TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Pavel Smetka vs Lukas Velicka 1-3 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Sep 23Finished
Pavel Smetka
Home
1.73
At publish
Lost last 6Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 6
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
119611711911––
Lukas Velicka
Away
2.00
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:53 and never touched — 57.0% is still 57.0%
Graded at full timePavel Smetka to win
57.0%
57.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingPavel Smetka above · Lukas Velicka below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 9-11
Point 75 set 4, 9-11 — our read held Pavel Smetka at 57.0%
75 points played in total.
H2H Pavel Smetka 5–4 Lukas Velicka Lukas Velicka has won 4 of their 9 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 13:53What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Smetka
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
5-4 in 9
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Smetka 1507 vs Velicka 1546
Velicka
Correct
both rated, 38 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Smetka 0% vs Velicka 20%
Velicka
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Smetka 30% vs Velicka 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Smetka -6 · Velicka +1
Smetka
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Smetka) · live re-read · sealed at 57% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Velicka form (20%) is below what odds imply (50%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSmetka 1.73 / Velicka 2.00
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Smetka)+0.4pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13178749
Smetka1.73
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 6
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite73% won 11 of 15
Up 2–0, closes it100% 8 of 8
Up 1–0, closes it85% 11 of 13
Velicka2.00
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog45% won 25 of 56
Down 0–1, comes back25% 9 of 36
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 17
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 9 meetings
HomeSmetka5wins
AwayVelicka4wins
2 of 9 to a deciderSmetka leads 5–4, and 2 of those 9 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSmetka80%4 of 5
AwayVelicka75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 9 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Smetka5Velicka4n = 9Smetka took 5 of 9
S2Smetka4Velicka5n = 9Velicka took 5 of 9
S3Smetka7Velicka2n = 9Smetka took 7 of 9
S4Smetka2Velicka3n = 5Velicka took 3 of 5
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 9 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 9 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home333%
3–1Four sets, home111%
3–2Decider, home111%
2–3Decider, away111%
1–3Four sets, away222%
0–3Straight, away111%
These 9 meetings
MetricSmetkaVelickaS − VBasisWins54+1in 9 meetingsFirst set54+1of 9Avg pointsper match35.733.3+2.4per matchSweeps31+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSmetkaVelickaBasisWin rate · lifetime69 / 151 vs 110 / 21245.7%51.9%69 / 151 vs 110 / 212Avg sets wonper match1.82.1per matchAvg pointsper match34.239.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SmetkaSmetka 1.73/Velicka 2.00
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54.1%
Smetka · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Velicka won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record9
WJan 30 · 07:30P. Smetka331111113L. Velicka124350
LJan 15 · 14:30P. Smetka2679100L. Velicka341111123
LJan 15 · 13:00P. Smetka29471171L. Velicka3711114113
WJan 9 · 09:00P. Smetka331111113L. Velicka225980
LNov 5 · 10:26P. Smetka4111811742L. Velicka45611611113
WNov 5 · 09:00P. Smetka49813512113L. Velicka471111111042
LOct 23 · 06:30P. Smetka381191171L. Velicka4413119113
WOct 7 · 08:00P. Smetka331111113L. Velicka228770
WOct 6 · 08:00P. Smetka3911611113L. Velicka37911891
P. Smetka10
LSep 23 · 16:59R. Vavrecka1.331111116113P. Smetka3.2513581162LSep 23 · 15:00P. Smetka2.10871161D. Machander1.6711114113LSep 23 · 14:00R. Vavrecka1.221111113P. Smetka4.008180LApr 25 · 17:05D. Heczko1.201111113P. Smetka4.335650LApr 25 · 16:00P. Smetka2.639740S. Byrtus1.441111113LApr 25 · 15:30D. Heczko1.441111113P. Smetka2.639450LApr 25 · 14:00P. Smetka1.6757120M. Volny2.101111143WApr 23 · 13:29V. Adamczyk1.5376100P. Smetka2.381111123WApr 23 · 12:30M. Volny1.738760P. Smetka2.001111113LApr 23 · 11:30P. Smetka2.2071110121V. Adamczyk1.6111412143
L. Velicka10
LSep 23 · 17:28L. Velicka2.208101171D. Machander1.6111127113WSep 23 · 15:30L. Velicka1.911111113R. Vavrecka1.806790LSep 23 · 14:30D. Machander1.80111111113L. Velicka1.91136971LSep 20 · 21:12M. Volny1.2512511113L. Velicka3.751011591LSep 20 · 20:30L. Velicka2.3810121111112M. Volny1.53121496133LSep 20 · 19:00L. Velicka1.918560V. Cerny1.801111113LSep 20 · 18:00D. Oborny1.611111133L. Velicka2.2088110LSep 11 · 21:29L. Velicka1.6711471692M. Blejchar2.108111114113WSep 11 · 20:00L. Velicka1.801111314113R. Adam1.91913111252WSep 11 · 19:30P. Osvald2.10118681L. Velicka1.6781111113
Upcoming Matches
P. Smetka
Nothing scheduled
L. Velicka
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