TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Sep 20Finished
Dominik Oborny
Home
1.62
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
1181181311––––
Lukas Velicka
Away
2.20
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:48 and never touched — 55.9% is still 55.9%
Graded at full timeDominik Oborny to win
55.9%
55.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingDominik Oborny above · Lukas Velicka below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 13-11
Point 62 set 3, 13-11 — our read held Dominik Oborny at 55.9%
62 points played in total.
H2H Dominik Oborny 8–5 Lukas Velicka Lukas Velicka has won 5 of their 13 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 14:48What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Oborny
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
8-5 in 13
Oborny
Correct
gap of 3 in 13, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Oborny 1537 vs Velicka 1559
Velicka
Wrong
both rated, 22 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Oborny 40% vs Velicka 60%
Velicka
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Oborny 50% vs Velicka 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Oborny +1 · Velicka -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 56% — Slight lean (leans Oborny)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Velicka form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (45%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsOborny 1.61 / Velicka 2.20
Signal prob.56% / 44%
Edge (Oborny)-1.8pp (anti-value)
Czech Liga Pro · #13159991
Oborny1.61
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite63% won 90 of 143
Up 2–0, closes it96% 52 of 54
Up 1–0, closes it85% 77 of 91
Velicka2.20
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 9 days ago (Sep 11) · back after a break
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog48% won 25 of 52
Down 0–1, comes back28% 9 of 32
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 14
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeOborny5wins
AwayVelicka5wins
6 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 6 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeOborny57.1%4 of 7
AwayVelicka66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Oborny7Velicka3n = 10Oborny took 7 of 10
S2Oborny4Velicka6n = 10Velicka took 6 of 10
S3Oborny8Velicka2n = 10Oborny took 8 of 10
S4Oborny5Velicka3n = 8Oborny took 5 of 8
S5Oborny1Velicka5n = 6Velicka took 5 of 6
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away550%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricObornyVelickaO − VBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match43.139.1+4.0per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricObornyVelickaBasisWin rate · lifetime320 / 618 vs 109 / 20651.8%52.9%320 / 618 vs 109 / 206Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.939.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ObornyOborny 1.61/Velicka 2.20
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
55.9%
Oborny · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Oborny won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 2 · 19:30D. Oborny50119137102L. Velicka505111111123
LJul 7 · 19:30D. Oborny4476111192L. Velicka51111199113
WJun 21 · 21:30D. Oborny4111811113L. Velicka24511621
LJun 21 · 18:30D. Oborny4511711792L. Velicka44911211113
WJun 14 · 20:30D. Oborny331111113L. Velicka249960
WMay 28 · 18:00D. Oborny51119911113L. Velicka4071111742
LMay 14 · 20:58D. Oborny48117111182L. Velicka50711138113
WMay 14 · 19:00D. Oborny4491311113L. Velicka391111891
WApr 28 · 20:30D. Oborny331111113L. Velicka204790
LJan 30 · 08:30D. Oborny4261111772L. Velicka49117911113
D. Oborny10
WSep 20 · 09:17D. Oborny1.4011117113D. Machander2.75871171LSep 20 · 08:00A. Rinka1.61913119113D. Oborny2.20111161132WSep 20 · 07:00M. Heczko2.0061161182D. Oborny1.73117119113LSep 20 · 06:30D. Oborny1.5311117642D. Machander2.38641111113LSep 18 · 21:30R. Vavrecka1.671111113D. Oborny2.089620LSep 18 · 20:30D. Oborny2.1010890R. Vavrecka1.671211113WSep 18 · 19:00D. Oborny2.001112113J. Levicky1.7331070WSep 18 · 18:00D. Machander1.918980D. Oborny1.801111113LSep 17 · 20:59D. Oborny2.20512991V. Zidek1.61111011113WSep 17 · 20:00V. Zidek1.4451151182D. Oborny2.63118119113
L. Velicka10
LSep 11 · 21:29L. Velicka1.6711471692M. Blejchar2.108111114113WSep 11 · 20:00L. Velicka1.801111314113R. Adam1.91913111252WSep 11 · 19:30P. Osvald2.10118681L. Velicka1.6781111113WSep 11 · 18:00L. Velicka1.7311811113M. Blejchar2.00711741LSep 8 · 21:29R. Vavrecka1.9191111113L. Velicka1.80116461WSep 8 · 20:00R. Vavrecka1.8312871172L. Velicka1.831011115113WSep 8 · 19:00T. Milota2.38651161L. Velicka1.5311116113LSep 8 · 18:30L. Velicka1.7341111892R. Adam2.00116711113WSep 7 · 16:59O. Hradil1.61111181192L. Velicka2.20138113113LSep 7 · 16:30L. Velicka1.618970O. Hradil2.201111113
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