TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13158391
Played Sep 19Finished
Peter Chvojka
Home
1.91
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
911711117118115
Jaroslav Neuwirth Jnr
Away
1.80
At publish
Won last 4Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 08:53 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timePeter Chvojka to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingPeter Chvojka above · Jaroslav Neuwirth Jnr below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 11-8
Set 5 · 11-5
Point 91 set 5, 11-5 — our read held Peter Chvojka at 54.0%
91 points played in total.
H2H Peter Chvojka 3–4 Jaroslav Neuwirth Jnr Peter Chvojka has won 3 of their 7 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 08:53What took a side1 for · 3 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Jnr
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-4 in 7
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Chvojka 1371 vs Jnr 1404
Jnr
Wrong
both rated, 33 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Chvojka 80% vs Jnr 80%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Chvojka 70% vs Jnr 50%
Chvojka
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Chvojka -1 · Jnr +4
Jnr
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Jnr) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Jnr form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsChvojka 1.91 / Jnr 1.80
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Jnr)+2.5pp
TT Cup · #13158391
Chvojka1.91
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As underdog39% won 40 of 104
Down 0–1, comes back19% 10 of 54
Down 0–2, comes back3% 1 of 30
Jnr1.80
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 4
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite54% won 44 of 82
Up 2–0, closes it85% 22 of 26
Up 1–0, closes it67% 29 of 43
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 7 meetings
HomeChvojka3wins
AwayJnr4wins
2 of 7 to a deciderJnr leads 4–3, and 2 of those 7 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeChvojka75%3 of 4
AwayJnr100%3 of 3
Set by set, in these 7 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Chvojka4Jnr3n = 7Chvojka took 4 of 7
S2Chvojka4Jnr3n = 7Chvojka took 4 of 7
S3Chvojka4Jnr3n = 7Chvojka took 4 of 7
S4
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 7 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 7 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home343%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away229%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away229%
These 7 meetings
MetricChvojkaJnrC − JBasisWins34−1in 7 meetingsFirst set43+1of 7Avg pointsper match33.433.3+0.1per matchSweeps32+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricChvojkaJnrBasisWin rate · lifetime142 / 309 vs 142 / 26946%52.8%142 / 309 vs 142 / 269Avg sets wonper match1.92.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.439.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
JnrChvojka 1.91/Jnr 1.80
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Jnr · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Chvojka won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record7
WSep 18 · 15:40P. Chvojka331111113J. Jnr218670
LSep 12 · 13:45P. Chvojka228680J. Jnr331111113
WAug 31 · 14:10P. Chvojka341211113J. Jnr2410950
WAug 31 · 14:10P. Chvojka341211113J. Jnr2410950
LAug 28 · 14:10P. Chvojka2385100J. Jnr341111123
LAug 27 · 12:43P. Chvojka5111981492J. Jnr505111112113
LAug 27 · 10:40P. Chvojka3711111772J. Jnr47115911113
P. Chvojka10
WSep 19 · 16:10P. Sturma3.0046100P. Chvojka1.361111123LSep 19 · 13:40I. Jemelka1.731112123P. Chvojka2.00310100WSep 18 · 17:10P. Chvojka1.6111611133P. Sturma2.046112111WSep 18 · 15:40P. Chvojka2.251111113J. Jnr1.578670WSep 18 · 14:40P. Chvojka1.571111113P. Sturma2.258620WSep 18 · 13:40P. Chvojka1.831111113D. Muller1.836470WSep 14 · 12:34P. Chvojka1.7312124113P. Sturma2.0010101191WSep 14 · 12:10P. Sturma1.679440P. Chvojka2.101111113LSep 14 · 11:10P. Chvojka2.10121111892J. Sindler1.67148911113LSep 14 · 09:40L. Jr2.0071114123P. Chvojka1.7311912101
J. Jnr10
WSep 19 · 16:36J. Jnr1.361111113P. Sturma3.007880LSep 19 · 15:40I. Jemelka1.91111198113J. Jnr1.8059111192WSep 19 · 14:10J. Jnr2.2071411113P. Sturma1.611112891WSep 19 · 13:10J. Jnr2.087111111113J. Sindler1.5911981392WSep 19 · 11:40J. Sindler1.53117991J. Jnr2.3881111113WSep 19 · 11:10F. Mandrysz2.6381481262J. Jnr1.4411121110113LSep 19 · 10:10J. Jnr2.00119131182P. Sturma1.73611155113LSep 18 · 16:40J. Jnr1.4412115942D. Muller2.411061111113LSep 18 · 15:40P. Chvojka2.251111113J. Jnr1.578670WSep 18 · 15:10D. Muller2.385970J. Jnr1.531111113
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