TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13158207
Played Sep 19Finished
Ivan Jemelka
Home
1.73
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
11312101210––––
Peter Chvojka
Away
2.00
At publish
Won last 6Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 6
The read, and what happenedsealed at 08:17 and never touched — 57.5% is still 57.5%
Graded at full timePeter Chvojka to win
57.5%
57.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingIvan Jemelka above · Peter Chvojka below
Set 1 · 11-3
Set 2 · 12-10
Set 3 · 12-10
Point 58 set 3, 12-10 — our read held Peter Chvojka at 57.5%
58 points played in total.
H2H Ivan Jemelka 3–5 Peter Chvojka Ivan Jemelka has won 3 of their 8 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 08:17What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Jemelka
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-5 in 8
Chvojka
Wrong
gap of 2 in 8, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Jemelka 1460 vs Chvojka 1392
Jemelka
Correct
both rated, 68 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Jemelka 80% vs Chvojka 100%
Chvojka
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Jemelka 70% vs Chvojka 80%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Jemelka +1 · Chvojka +6
Chvojka
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Jemelka) · live re-read · sealed at 43% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Chvojka form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (50%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsJemelka 1.73 / Chvojka 2.00
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Jemelka)+0.4pp
TT Cup · #13158207
Jemelka1.73
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 4 days ago (Sep 15)
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite51% won 18 of 35
Up 2–0, closes it80% 8 of 10
Up 1–0, closes it72% 13 of 18
Chvojka2.00
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 6
oldest → newest90%takes the first set · 9 of 10
As underdog39% won 40 of 104
Down 0–1, comes back19% 10 of 54
Down 0–2, comes back3% 1 of 30
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 8 meetings
HomeJemelka3wins
AwayChvojka5wins
3 of 8 to a deciderChvojka leads 5–3, and 3 of those 8 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeJemelka66.7%2 of 3
AwayChvojka80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 8 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Jemelka3Chvojka5n = 8Chvojka took 5 of 8
S2Jemelka2Chvojka6n = 8Chvojka took 6 of 8
S3Jemelka6Chvojka2n = 8Jemelka took 6 of 8
S4Jemelka3Chvojka4n = 7Chvojka took 4 of 7
S5Jemelka1Chvojka2n = 3Chvojka took 2 of 3
How those 8 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 8 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home225%
3–2Decider, home113%
2–3Decider, away225%
1–3Four sets, away225%
0–3Straight, away113%
These 8 meetings
MetricJemelkaChvojkaJ − CBasisWins35−2in 8 meetingsFirst set35−2of 8Avg pointsper match38.841.1−2.3per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricJemelkaChvojkaBasisWin rate · lifetime59 / 120 vs 142 / 30849.2%46.1%59 / 120 vs 142 / 308Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.337.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
JemelkaJemelka 1.73/Chvojka 2.00
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54.1%
Jemelka · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Jemelka won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record8
LSep 3 · 19:10I. Jemelka3321231152P. Chvojka511110118113
WAug 24 · 09:15I. Jemelka54119127153P. Chvojka527111011132
LAug 24 · 06:15I. Jemelka31751181P. Chvojka3811115113
WAug 12 · 09:25I. Jemelka44111111113P. Chvojka37713981
WAug 12 · 08:15I. Jemelka44111111113P. Chvojka29137361
LAug 10 · 12:55I. Jemelka471110115102P. Chvojka51912711123
LAug 10 · 12:15I. Jemelka34781181P. Chvojka3811115113
LJun 18 · 13:45I. Jemelka238960P. Chvojka331111113
I. Jemelka10
WSep 19 · 15:40I. Jemelka1.91111198113J. Jnr1.8059111192LSep 19 · 14:40I. Jemelka1.8012111041P. Sturma1.9114412113WSep 15 · 09:13A. Strelec2.63821181I. Jemelka1.4411118113LSep 15 · 07:40I. Jemelka1.7328120A. Strelec2.001111143WSep 15 · 06:40I. Jemelka1.611111113L. Snr2.208680WSep 15 · 05:40I. Jemelka1.531181413113J. Matus2.38811121592WSep 12 · 20:49I. Jemelka2.00591113113J. Jnr1.73111151192LSep 12 · 19:45I. Jemelka1.6721111392P. Sturma2.10118811113WSep 12 · 18:45I. Jemelka2.005121112113J. Jnr1.73111061452LSep 12 · 17:45I. Jemelka1.44111125102L. Jr2.63891111123
P. Chvojka10
WSep 19 · 15:10P. Chvojka1.91971111113J. Jnr1.8011117852WSep 18 · 17:10P. Chvojka1.6111611133P. Sturma2.046112111WSep 18 · 15:40P. Chvojka2.251111113J. Jnr1.578670WSep 18 · 14:40P. Chvojka1.571111113P. Sturma2.258620WSep 18 · 13:40P. Chvojka1.831111113D. Muller1.836470WSep 14 · 12:34P. Chvojka1.7312124113P. Sturma2.0010101191WSep 14 · 12:10P. Sturma1.679440P. Chvojka2.101111113LSep 14 · 11:10P. Chvojka2.10121111892J. Sindler1.67148911113LSep 14 · 09:40L. Jr2.0071114123P. Chvojka1.7311912101WSep 12 · 16:45P. Chvojka1.301114113M. Sobota3.4061290
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