TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Sep 20Finished
Peter Chvojka
Home
1.53
At publish
Won last 5Form at publish
9–1Last 10Won last 5
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
811911111116411
Filip Mandrysz
Away
2.38
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:36 and never touched — 60.3% is still 60.3%
Graded at full timePeter Chvojka to win
60.3%
60.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingPeter Chvojka above · Filip Mandrysz below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 11-1
Set 4 · 11-6
Set 5 · 4-11
Point 83 set 5, 4-11 — our read held Peter Chvojka at 60.3%
83 points played in total.
H2H Peter Chvojka 2–1 Filip Mandrysz Filip Mandrysz has won 1 of their 3 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:36What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Chvojka
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-1 in 3
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Chvojka 1410 vs Mandrysz 1332
Chvojka
Wrong
both rated, 78 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Chvojka 100% vs Mandrysz 20%
Chvojka
Wrong
80pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Chvojka 90% vs Mandrysz 40%
Chvojka
Wrong
50pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Chvojka +5 · Mandrysz +1
Chvojka
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 64% — Clear lean (leans Chvojka) · live re-read · sealed at 60% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Mandrysz form (20%) is below what odds imply (42%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsChvojka 1.53 / Mandrysz 2.38
Signal prob.64% / 36%
Edge (Chvojka)+2.8pp
TT Cup · #13161268
Chvojka1.53
90%won 9 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 5
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite53% won 40 of 76
Up 2–0, closes it96% 25 of 26
Up 1–0, closes it76% 35 of 46
Mandrysz2.38
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog45% won 57 of 128
Down 0–1, comes back32% 26 of 81
Down 0–2, comes back5% 2 of 42
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 3 meetings
HomeChvojka2wins
AwayMandrysz1wins
1 of 3 to a deciderChvojka leads 2–1, and 1 of those 3 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 3 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Chvojka2Mandrysz1n = 3Chvojka took 2 of 3
S2Chvojka2Mandrysz1n = 3Chvojka took 2 of 3
S3Chvojka3Mandrysz0n = 3Chvojka took 3 of 3
S4
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 3 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 3 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home267%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away133%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 3 meetings
MetricChvojkaMandryszC − MBasisWins21+1in 3 meetingsFirst set21+1of 3Avg pointsper match36.325.3+11.0per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricChvojkaMandryszBasisWin rate · lifetime147 / 315 vs 225 / 44846.7%50.2%147 / 315 vs 225 / 448Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.537.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ChvojkaChvojka 1.53/Mandrysz 2.38
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
63.6%
Chvojka · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Mandrysz won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record3
LSep 20 · 11:45P. Chvojka4389111142F. Mandrysz40111116113
WApr 6 · 20:40P. Chvojka331111113F. Mandrysz168350
WApr 6 · 19:15P. Chvojka331111113F. Mandrysz209470
P. Chvojka10
WSep 20 · 10:45P. Chvojka1.281111113M. Sobota3.504550WSep 20 · 09:45P. Chvojka1.671111113L. Jr2.106580WSep 19 · 17:04I. Jemelka1.6145111192P. Chvojka2.20111197113WSep 19 · 16:10P. Sturma3.0046100P. Chvojka1.361111123WSep 19 · 15:10P. Chvojka1.91971111113J. Jnr1.8011117852LSep 19 · 13:40I. Jemelka1.731112123P. Chvojka2.00310100WSep 18 · 17:10P. Chvojka1.6111611133P. Sturma2.046112111WSep 18 · 15:40P. Chvojka2.251111113J. Jnr1.578670WSep 18 · 14:40P. Chvojka1.571111113P. Sturma2.258620WSep 18 · 13:40P. Chvojka1.831111113D. Muller1.836470
F. Mandrysz10
WSep 20 · 11:15L. Jr2.001111111152F. Mandrysz1.73139139113LSep 20 · 10:15F. Mandrysz2.0011811482M. Sobota1.73611711113LSep 20 · 08:45F. Mandrysz1.91814981J. Matus1.80111211113LSep 20 · 08:15F. Mandrysz1.735880M. Sobota2.001111113LSep 20 · 06:45J. Sindler1.6111116123F. Mandrysz2.209811101WSep 20 · 06:15J. Matus1.731611911142F. Mandrysz2.001413115163WSep 19 · 12:40F. Mandrysz2.00611139113P. Sturma1.73115111192WSep 19 · 12:10P. Sturma1.91119691F. Mandrysz1.8091111113LSep 19 · 11:10F. Mandrysz2.6381481262J. Jnr1.4411121110113LSep 19 · 09:40J. Sindler1.61111211113F. Mandrysz2.20614581
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