TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13158394
Played Sep 19Finished
Ivan Jemelka
Home
1.80
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 2
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
12141141012411––
Patrik Sturma
Away
1.91
At publish
Lost last 4Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 08:54 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeIvan Jemelka to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingIvan Jemelka above · Patrik Sturma below
Set 1 · 12-14
Set 2 · 11-4
Set 3 · 10-12
Set 4 · 4-11
Point 78 set 4, 4-11 — our read held Ivan Jemelka at 54.0%
78 points played in total.
H2H Ivan Jemelka 1–4 Patrik Sturma Ivan Jemelka has won 1 of their 5 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 08:54What took a side4 for · 2 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Jemelka
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-4 in 5
Sturma
Correct
gap of 3 in 5, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Jemelka 1482 vs Sturma 1296
Jemelka
Wrong
both rated, 185 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Jemelka 80% vs Sturma 20%
Jemelka
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Jemelka 70% vs Sturma 40%
Jemelka
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Jemelka +2 · Sturma -4
Sturma
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Jemelka)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Sturma form (20%) is below what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsJemelka 1.80 / Sturma 1.91
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Jemelka)+2.5pp
TT Cup · #13158394
Jemelka1.80
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite51% won 18 of 35
Up 2–0, closes it80% 8 of 10
Up 1–0, closes it72% 13 of 18
Sturma1.91
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 4
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog49% won 124 of 252
Down 0–1, comes back42% 53 of 126
Down 0–2, comes back7% 3 of 41
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 5 meetings
HomeJemelka1wins
AwaySturma4wins
1 of 5 to a deciderSturma leads 4–1, and 1 of those 5 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeJemelkan = 2, below the 3 needed
AwaySturma66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 5 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Jemelka2Sturma3n = 5Sturma took 3 of 5
S2Jemelka2Sturma3n = 5Sturma took 3 of 5
S3Jemelka3Sturma2n = 5Jemelka took 3 of 5
S4Jemelka1Sturma4n = 5Sturma took 4 of 5
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 5 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 5 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home120%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away120%
1–3Four sets, away360%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 5 meetings
MetricJemelkaSturmaJ − SBasisWins14−3in 5 meetingsFirst set23−1of 5Avg pointsper match31.242.0−10.8per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricJemelkaSturmaBasisWin rate · lifetime60 / 121 vs 424 / 87249.6%48.6%60 / 121 vs 424 / 872Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.339.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
JemelkaJemelka 1.80/Sturma 1.91
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Jemelka · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Sturma won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record5
LSep 12 · 19:45I. Jemelka3621111392P. Sturma49118811113
WAug 20 · 11:10I. Jemelka4241116113P. Sturma401181471
LAug 14 · 12:15I. Jemelka241110211P. Sturma4281211113
LJul 29 · 20:38I. Jemelka26681111P. Sturma4011117113
LJul 29 · 18:45I. Jemelka28114671P. Sturma3961111113
I. Jemelka10
WSep 19 · 15:40I. Jemelka1.91111198113J. Jnr1.8059111192WSep 19 · 13:40I. Jemelka1.731112123P. Chvojka2.00310100WSep 15 · 09:13A. Strelec2.63821181I. Jemelka1.4411118113LSep 15 · 07:40I. Jemelka1.7328120A. Strelec2.001111143WSep 15 · 06:40I. Jemelka1.611111113L. Snr2.208680WSep 15 · 05:40I. Jemelka1.531181413113J. Matus2.38811121592WSep 12 · 20:49I. Jemelka2.00591113113J. Jnr1.73111151192LSep 12 · 19:45I. Jemelka1.6721111392P. Sturma2.10118811113WSep 12 · 18:45I. Jemelka2.005121112113J. Jnr1.73111061452LSep 12 · 17:45I. Jemelka1.44111125102L. Jr2.63891111123
P. Sturma10
LSep 19 · 14:10J. Jnr2.2071411113P. Sturma1.611112891LSep 19 · 12:40F. Mandrysz2.00611139113P. Sturma1.73115111192LSep 19 · 12:10P. Sturma1.91119691F. Mandrysz1.8091111113LSep 19 · 10:40J. Sindler1.731511133P. Sturma2.00137110WSep 19 · 10:10J. Jnr2.00119131182P. Sturma1.73611155113LSep 18 · 17:10P. Chvojka1.6111611133P. Sturma2.046112111WSep 18 · 16:10P. Sturma1.7381111113D. Muller2.00112761LSep 18 · 14:40P. Chvojka1.571111113P. Sturma2.258620WSep 18 · 14:10J. Jnr1.9111961192P. Sturma1.80911119113WSep 12 · 19:45I. Jemelka1.6721111392P. Sturma2.10118811113
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