TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13136587
Played Sep 16Finished
Valerii Merzlikin
Home
1.53
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1141191012114––
Daniil Habrelyan
Away
2.38
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:48 and never touched — 59.6% is still 59.6%
Graded at full timeValerii Merzlikin to win
59.6%
59.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingValerii Merzlikin above · Daniil Habrelyan below
Set 1 · 11-4
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 10-12
Set 4 · 11-4
Point 72 set 4, 11-4 — our read held Valerii Merzlikin at 59.6%
72 points played in total.
H2H Valerii Merzlikin 21–11 Daniil Habrelyan Daniil Habrelyan has won 11 of their 32 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 19:48What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Merzlikin
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
21-11 in 32
Merzlikin
Correct
gap of 10 in 32, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Merzlikin 1495 vs Habrelyan 1575
Habrelyan
Wrong
both rated, 79 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Merzlikin 60% vs Habrelyan 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Merzlikin 40% vs Habrelyan 60%
Habrelyan
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Merzlikin +1 · Habrelyan -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 58% — Slight lean (leans Merzlikin) · live re-read · sealed at 60% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Habrelyan form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (42%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMerzlikin 1.53 / Habrelyan 2.38
Signal prob.58% / 42%
Edge (Merzlikin)-2.8pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13136587
Merzlikin1.53
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
10%takes the first set · 1 of 10
As favourite53% won 17 of 32
Up 2–0, closes it88% 7 of 8
Up 1–0, closes it64% 9 of 14
Habrelyan2.38
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog34% won 26 of 77
Down 0–1, comes back21% 9 of 42
Down 0–2, comes back7% 2 of 27
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMerzlikin7wins
AwayHabrelyan3wins
4 of 10 to a deciderMerzlikin leads 7–3, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMerzlikin83.3%5 of 6
AwayHabrelyan50%2 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Merzlikin6Habrelyan4n = 10Merzlikin took 6 of 10
S2Merzlikin7Habrelyan3n = 10Merzlikin took 7 of 10
S3Merzlikin3Habrelyan7n = 10Habrelyan took 7 of 10
S4Merzlikin5Habrelyan2n = 7Merzlikin took 5 of 7
S5Merzlikin3Habrelyan1n = 4Merzlikin took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricMerzlikinHabrelyanM − HBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match38.537.6+0.9per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMerzlikinHabrelyanBasisWin rate · lifetime272 / 604 vs 191 / 40545%47.2%272 / 604 vs 191 / 405Avg sets wonper match1.91.9per matchAvg pointsper match36.936.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MerzlikinMerzlikin 1.53/Habrelyan 2.38
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
58%
Merzlikin · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Merzlikin won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 9 · 15:10V. Merzlikin341112113D. Habrelyan2691070
WAug 19 · 15:40V. Merzlikin43118211113D. Habrelyan4991111992
WAug 12 · 16:10V. Merzlikin43111110113D. Habrelyan34851291
WMar 29 · 07:30V. Merzlikin49811118113D. Habrelyan3711651142
WMar 28 · 16:10V. Merzlikin48811611123D. Habrelyan45119114102
WJan 7 · 14:40V. Merzlikin381111163D. Habrelyan2987140
LDec 31 · 09:05V. Merzlikin176470D. Habrelyan331111113
LDec 24 · 18:00V. Merzlikin4011551182D. Habrelyan50811119113
LDec 17 · 17:40V. Merzlikin32611871D. Habrelyan4211911113
WDec 12 · 13:20V. Merzlikin4111118113D. Habrelyan31881141
V. Merzlikin10
WSep 16 · 15:10O. Kuzyshyn1.73115661V. Merzlikin2.0081111113LSep 16 · 14:10V. Merzlikin2.0091040A. Zozulia1.731112113WSep 16 · 13:10Y. Skorobahatyi1.5311116862V. Merzlikin2.38641111113LSep 16 · 11:40V. Merzlikin2.005680Y. Holoborodko1.731111113WSep 12 · 16:40Y. Skorobahatyi1.50137751V. Merzlikin2.50111111113LSep 12 · 15:40V. Merzlikin3.409540A. Droshchynskyi1.30111153WSep 12 · 14:40V. Merzlikin1.8341191183V. Maksuta1.8311911972LSep 12 · 13:10V. Merzlikin1.53116971M. Tiutiunnyk2.3891111113LSep 12 · 11:10V. Merzlikin1.8010580Y. Holoborodko1.911211113LSep 9 · 16:40V. Merzlikin2.00101181162Y. Bondarenko1.73123117113
D. Habrelyan10
LSep 16 · 16:10A. Zozulia1.8011117113D. Habrelyan1.91851171WSep 16 · 14:40Y. Skorobahatyi1.91117127102D. Habrelyan1.809111011123WSep 16 · 12:40Y. Holoborodko2.50118781D. Habrelyan1.5061111113WSep 16 · 10:40O. Kuzyshyn1.40109111162D. Habrelyan2.75121168113LSep 9 · 17:10D. Habrelyan1.6191111872O. Nadporozhskyi2.20118311113LSep 9 · 15:10V. Merzlikin1.571112113D. Habrelyan2.2591070WSep 9 · 14:10D. Habrelyan1.501111143Y. Holoborodko2.5068120LSep 9 · 13:10Y. Bondarenko1.531111113D. Habrelyan2.388730WSep 9 · 11:40D. Habrelyan2.1011119113M. Tiutiunnyk1.67681151WSep 8 · 10:30Y. Volkov2.103690D. Habrelyan1.671111113
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