TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Vladislav Reska vs Peter Chvojka 3-2 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Sep 23Finished
Vladislav Reska
Home
1.62
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
711118611116119
Peter Chvojka
Away
2.20
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 08:20 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timePeter Chvojka to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingVladislav Reska above · Peter Chvojka below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 6-11
Set 4 · 11-6
Set 5 · 11-9
Point 91 set 5, 11-9 — our read held Peter Chvojka at 54.0%
91 points played in total.
H2H Vladislav Reska 18–10 Peter Chvojka Peter Chvojka has won 10 of their 28 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 08:20What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Reska
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
18-10 in 28
Reska
Correct
gap of 8 in 28, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Reska 1454 vs Chvojka 1410
Reska
Correct
both rated, 44 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Reska 40% vs Chvojka 60%
Chvojka
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Reska 40% vs Chvojka 70%
Chvojka
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Reska -1 · Chvojka -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 58% — Slight lean (leans Reska) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Chvojka form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (45%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsReska 1.61 / Chvojka 2.20
Signal prob.58% / 42%
Edge (Reska)+0.4pp
TT Cup · #13182395
Reska1.61
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 3 days ago (Sep 20)
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite54% won 69 of 127
Up 2–0, closes it97% 32 of 33
Up 1–0, closes it79% 51 of 65
Chvojka2.20
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 3 days ago (Sep 20)
Lost last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog39% won 42 of 107
Down 0–1, comes back20% 11 of 56
Down 0–2, comes back6% 2 of 32
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeReska5wins
AwayChvojka5wins
1 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeReska80%4 of 5
AwayChvojka80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Reska5Chvojka5n = 10split evenly
S2Reska5Chvojka5n = 10split evenly
S3Reska6Chvojka4n = 10Reska took 6 of 10
S4Reska2Chvojka2n = 4split evenly
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricReskaChvojkaR − CBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match32.033.2−1.2per matchSweeps3303–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricReskaChvojkaBasisWin rate · lifetime254 / 503 vs 147 / 31650.5%46.5%254 / 503 vs 147 / 316Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.437.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ReskaReska 1.61/Chvojka 2.20
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
58.1%
Reska · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Reska won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WJul 2 · 20:15V. Reska331111113P. Chvojka237970
LJun 28 · 12:40V. Reska441110111112P. Chvojka49612713113
LJun 28 · 12:15V. Reska197660P. Chvojka331111113
WJun 2 · 17:45V. Reska3961111113P. Chvojka32119481
WMay 25 · 17:45V. Reska4111118113P. Chvojka34771191
WMay 23 · 20:15V. Reska351111133P. Chvojka2476110
LApr 26 · 13:10V. Reska2577110P. Chvojka351111133
LApr 26 · 11:40V. Reska30911281P. Chvojka43111110113
WApr 14 · 20:45V. Reska341112113P. Chvojka2681080
LApr 14 · 20:15V. Reska203980P. Chvojka331111113
V. Reska10
LSep 23 · 18:45V. Reska1.8012711792K. Zeman1.911011711113LSep 20 · 17:15O. Kus2.2071111113V. Reska1.61118981WSep 20 · 15:40A. Drozd2.101011771V. Reska1.6712511113WSep 20 · 15:10P. Jokiel2.381011721V. Reska1.5312511113LSep 20 · 14:10V. Reska1.578611101O. Kus2.2511118123LSep 18 · 20:38V. Reska1.5777100J. Przybyla2.251111123WSep 18 · 20:15J. Przybyla2.0011460V. Reska1.731311113LSep 18 · 19:15V. Reska2.00118351T. Molin1.7371111113LSep 18 · 17:45D. Branny1.731311123V. Reska2.00118100LSep 17 · 21:20D. Branny1.8391111113V. Reska1.83117861
P. Chvojka10
LSep 20 · 13:09F. Mandrysz2.1091111123P. Chvojka1.671149101LSep 20 · 11:45P. Chvojka1.5389111142F. Mandrysz2.38111116113WSep 20 · 10:45P. Chvojka1.281111113M. Sobota3.504550WSep 20 · 09:45P. Chvojka1.671111113L. Jr2.106580WSep 19 · 17:04I. Jemelka1.6145111192P. Chvojka2.20111197113WSep 19 · 16:10P. Sturma3.0046100P. Chvojka1.361111123WSep 19 · 15:10P. Chvojka1.91971111113J. Jnr1.8011117852LSep 19 · 13:40I. Jemelka1.731112123P. Chvojka2.00310100WSep 18 · 17:10P. Chvojka1.6111611133P. Sturma2.046112111WSep 18 · 15:40P. Chvojka2.251111113J. Jnr1.578670
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