TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Oleksandr Blashkun vs Daniil Habrelyan 1-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Sep 23Finished
Oleksandr Blashkun
Home
1.67
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 2
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
4111128111012––
Daniil Habrelyan
Away
2.10
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:23 and never touched — 56.6% is still 56.6%
Graded at full timeOleksandr Blashkun to win
56.6%
56.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingOleksandr Blashkun above · Daniil Habrelyan below
Set 1 · 4-11
Set 2 · 11-2
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 10-12
Point 69 set 4, 10-12 — our read held Oleksandr Blashkun at 56.6%
69 points played in total.
H2H Oleksandr Blashkun 3–1 Daniil Habrelyan Daniil Habrelyan has won 1 of their 4 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:23What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Blashkun
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-1 in 4
Blashkun
Wrong
gap of 2 in 4, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Blashkun 1619 vs Habrelyan 1554
Blashkun
Wrong
both rated, 64 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Blashkun 40% vs Habrelyan 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Blashkun 60% vs Habrelyan 40%
Blashkun
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Blashkun -2 · Habrelyan -3
Habrelyan
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 56% — Slight lean (leans Blashkun) · live re-read · sealed at 57% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Blashkun form (40%) is below what odds imply (60%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBlashkun 1.67 / Habrelyan 2.10
Signal prob.56% / 44%
Edge (Blashkun)+0.0pp
Setka Cup · #13180337
Blashkun1.67
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite54% won 25 of 46
Up 2–0, closes it85% 11 of 13
Up 1–0, closes it68% 19 of 28
Habrelyan2.10
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 3
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog34% won 27 of 80
Down 0–1, comes back21% 9 of 44
Down 0–2, comes back7% 2 of 29
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 4 meetings
HomeBlashkun3wins
AwayHabrelyan1wins
2 of 4 to a deciderBlashkun leads 3–1, and 2 of those 4 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 4 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Blashkun2Habrelyan2n = 4split evenly
S2Blashkun2Habrelyan2n = 4split evenly
S3Blashkun2Habrelyan2n = 4split evenly
S4
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 4 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 4 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home125%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home250%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away125%
These 4 meetings
MetricBlashkunHabrelyanB − HBasisWins31+2in 4 meetingsFirst set220of 4Avg pointsper match37.837.5+0.3per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBlashkunHabrelyanBasisWin rate · lifetime88 / 184 vs 182 / 39447.8%46.2%88 / 184 vs 182 / 394Avg sets wonper match1.91.9per matchAvg pointsper match36.936.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
BlashkunBlashkun 1.67/Habrelyan 2.10
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
55.8%
Blashkun · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Habrelyan won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record4
LAug 16 · 06:00O. Blashkun2210660D. Habrelyan341211113
WJun 14 · 07:00O. Blashkun49711119113D. Habrelyan4511791172
WJun 13 · 11:40O. Blashkun47118411133D. Habrelyan49911117112
WApr 12 · 04:30O. Blashkun331111113D. Habrelyan229490
O. Blashkun10
LSep 23 · 11:40M. Tiutiunnyk1.6171111113O. Blashkun2.20118891LAug 30 · 10:30O. Blashkun1.40561171Y. Makovka2.7511117113WAug 30 · 09:00O. Blashkun1.50121111113V. Merzlikin2.501013841LAug 30 · 07:30O. Blashkun1.44131112482R. Sopivnyk2.631191411113WAug 30 · 06:00O. Blashkun2.251211113O. Zhyrnov1.5710890LAug 30 · 04:30O. Blashkun1.61115691Y. Holoborodko2.2051111113WAug 29 · 17:40O. Blashkun1.30811911113Y. Makovka3.4011611572WAug 29 · 15:40A. Droshchynskyi1.4411961152O. Blashkun2.63711117113WAug 29 · 13:40V. Merzlikin2.204980O. Blashkun1.611111113WAug 29 · 12:40O. Blashkun2.6314117113O. Zhyrnov1.441251151
D. Habrelyan10
LSep 23 · 10:40O. Kuzyshyn1.441111113D. Habrelyan2.639960LSep 16 · 17:10V. Merzlikin1.53111110113D. Habrelyan2.38491241LSep 16 · 16:10A. Zozulia1.8011117113D. Habrelyan1.91851171WSep 16 · 14:40Y. Skorobahatyi1.91117127102D. Habrelyan1.809111011123WSep 16 · 12:40Y. Holoborodko2.50118781D. Habrelyan1.5061111113WSep 16 · 10:40O. Kuzyshyn1.40109111162D. Habrelyan2.75121168113LSep 9 · 17:10D. Habrelyan1.6191111872O. Nadporozhskyi2.20118311113LSep 9 · 15:10V. Merzlikin1.571112113D. Habrelyan2.2591070WSep 9 · 14:10D. Habrelyan1.501111143Y. Holoborodko2.5068120LSep 9 · 13:10Y. Bondarenko1.531111113D. Habrelyan2.388730
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