TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13132119
Played Sep 15Finished
Ivan Jemelka
Home
1.73
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 3
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
2118111214––––
Adam Strelec
Away
2.00
At publish
Won last 5Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 5
The read, and what happenedsealed at 23:06 and never touched — 54.5% is still 54.5%
Graded at full timeIvan Jemelka to win
54.5%
54.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingIvan Jemelka above · Adam Strelec below
Set 1 · 2-11
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 12-14
Point 58 set 3, 12-14 — our read held Ivan Jemelka at 54.5%
58 points played in total.
H2H Ivan Jemelka 1–3 Adam Strelec Ivan Jemelka has won 1 of their 4 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 23:06What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Jemelka
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-3 in 4
Strelec
Correct
gap of 2 in 4, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Jemelka 1411 vs Strelec 1406
Jemelka
Wrong
both rated, 5 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Jemelka 80% vs Strelec 100%
Strelec
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Jemelka 70% vs Strelec 80%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Jemelka +3 · Strelec +5
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 55% — Coin-flip (leans Jemelka)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Strelec form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (50%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsJemelka 1.73 / Strelec 2.00
Signal prob.55% / 46%
Edge (Jemelka)+0.8pp
TT Cup · #13132119
Jemelka1.73
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite48% won 15 of 31
Up 2–0, closes it75% 6 of 8
Up 1–0, closes it67% 10 of 15
Strelec2.00
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Won last 5
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog44% won 32 of 72
Down 0–1, comes back25% 10 of 40
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 20
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 4 meetings
HomeJemelka1wins
AwayStrelec3wins
1 of 4 to a deciderStrelec leads 3–1, and 1 of those 4 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeJemelkan = 1, below the 3 needed
AwayStrelec100%3 of 3
Set by set, in these 4 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Jemelka1Strelec3n = 4Strelec took 3 of 4
S2Jemelka2Strelec2n = 4split evenly
S3Jemelka2Strelec2n = 4split evenly
S4Jemelka1Strelec2n = 3Strelec took 2 of 3
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 4 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 4 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home125%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away125%
1–3Four sets, away125%
0–3Straight, away125%
These 4 meetings
MetricJemelkaStrelecJ − SBasisWins13−2in 4 meetingsFirst set13−2of 4Avg pointsper match35.835.5+0.3per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricJemelkaStrelecBasisWin rate · lifetime58 / 119 vs 117 / 23348.7%50.2%58 / 119 vs 117 / 233Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.338.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
JemelkaJemelka 1.73/Strelec 2.00
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54.5%
Jemelka · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Strelec won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record4
LSep 15 · 07:40I. Jemelka2228120A. Strelec361111143
WAug 14 · 12:44I. Jemelka4011117113A. Strelec29461181
LAug 14 · 10:15I. Jemelka38991191A. Strelec3911116113
LAug 1 · 11:45I. Jemelka4361111782A. Strelec38112311113
I. Jemelka10
WSep 15 · 06:40I. Jemelka1.611111113L. Snr2.208680WSep 15 · 05:40I. Jemelka1.531181413113J. Matus2.38811121592WSep 12 · 20:49I. Jemelka2.00591113113J. Jnr1.73111151192LSep 12 · 19:45I. Jemelka1.6721111392P. Sturma2.10118811113WSep 12 · 18:45I. Jemelka2.005121112113J. Jnr1.73111061452LSep 12 · 17:45I. Jemelka1.44111125102L. Jr2.63891111123WSep 11 · 21:25P. Jokiel1.5861040I. Jemelka2.131112113WSep 11 · 20:10T. Ogrocki1.6712117792I. Jemelka2.101081111113WSep 11 · 19:10I. Jemelka2.1011119113O. Skvor1.67781171LSep 11 · 17:40P. Jokiel1.5713711113I. Jemelka2.251111671
A. Strelec10
WSep 15 · 07:10J. Matus1.833411101A. Strelec1.8311119123WSep 15 · 06:10A. Strelec2.001111123L. Snr1.7354100WSep 14 · 09:33J. Matus1.91111071172A. Strelec1.80212115113WSep 14 · 07:40J. Sindler1.737990A. Strelec2.001111113WSep 14 · 07:10P. Sturma2.3811118942A. Strelec1.53681111113LSep 14 · 06:10A. Strelec1.80118125112J. Matus1.915111011133LSep 9 · 09:20A. Strelec1.77371171J. Matus1.8711116113WSep 9 · 07:45J. Sindler1.6791111742A. Strelec2.10117411113WSep 9 · 07:15F. Mandrysz1.67112881A. Strelec2.1061111113WSep 9 · 06:15A. Strelec1.83119116133J. Matus1.83811411112
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