TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13153542
Played Sep 18Finished
Matej Svitac
Home
1.91
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 3
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
11912142111171315
Pavel Oplt
Away
1.80
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:37 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timePavel Oplt to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMatej Svitac above · Pavel Oplt below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 12-14
Set 3 · 2-11
Set 4 · 11-7
Set 5 · 13-15
Point 105 set 5, 13-15 — our read held Pavel Oplt at 54.0%
105 points played in total.
H2H Matej Svitac 2–2 Pavel Oplt Dead even across their 4 meetings.
Last 4 · 2–2Head to head
Same-day rematch · 1h before this match
Svitac beat Oplt 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 12:37What took a side1 for · 4 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Oplt
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-2 in 4
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Svitac 1668 vs Oplt 1584
Svitac
Wrong
both rated, 83 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Svitac 80% vs Oplt 20%
Svitac
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Svitac 60% vs Oplt 40%
Svitac
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Svitac +3 · Oplt -1
Svitac
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Oplt)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Oplt form (20%) is below what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSvitac 1.91 / Oplt 1.80
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Oplt)+2.5pp
Setka Cup · #13153542
Svitac1.91
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog43% won 26 of 60
Down 0–1, comes back27% 8 of 30
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 16
Oplt1.80
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite54% won 27 of 50
Up 2–0, closes it91% 10 of 11
Up 1–0, closes it73% 16 of 22
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 4 meetings
HomeSvitac2wins
AwayOplt2wins
1 of 4 to a deciderLevel at 2–2, and 1 of those 4 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSvitac66.7%2 of 3
AwayOpltn = 1, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 4 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Svitac3Oplt1n = 4Svitac took 3 of 4
S2Svitac0Oplt4n = 4Oplt took 4 of 4
S3Svitac3Oplt1n = 4Svitac took 3 of 4
S4Svitac3Oplt1n = 4Svitac took 3 of 4
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 4 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 4 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home250%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away125%
1–3Four sets, away125%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 4 meetings
MetricSvitacOpltS − OBasisWins220in 4 meetingsFirst set31+2of 4Avg pointsper match42.039.0+3.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSvitacOpltBasisWin rate · lifetime218 / 398 vs 106 / 20154.8%52.7%218 / 398 vs 106 / 201Avg sets wonper match2.22.2per matchAvg pointsper match38.939.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
OpltSvitac 1.91/Oplt 1.80
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Oplt · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Oplt won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record4
WSep 18 · 11:45M. Svitac3911611113P. Oplt37811991
LApr 24 · 12:14M. Svitac351141191P. Oplt4381113113
LApr 24 · 10:15M. Svitac511210111172P. Oplt44141234113
WMar 20 · 10:15M. Svitac43111011113P. Oplt32612771
M. Svitac10
WSep 18 · 11:45P. Oplt1.61811991M. Svitac2.2011611113WSep 18 · 10:45J. Simek2.10761171M. Svitac1.6711115113WSep 18 · 09:15T. Hucko1.91981171M. Svitac1.8011118113LSep 14 · 12:53M. Svitac1.83911491L. Smazik1.8311811113WSep 14 · 11:45L. Smazik1.8311351152M. Svitac1.83511119113LSep 14 · 10:45M. Hajek1.6111149113M. Svitac2.205121141LSep 14 · 09:15Z. Vasatko1.731111113M. Svitac2.007650LSep 10 · 12:48L. Kolman2.2011117113M. Svitac1.61761161WSep 10 · 11:15M. Svitac2.1013119113L. Smazik1.671181181WSep 10 · 10:15M. Svitac2.25811911113M. Hajek1.5711911832
P. Oplt10
LSep 18 · 11:45P. Oplt1.61811991M. Svitac2.2011611113WSep 18 · 10:15T. Hucko2.20119771P. Oplt1.6171111113LSep 18 · 09:45J. Simek2.25671112113P. Oplt1.57111141082LSep 17 · 20:17M. Hajek1.53118711113P. Oplt2.3871111892LSep 17 · 19:15D. Brichacek1.911111113P. Oplt1.805870WSep 17 · 18:45P. Oplt1.671114611113P. Orlowski2.1091611872LSep 17 · 17:45P. Oplt1.5310770M. Hajek2.381211113WSep 11 · 12:13M. Hajek2.25117691P. Oplt1.5761111113LSep 11 · 11:15P. Oplt1.911081161P. Semrad1.8012116113WSep 11 · 10:15P. Oplt1.6111511113M. Hajek2.20311451
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