set 4, 7-11 — our read held Matej Svitac at 56.2%
69 points played in total.
H2H Jakub Simek 4–4 Matej Svitac Dead even across their 8 meetings.
Last 8 · 4–4Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:23What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Svitac
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
4-4 in 8
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Simek 1571 vs Svitac 1649
Svitac
Correct
both rated, 77 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Simek 80% vs Svitac 40%
Simek
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Simek 80% vs Svitac 60%
Simek
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Simek +2 · Svitac +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 56% — Slight lean (leans Svitac)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Svitac form (40%) is below what odds imply (60%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSimek 2.10 / Svitac 1.67
Signal prob.44% / 56%
Edge (Svitac)+0.4pp
Setka Cup · #13148586
Simek2.10
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog33% won 6 of 18
Down 0–1, comes back31% 4 of 13
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 6
Svitac1.67
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite55% won 61 of 111
Up 2–0, closes it91% 29 of 32
Up 1–0, closes it76% 45 of 59
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 8 meetings
HomeSimek4wins
AwaySvitac4wins
4 of 8 to a deciderLevel at 4–4, and 4 of those 8 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSimek100%3 of 3
AwaySvitac80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 8 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Simek3Svitac5n = 8Svitac took 5 of 8
S2Simek3Svitac5n = 8Svitac took 5 of 8
S3Simek4Svitac4n = 8split evenly
S4Simek3Svitac3n = 6split evenly
S5Simek3Svitac1n = 4Simek took 3 of 4
How those 8 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 8 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home113%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home338%
2–3Decider, away113%
1–3Four sets, away225%
0–3Straight, away113%
These 8 meetings
MetricSimekSvitacSimek − SvitacBasisWins440in 8 meetingsFirst set35−2of 8Avg pointsper match39.237.4+1.8per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSimekSvitacBasisWin rate · lifetime80 / 158 vs 216 / 39650.6%54.6%80 / 158 vs 216 / 396Avg sets wonper match2.02.2per matchAvg pointsper match39.238.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SvitacSimek 2.10/Svitac 1.67
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
56.2%
Svitac · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Svitac won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record8
LAug 13 · 10:15J. Simek33611791M. Svitac3411111113
WAug 5 · 10:00J. Simek521111117123M. Svitac45513611102
LJul 24 · 09:45J. Simek36691381M. Svitac44111111113
WOct 10 · 12:40J. Simek341211113M. Svitac1610510
LOct 10 · 11:30J. Simek196580M. Svitac331111113
LSep 22 · 11:45J. Simek4889111192M. Svitac44111165113
WJun 17 · 09:45J. Simek46611711113M. Svitac3911811272
WFeb 21 · 10:45J. Simek46134711113M. Svitac44111111652
J. Simek10
LSep 18 · 11:15T. Hucko1.67961111113J. Simek2.1011117362WSep 18 · 09:45J. Simek2.25671112113P. Oplt1.57111141082WSep 8 · 20:43J. Simek1.539171110143P. Maly2.381115412122LSep 8 · 19:45J. Simek1.50711851J. Juppa2.5011711113WSep 8 · 18:15P. Maly2.251211512102J. Simek1.571431110123WSep 8 · 17:45R. Merkl2.38811571J. Simek1.5311811113WSep 4 · 16:59J. Simek1.73111172O. Horak2.0078111LSep 4 · 15:45J. Simek1.8312511582M. Bruk1.831011511113WSep 4 · 14:15P. Provaznik2.0011761172J. Simek1.73711117113WSep 4 · 13:45O. Horak1.83971191J. Simek1.8311119113
M. Svitac10
WSep 18 · 09:15T. Hucko1.91981171M. Svitac1.8011118113LSep 14 · 12:53M. Svitac1.83911491L. Smazik1.8311811113WSep 14 · 11:45L. Smazik1.8311351152M. Svitac1.83511119113LSep 14 · 10:45M. Hajek1.6111149113M. Svitac2.205121141LSep 14 · 09:15Z. Vasatko1.731111113M. Svitac2.007650LSep 10 · 12:48L. Kolman2.2011117113M. Svitac1.61761161WSep 10 · 11:15M. Svitac2.1013119113L. Smazik1.671181181WSep 10 · 10:15M. Svitac2.25811911113M. Hajek1.5711911832WSep 10 · 09:15M. Svitac1.731111113L. Kolman2.009540WSep 8 · 12:43Z. Vasatko1.7395121162M. Svitac2.001111108113
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