TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13160408
Played Sep 19Finished
Jaroslav Neuwirth Jnr
Home
1.36
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
117118118––––
Patrik Sturma
Away
3.00
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
How it is goingJaroslav Neuwirth Jnr above · Patrik Sturma below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 11-8
Point 56 set 3, 11-8
56 points played in total.
H2H Jaroslav Neuwirth Jnr 16–20 Patrik Sturma Jaroslav Neuwirth Jnr has won 16 of their 36 meetings.
They have already met 2 times today · last one 2h before this match
Jnr beat Sturma 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
Signal confidence: 68% — Clear lean (leans Jnr)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Sturma form (20%) is below what odds imply (33%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsJnr 1.36 / Sturma 3.00
Signal prob.68% / 32%
Edge (Jnr)-0.4pp
TT Cup · #13160408
Jnr1.36
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite54% won 44 of 82
Up 2–0, closes it85% 22 of 26
Up 1–0, closes it67% 29 of 43
Sturma3.00
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog49% won 124 of 252
Down 0–1, comes back42% 53 of 126
Down 0–2, comes back7% 3 of 41
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeJnr3wins
AwaySturma7wins
4 of 10 to a deciderSturma leads 7–3, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeJnr33.3%2 of 6
AwaySturma75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Jnr6Sturma4n = 10Jnr took 6 of 10
S2Jnr4Sturma6n = 10Sturma took 6 of 10
S3Jnr1Sturma9n = 10Sturma took 9 of 10
S4Jnr5Sturma3n = 8Jnr took 5 of 8
S5Jnr1Sturma3n = 4Sturma took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricJnrSturmaJ − SBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match38.741.4−2.7per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricJnrSturmaBasisWin rate · lifetime142 / 271 vs 425 / 87452.4%48.6%142 / 271 vs 425 / 874Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.139.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
JnrJnr 1.36/Sturma 3.00
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
68.4%
Jnr · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Jnr won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 19 · 14:10J. Jnr4371411113P. Sturma401112891
LSep 19 · 10:10J. Jnr52119131182P. Sturma48611155113
LSep 18 · 14:10J. Jnr4611961192P. Sturma51911119113
LSep 18 · 13:10J. Jnr52111381192P. Sturma47315117113
WSep 18 · 09:40J. Jnr50111189113P. Sturma4779111192
LSep 12 · 18:15J. Jnr32611781P. Sturma3811511113
LSep 12 · 17:15J. Jnr34149561P. Sturma45121111113
WSep 12 · 15:45J. Jnr4111118113P. Sturma29851151
LSep 1 · 14:45J. Jnr2412750P. Sturma361411113
LAug 15 · 15:45J. Jnr136430P. Sturma331111113
J. Jnr10
LSep 19 · 15:40I. Jemelka1.91111198113J. Jnr1.8059111192LSep 19 · 15:10P. Chvojka1.91971111113J. Jnr1.8011117852WSep 19 · 14:10J. Jnr2.2071411113P. Sturma1.611112891WSep 19 · 13:10J. Jnr2.087111111113J. Sindler1.5911981392WSep 19 · 11:40J. Sindler1.53117991J. Jnr2.3881111113WSep 19 · 11:10F. Mandrysz2.6381481262J. Jnr1.4411121110113LSep 19 · 10:10J. Jnr2.00119131182P. Sturma1.73611155113LSep 18 · 16:40J. Jnr1.4412115942D. Muller2.411061111113LSep 18 · 15:40P. Chvojka2.251111113J. Jnr1.578670WSep 18 · 15:10D. Muller2.385970J. Jnr1.531111113
P. Sturma10
LSep 19 · 16:10P. Sturma3.0046100P. Chvojka1.361111123WSep 19 · 14:40I. Jemelka1.8012111041P. Sturma1.9114412113LSep 19 · 14:10J. Jnr2.2071411113P. Sturma1.611112891LSep 19 · 12:40F. Mandrysz2.00611139113P. Sturma1.73115111192LSep 19 · 12:10P. Sturma1.91119691F. Mandrysz1.8091111113LSep 19 · 10:40J. Sindler1.731511133P. Sturma2.00137110WSep 19 · 10:10J. Jnr2.00119131182P. Sturma1.73611155113LSep 18 · 17:10P. Chvojka1.6111611133P. Sturma2.046112111WSep 18 · 16:10P. Sturma1.7381111113D. Muller2.00112761LSep 18 · 14:40P. Chvojka1.571111113P. Sturma2.258620
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