TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13159390
Played Sep 19Finished
Jaroslav Neuwirth Jnr
Home
2.08
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
7111191181113119
Jaroslav Sindler
Away
1.59
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
8–2Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:56 and never touched — 60.3% is still 60.3%
Graded at full timeJaroslav Sindler to win
60.3%
60.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingJaroslav Neuwirth Jnr above · Jaroslav Sindler below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 11-13
Set 5 · 11-9
Point 101 set 5, 11-9 — our read held Jaroslav Sindler at 60.3%
101 points played in total.
H2H Jaroslav Neuwirth Jnr 7–10 Jaroslav Sindler Jaroslav Neuwirth Jnr has won 7 of their 17 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 2h before this match
Jnr beat Sindler 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 12:56What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.59 (57%)
Sindler
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
7-10 in 17
Sindler
Wrong
gap of 3 in 17, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Jnr 1380 vs Sindler 1490
Sindler
Wrong
both rated, 110 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Jnr 40% vs Sindler 80%
Sindler
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Jnr 50% vs Sindler 80%
Sindler
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Jnr +2 · Sindler -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 60% — Slight lean (leans Sindler)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Sindler form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (63%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsJnr 2.08 / Sindler 1.59
Signal prob.40% / 60%
Edge (Sindler)+3.6pp
TT Cup · #13159390
Jnr2.08
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog42% won 23 of 55
Down 0–1, comes back31% 8 of 26
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 10
Sindler1.59
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite54% won 132 of 245
Up 2–0, closes it90% 47 of 52
Up 1–0, closes it70% 85 of 122
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeJnr3wins
AwaySindler7wins
1 of 10 to a deciderSindler leads 7–3, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeJnr50%2 of 4
AwaySindler83.3%5 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Jnr4Sindler6n = 10Sindler took 6 of 10
S2Jnr3Sindler7n = 10Sindler took 7 of 10
S3Jnr4Sindler6n = 10Sindler took 6 of 10
S4Jnr4Sindler4n = 8split evenly
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricJnrSindlerJ − SBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match35.338.4−3.1per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricJnrSindlerBasisWin rate · lifetime140 / 267 vs 415 / 79752.4%52.1%140 / 267 vs 415 / 797Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.040.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SindlerJnr 2.08/Sindler 1.59
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
60.3%
Sindler · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Jnr won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 19 · 11:40J. Jnr4181111113J. Sindler36117991
LJul 20 · 12:43J. Jnr35119781J. Sindler4181111113
WJul 20 · 09:45J. Jnr4011711113J. Sindler33711781
LJul 18 · 13:40J. Jnr45111151172J. Sindler45135115113
LJul 15 · 14:45J. Jnr239590J. Sindler331111113
LJun 29 · 11:45J. Jnr27413100J. Sindler381115123
LJun 19 · 14:15J. Jnr26621171J. Sindler3611113113
LMay 29 · 14:10J. Jnr33117871J. Sindler4291111113
WMay 9 · 14:10J. Jnr4919118113J. Sindler411751181
LApr 25 · 15:40J. Jnr34971171J. Sindler3911116113
J. Jnr10
WSep 19 · 14:10J. Jnr2.2071411113P. Sturma1.611112891WSep 19 · 11:40J. Sindler1.53117991J. Jnr2.3881111113WSep 19 · 11:10F. Mandrysz2.6381481262J. Jnr1.4411121110113LSep 19 · 10:10J. Jnr2.00119131182P. Sturma1.73611155113LSep 18 · 16:40J. Jnr1.4412115942D. Muller2.411061111113LSep 18 · 15:40P. Chvojka2.251111113J. Jnr1.578670WSep 18 · 15:10D. Muller2.385970J. Jnr1.531111113LSep 18 · 14:10J. Jnr1.9111961192P. Sturma1.80911119113LSep 18 · 13:10J. Jnr1.80111381192P. Sturma1.91315117113WSep 18 · 11:40J. Jnr1.671111113Z. Chovancik2.109870
J. Sindler10
LSep 19 · 11:40J. Sindler1.53117991J. Jnr2.3881111113WSep 19 · 10:40J. Sindler1.731511133P. Sturma2.00137110WSep 19 · 09:40J. Sindler1.61111211113F. Mandrysz2.20614581WSep 17 · 09:15J. Sindler1.60511136113P. Chlad2.20119111192WSep 17 · 08:10J. Sindler1.7311125113J. Matus2.006101151WSep 17 · 06:40P. Jokiel1.838470J. Sindler1.831111113WSep 17 · 06:10P. Chlad2.006111061J. Sindler1.7311612113LSep 16 · 13:20J. Sindler1.7363100M. Lorenc2.001111123WSep 16 · 12:15J. Sindler1.53111248113L. Jr2.38610111172WSep 16 · 10:45M. Lorenc1.8361112101J. Sindler1.8311514123
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