TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Sep 20Finished
Peter Chvojka
Home
1.67
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
9–1Last 10Won last 3
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
116115118––––
Lukas Krupnik Jr
Away
2.10
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:41 and never touched — 56.0% is still 56.0%
Graded at full timePeter Chvojka to win
56.0%
56.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingPeter Chvojka above · Lukas Krupnik Jr below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 11-5
Set 3 · 11-8
Point 52 set 3, 11-8 — our read held Peter Chvojka at 56.0%
52 points played in total.
H2H Peter Chvojka 3–3 Lukas Krupnik Jr Dead even across their 6 meetings.
Last 6 · 3–3Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:41What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Chvojka
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-3 in 6
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Chvojka 1415 vs Jr 1396
Chvojka
Correct
both rated, 19 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Chvojka 80% vs Jr 40%
Chvojka
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Chvojka 90% vs Jr 60%
Chvojka
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Chvojka +3 · Jr +1
Chvojka
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 57% — Slight lean (leans Chvojka) · live re-read · sealed at 56% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Chvojka form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (60%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsChvojka 1.67 / Jr 2.10
Signal prob.57% / 43%
Edge (Chvojka)+0.8pp
TT Cup · #13161279
Chvojka1.67
90%won 9 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 3
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite53% won 40 of 76
Up 2–0, closes it96% 25 of 26
Up 1–0, closes it76% 35 of 46
Jr2.10
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 4 days ago (Sep 16)
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog50% won 79 of 157
Down 0–1, comes back36% 25 of 69
Down 0–2, comes back13% 4 of 32
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 6 meetings
HomeChvojka3wins
AwayJr3wins
1 of 6 to a deciderLevel at 3–3, and 1 of those 6 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeChvojka75%3 of 4
AwayJrn = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 6 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Chvojka4Jr2n = 6Chvojka took 4 of 6
S2Chvojka3Jr3n = 6split evenly
S3Chvojka2Jr4n = 6Jr took 4 of 6
S4Chvojka2Jr3n = 5Jr took 3 of 5
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 6 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 6 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home117%
3–1Four sets, home117%
3–2Decider, home117%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away350%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 6 meetings
MetricChvojkaJrC − JBasisWins330in 6 meetingsFirst set42+2of 6Avg pointsper match41.738.5+3.2per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricChvojkaJrBasisWin rate · lifetime145 / 312 vs 241 / 45546.5%53%145 / 312 vs 241 / 455Avg sets wonper match1.92.2per matchAvg pointsper match37.540.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ChvojkaChvojka 1.67/Jr 2.10
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
56.6%
Chvojka · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Chvojka won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record6
LSep 14 · 09:40P. Chvojka4211912101L. Jr4471114123
LSep 7 · 11:15P. Chvojka36812881L. Jr43111011113
WAug 28 · 16:10P. Chvojka541181211123L. Jr42411143102
LAug 27 · 12:10P. Chvojka429131371L. Jr48111115113
WAug 11 · 17:15P. Chvojka351111133L. Jr2568110
WAug 11 · 15:45P. Chvojka4111811113L. Jr29311961
P. Chvojka10
WSep 20 · 10:45P. Chvojka1.281111113M. Sobota3.504550WSep 19 · 17:04I. Jemelka1.6145111192P. Chvojka2.20111197113WSep 19 · 16:10P. Sturma3.0046100P. Chvojka1.361111123WSep 19 · 15:10P. Chvojka1.91971111113J. Jnr1.8011117852LSep 19 · 13:40I. Jemelka1.731112123P. Chvojka2.00310100WSep 18 · 17:10P. Chvojka1.6111611133P. Sturma2.046112111WSep 18 · 15:40P. Chvojka2.251111113J. Jnr1.578670WSep 18 · 14:40P. Chvojka1.571111113P. Sturma2.258620WSep 18 · 13:40P. Chvojka1.831111113D. Muller1.836470WSep 14 · 12:34P. Chvojka1.7312124113P. Sturma2.0010101191
L. Jr10
WSep 16 · 12:48L. Jr1.531111113L. Zustina2.388670LSep 16 · 12:15J. Sindler1.53111248113L. Jr2.38610111172WSep 16 · 11:15L. Jr1.73111111113L. Zustina2.00139571LSep 16 · 09:45M. Lorenc1.44111111113L. Jr2.63135881LSep 14 · 13:04J. Sindler1.5013119113L. Jr2.501141181LSep 14 · 11:40L. Jr2.25651161J. Sindler1.5711119113WSep 14 · 10:40L. Jr1.67312411113P. Sturma2.10111011692WSep 14 · 09:40L. Jr2.0071114123P. Chvojka1.7311912101WSep 13 · 21:23J. Oleksik1.859112101L. Jr1.8511911123WSep 13 · 19:45M. Dolezal1.53105100L. Jr2.381211123
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