TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Sep 20Finished
Filip Mandrysz
Home
2.10
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
9111141191210––
Peter Chvojka
Away
1.67
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
8–2Last 10Lost last 1
How it is goingFilip Mandrysz above · Peter Chvojka below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 11-4
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 12-10
Point 77 set 4, 12-10
77 points played in total.
H2H Filip Mandrysz 1–2 Peter Chvojka Filip Mandrysz has won 1 of their 3 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 1h before this match
Mandrysz beat Chvojka 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
Signal confidence: 57% — Slight lean (leans Chvojka)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Chvojka form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (60%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMandrysz 2.10 / Chvojka 1.67
Signal prob.43% / 57%
Edge (Chvojka)+0.8pp
TT Cup · #13164409
Mandrysz2.10
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog45% won 57 of 128
Down 0–1, comes back32% 26 of 81
Down 0–2, comes back5% 2 of 42
Chvojka1.67
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite53% won 40 of 76
Up 2–0, closes it96% 25 of 26
Up 1–0, closes it76% 35 of 46
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 3 meetings
HomeMandrysz1wins
AwayChvojka2wins
1 of 3 to a deciderChvojka leads 2–1, and 1 of those 3 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 3 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Mandrysz1Chvojka2n = 3Chvojka took 2 of 3
S2Mandrysz1Chvojka2n = 3Chvojka took 2 of 3
S3Mandrysz0Chvojka3n = 3Chvojka took 3 of 3
S4
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 3 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 3 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home133%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away267%
These 3 meetings
MetricMandryszChvojkaM − CBasisWins12−1in 3 meetingsFirst set12−1of 3Avg pointsper match25.336.3−11.0per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMandryszChvojkaBasisWin rate · lifetime225 / 448 vs 147 / 31550.2%46.7%225 / 448 vs 147 / 315Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.937.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ChvojkaMandrysz 2.10/Chvojka 1.67
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
56.6%
Chvojka · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Mandrysz won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record3
WSep 20 · 11:45F. Mandrysz40111116113P. Chvojka4389111142
LApr 6 · 20:40F. Mandrysz168350P. Chvojka331111113
LApr 6 · 19:15F. Mandrysz209470P. Chvojka331111113
F. Mandrysz10
WSep 20 · 11:45P. Chvojka1.5389111142F. Mandrysz2.38111116113WSep 20 · 11:15L. Jr2.001111111152F. Mandrysz1.73139139113LSep 20 · 10:15F. Mandrysz2.0011811482M. Sobota1.73611711113LSep 20 · 08:45F. Mandrysz1.91814981J. Matus1.80111211113LSep 20 · 08:15F. Mandrysz1.735880M. Sobota2.001111113LSep 20 · 06:45J. Sindler1.6111116123F. Mandrysz2.209811101WSep 20 · 06:15J. Matus1.731611911142F. Mandrysz2.001413115163WSep 19 · 12:40F. Mandrysz2.00611139113P. Sturma1.73115111192WSep 19 · 12:10P. Sturma1.91119691F. Mandrysz1.8091111113LSep 19 · 11:10F. Mandrysz2.6381481262J. Jnr1.4411121110113
P. Chvojka10
LSep 20 · 11:45P. Chvojka1.5389111142F. Mandrysz2.38111116113WSep 20 · 10:45P. Chvojka1.281111113M. Sobota3.504550WSep 20 · 09:45P. Chvojka1.671111113L. Jr2.106580WSep 19 · 17:04I. Jemelka1.6145111192P. Chvojka2.20111197113WSep 19 · 16:10P. Sturma3.0046100P. Chvojka1.361111123WSep 19 · 15:10P. Chvojka1.91971111113J. Jnr1.8011117852LSep 19 · 13:40I. Jemelka1.731112123P. Chvojka2.00310100WSep 18 · 17:10P. Chvojka1.6111611133P. Sturma2.046112111WSep 18 · 15:40P. Chvojka2.251111113J. Jnr1.578670WSep 18 · 14:40P. Chvojka1.571111113P. Sturma2.258620
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